Friday, December 17, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 18 Predictions

While we only managed 5 winners for last week, this was good enough to be in the top 4% for the week on on footytips,and moved us into overall 202nd spot.  Our recent good form on the bet has continued with wins to Villa and Manchester United making up for the Everton non-result.

This week there's nothing out of the ordinary - smallish bets on Liverpool and Blackburn at home which should be rather safe.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T
Arsenal Stoke City77%15%8%
Birmingham City Newcastle United47%29% 24%
Blackburn Rovers West Ham United58%25%17%
Blackpool Tottenham Hotspur25%29% 46%
Chelsea Manchester United42%30% 28%
LiverpoolFulham 70%19%11%
Manchester City Everton51%28%21%
Sunderland Bolton Wanderers48%29% 23%
West Bromwich Albion Wolverhampton Wanderers53%27% 20%
Wigan Athletic Aston Villa26%30%44%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 19 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, we tipped 5 of 7 winners to move into the top 1% overall on on footytips. To date I can't remember being in the top 1% for both A-League and EPL at the same time - so something of a milestone.  Not such a good week on the betting though, the only highlight being North Queensland's win over Sydney on Wednesday night.

No surprises this week - a couple of small bets on rank outsiders Perth and North Queensland - I'll be happy if either of those get up.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
Adelaide UnitedMelbourne Heart Hindmarsh Stadium46% 26%28%
New ZealandNewcastle JetsAMI Stadium 41%26% 33%
Melbourne VictoryPerth GloryAAMI Park 50%25% 25%
North QueenslandQueensland Roar Dairy Farmers Stadium40% 26%34%
Gold CoastCentral Coast MarinersSkilled Park 43%26% 31%
Central Coast MarinersNorth Queensland Bluetongue Stadium50% 25%25%
Perth GloryAdelaide Unitednib Stadium 44%26% 30%

Friday, December 10, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 17 Predictions

Tipping 6 winners last week saw us jump about 25 places in the top 1% of all tippers on footytips.  For the first time in a while we made a decent return for the week with bets on Blackburn and Man City saluting.

Not many surprises this week - if anything I think Chelsea looks like a good bet in a London derby

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T
Aston Villa West Bromwich Albion59%25% 16%
Bolton Wanderers Blackburn Rovers41%30% 29%
Everton Wigan Athletic73%17%9%
FulhamSunderland 45%29%25%
Manchester United Arsenal58%25%17%
Newcastle United Liverpool20%27%52%
Stoke City Blackpool56%26%18%
Tottenham Hotspur Chelsea25%29%46%
West Ham United Manchester City23%29%48%
Wolverhampton Wanderers Birmingham City38%31%31%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 18 Predictions

Last week we tipped 3 of 6 winners, good enough to move us into the top 2% of all tippers on footytips.  We were unfortunate not to collect a large amount on the Victory game as they led going into the 93rd minute, but then again they were 2-0 down so they were lucky to hit the lead at all.

This week we tip the nominal away team, being Melbourne Victory against their hometown rivals Heart.  Apart from this game, we are betting on all games this weekend, with bets on North Queensland, Wellington, Sydney and Perth.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
Adelaide UnitedNorth Queensland Hindmarsh Stadium47% 25%28%
Melbourne HeartMelbourne VictoryAAMI Park 32%26% 42%
Gold CoastNew ZealandSkilled Park 52%24% 24%
Sydney FCQueensland Roar Sydney Football Stadium45% 26%29%
Perth GloryCentral Coast Marinersnib Stadium 42%26% 32%
Newcastle JetsGold Coast EnergyAustralia Stadium41% 26%32%
North QueenslandSydney FCDairy Farmers Stadium 40%26% 34%

Friday, December 3, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 16 Predictions

EPL tipping has gone quite well in the hiatus, we know sit in the top 1% of all tippers on footytips. From memory we've never been so high on the ladder so early into the season - hopefully we can keep this up and really aim high by the end of the season.

No surprises this week in the tips - in fact comparing our probs with the bookie prices there is very little difference - so no bets at all this week.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T
Aston Villa West Bromwich Albion62%23% 15%
Bolton Wanderers Blackburn Rovers43%30% 27%
Everton Wigan Athletic73%17%9%
Fulham Sunderland47%29%24%
Manchester United Arsenal58%25%17%
Newcastle United Liverpool22%28%50%
Stoke City Blackpool55%26%18%
Tottenham Hotspur Chelsea25%29%46%
West Ham United Manchester City24%29% 46%
Wolverhampton Wanderers Birmingham City39%30% 30%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 17 Predictions

It's been a while since I last post on here due to my laptop's surprise sabatical, so thought I'd quivkly post on here while I had the chance.

The A-League tipping has been going well, the betting not so well - although a nice win by North Queesnland away to Gold Coast at odds of $4.60 clawed us back somewhat.

This week sees a 6-game round, as per usual we've gone with all home teams - even in tonight's game featuring Victory hosting table-topping Brisbane, and Wellington hosting a red-hot Adelaide. A decent bet on Melbourne tonight too, though seeing as I'm sitting on a ticket with Brisbane to top the table at the end of the seeing at odds of $51, I won't be too fussed if Brisbane win tonight.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
Melbourne VictoryQueensland Roar AAMI Park47%25% 28%
Central Coast MarinersSydney FC Bluetongue Stadium44% 26%30%
North QueenslandNewcastle Jets Dairy Farmers Stadium46% 26%28%
New ZealandAdelaide United Westpac Stadium39%26% 35%
Gold CoastMelbourne Heart Skilled Park46%26% 28%
Melbourne HeartNewcastle Jets AAMI Park47%25% 27%

Friday, November 12, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 12 Predictions

As with the A-League, it was a sub-standard performance in the EPL last week - only managing to get 4 of 10 games correct - yet that was still good enough for the top 14% for the week, and still top 3% overall on footytips.

 Not many surprises this week, and the only bet being a big one on Chelsea at small odds to beat Sunderland. And I wouldn't mind at all if that bet lost.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T
Aston Villa Manchester United19%27% 54%
Chelsea Sunderland86%10%4%
EvertonArsenal 33%31%36%
Manchester City Birmingham City68%21% 12%
Newcastle United Fulham43%30%27%
Stoke City Liverpool21%28%51%
Tottenham Hotspur Blackburn Rovers57%25% 17%
West Ham United Blackpool49%28%23%
Wigan Athletic West Bromwich Albion39%31% 31%
Wolverhampton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers39%30% 30%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 14 Predictions

Laptop issues meant I missed putting up last week's predictions - for the record it was a below-par week only managing 3 from 7 tips, although we still sit in the top 6% on footytips.

Another 7-game round this week - and a rarity in that we've tipped an away side, with the model saying Central Coast are in good enough form to win away in New Zealand.  Some medium-sized bets on Heart, Newcastle and Perth make this round a little more inetresting.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
Gold CoastSydney FCSkilled Park 42%26% 32%
New ZealandCentral Coast Mariners Westpac Stadium36%26% 37%
Newcastle JetsAdelaide United EnergyAustralia Stadium42% 26%32%
Melbourne HeartQueensland Roar AAMI Park43%26% 31%
Perth GloryMelbourne Victory nib Stadium40%26% 34%
Newcastle JetsQueensland Roar EnergyAustralia Stadium40% 26%34%
Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners AAMI Park47%25% 28%

Friday, October 29, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 10 Predictions

Last week was more or less and average week, getting 6 or the 10 tips correct.  As it stood the suggested bets of Chelsea and Liverpool both won, I should have stuck by the model it seems.

No surprises this week, it appears a pretty obvious round for tipping.  A few bets have been thrown up though - namely on Aston Villa, Everton, Fulham, and Manchester United.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T
Arsenal West Ham United82%12%6%
Aston Villa Birmingham City62%23% 14%
Blackburn Rovers Chelsea12%21%67%
Blackpool West Bromwich Albion39%31% 31%
Bolton Wanderers Liverpool21%28%51%
Everton Stoke City67%21%12%
Fulham Wigan Athletic59%25%16%
Manchester United Tottenham Hotspur73%18% 10%
Newcastle United Sunderland44%30%26%
Wolverhampton Wanderers Manchester City22%28% 49%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 12 Predictions

In a shortened round we tipped 2 for 4 game, and held our position in the top 3% on footytips.

This week we're again tipping all home teams in an extended round of 7 games, although I've had to make some minor adjustments to the model given that two teams are hosting matches on neutral ground.  So Central Coast at Sydney and Newcastle at Port Macquarie I'm treating as not quite a home team, but definitely not away - since they're expected to have the bulk of the crowd behind them and not have to travel as far as their opponents. 

On the betting front we'll likely be having bets on Victory, Sydney FC and North Queensland.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
Melbourne VictoryAdelaide United Etihad Stadium50%25% 26%
Central Coast MarinersPerth Glory Sydney Football Stadium43% 26%31%
Sydney FCQueensland Roar Sydney Football Stadium47% 25%28%
Newcastle JetsMelbourne Heart Port Macquarie38% 26%35%
North QueenslandGold Coast Dairy Farmers Stadium42% 26%32%
New ZealandQueensland Roar Westpac Stadium38%26% 35%
Perth GloryMelbourne Heart nib Stadium45%26% 29%

Friday, October 22, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 9 Predictions

Last week we got 5 of the results correct, the 5 we missed all being draws.  So even though we lost one on Manchetser United's draw, we managed to tip everton at home against a flatering Liverpool.  We managed to place in the top 8% for the week and 10% overall on footytips.

No real surprises this week - I've tipped Arsernal away to Manchester City in what should eb the match of the round.  A couple of small bets on Chelsea and Liverpool which I might leave alone, due to the small odds in Chelsea's game and the undertainty around Liverpool.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T
Birmingham City Blackpool51%28%21%
Chelsea Wolverhampton Wanderers90%7% 3%
Liverpool Blackburn Rovers68%20% 12%
Manchester City Arsenal34%31%36%
Stoke City Manchester United12%21% 67%
Sunderland Aston Villa31%31%39%
Tottenham Hotspur Everton44%30%26%
West Bromwich Albion Fulham42%30%28%
West Ham United Newcastle United47%29% 24%
Wigan Athletic Bolton Wanderers39%30% 31%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 11 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, getting 3 results correct - good enough to be in the top 4% for the week and top 3% overall on footytips.  On the betting we broke even, collecting 2 out of 4 bets.

This week's round is back to 5 games, although the 5th game is on a Wednesday.  As usual we tip all home teams - if it ain't broke...

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
Adelaide UnitedNew Zealand Hindmarsh Stadium50% 25%25%
Melbourne HeartGold CoastAAMI Park 44%26% 30%
Queensland RoarMelbourne Victory Suncorp Stadium41%26% 33%
Perth GlorySydney FCnib Stadium 43%26% 31%
Newcastle JetsNorth Queensland EnergyAustralia Stadium44% 26%30%

Friday, October 15, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 8 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, tipping 6 winners - missing out on the 3 draws and Liverpool's shock loss at home to Blackpool.  Against a footytips average of 4.3 this was good enough for the top 4% of the week.  Unfortunately Liverpool's loss hurt us in the hip pocket as well, though wins to Man City and Chelsea went some way to minimize the damage.

 No real surprises this week, or bets either - except I rate Manchester United a lot better than the bookies do (even though they're only offering $1.30) - so a decent bet on them which should hopefully hold up.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T2
Arsenal Birmingham City79%14%7%
Aston Villa Chelsea18%26%57%
Blackburn Rovers Sunderland53%27%20%
Blackpool Manchester City23%28%49%
Bolton Wanderers Stoke City43%30%27%
EvertonLiverpool 39%30%31%
Fulham Tottenham Hotspur34%31% 36%
Manchester United West Bromwich Albion86%10% 4%
Newcastle United Wigan Athletic53%27%20%
Wolverhampton Wanderers West Ham United43%30%27%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 10 Predictions

We only managed to tip 2 for the last round, yet strangely enough that was good enough for the top 19% for the week on footytips and means we're still in the top 5% overall.  Our switch to the "away" team for the first time this year proved a hex as Melbourne Heart beat Melbourne victory in the first ever true local derby of the A-League.

No doubt spurned by straying outside the line, we go back to tipping all home teams this week.   We're also betting quite a few games as well, with wagers on North Queensland as always, Victory, Newcastle and the Gold Coast.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
North QueenslandPerth Glory Dairy Farmers Stadium42% 26%32%
Melbourne VictorySydney FCEtihad Stadium 46%26% 28%
Queensland RoarNewcastle JetsSuncorp Stadium 49%25% 26%
New ZealandMelbourne HeartWestpac Stadium 40%26% 34%
Gold CoastAdelaide UnitedSkilled Park 46%26% 29%
Queensland RoarCentral Coast Mariners Suncorp Stadium43% 26%31%

Friday, October 1, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 7 Predictions

Well, last week was officially the worst week I've had since I started tipping the EPL - managing only 1 from 10 tips correct. When Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool all fail to win then you know you're in trouble.  Still, the average on footytips was only 1.6 so it wasn't a complete disaster.

No real surprises this week, all the top teams look to have easy games so with any luck things return to normal this week.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T2
Birmingham City Everton28%30%42%
ChelseaArsenal 61%24%15%
Liverpool Blackpool80%14%7%
Manchester City Newcastle United69%20% 11%
Stoke City Blackburn Rovers42%30% 28%
Sunderland Manchester United11%19% 70%
Tottenham Hotspur Aston Villa48%29%23%
West Bromwich Albion Bolton Wanderers48%29% 24%
West Ham United Fulham38%31%31%
Wigan Athletic Wolverhampton Wanderers42%30% 28%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 9 Predictions

Last week got off to a flyer, tipping the first 3 results correct, then we missed the following 3 due to them being draws.  Small bets on Newcastle and North Queensland failed to get up, but we're still well up for the season so nothing to worry about there.

This round goes back to 5 games, with the Melbourne derby being pushed back a week due to the AFL grand final replay.  This games marks the first game this year I've tipped an away side, although only on a technicality as it's Heart's home game, and we're tipping Victory.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
Gold CoastNew ZealandSkilled Park 50%25% 25%
Central Coast MarinersNorth Queensland Bluetongue Stadium49% 25%26%
Perth GloryQueensland Roar nib Stadium44%26% 30%
Sydney FCAdelaide United Sydney Football Stadium48% 25%27%
Melbourne HeartMelbourne Victory AAMI Park32%26% 41%

Friday, September 24, 2010

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 8 Predictions

A pretty good week last week in the A-League, getting 3 results correct and moving into the top 3% overall on footytips  Also good wins by Newcastle and Melbourne Heart made it a profitable week.

Not many surprises this week, again going with all home teams.  And no betting either - so we can just sit back and hope that home teams win for tipping.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
Gold CoastNewcastle Jets Skilled Park48%25%27%
New ZealandNorth Queensland Westpac Stadium42%26%32%
Adelaide UnitedPerth Glory Hindmarsh Stadium43%26%31%
Queensland RoarMelbourne Heart Suncorp Stadium45%26%29%
Newcastle JetsMelbourne Victory EnergyAustralia Stadium37%26%36%
Sydney FCGold Coast Sydney Football Stadium47%25%27%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 6 Predictions

Not a lot to report in the EPL - tipped 5 from 10 results last week which was par for the course.

A few bets on the home teams this week are looming, particularly Liverpool and Birmingham

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T2
Arsenal West Bromwich Albion81%13% 6%
Birmingham City Wigan Athletic57%26%17%
Blackpool Blackburn Rovers35%31% 34%
Bolton Wanderers Manchester United10%18% 72%
FulhamEverton 32%31%37%
Liverpool Sunderland76%16%8%
Manchester City Chelsea20%27%54%
Newcastle United Stoke City45%29%26%
West Ham United Tottenham Hotspur26%29% 45%
Wolverhampton Wanderers Aston Villa27%30%43%

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

AFL 2010 Season - Brownlow Medal Predictions

Here are my Brownlow predictions for this year. Bit of a strange one this year as I more or less only rate 2 players any chance to win it - Swan and Ablett.

This year I've got 50 individual player stats at my disposal, for every player in every game. Obviously not all of these stats will come into the model but it is a big increase in previous years where I had maybe a dozen stats.

If you download the link below it should open a spreadsheet with the usual Brownlow betting options available - overall winners, number of winners, winning numbers of votes, top votegetter in the team, and various head to head and group betting options. With a lot more effort then it would seem it takes, I've been able to provide - for every player in every game - their chance of polling 3, 2 or 1 votes - which obviously leads to their expected votes per game, and also the chance that player receives any votes. With this you can narrow down to certain players, and on the night track to see if they are ahead or behind expectations - potentially useful for those who want to bet in-play.

Like I say, never before has my model come up with only 2 possibilities, though I've looked game by game and seem pretty happy with what the model is coming up with. I'm pretty hesitant to release these because of this situation, but my model has been pretty good in the past - as always though I can't stress highly enough that these predictions should at best be used as a guide, and certainly not the be all and end all in terms of placing your own Brownlow bets.

So how has the model gone in the past? Pretty good if I say so myself. Last year I rated Ablett a $1.33 chance - much shorter than the $3 available on the day. There's also a lot of value to be found in the exotic options - for example last year I rated Winderlich a $5.80 chance to win Essendon's count, big value seeing as I was able to snap up $34 on the day - even though he ended up sharing the honours with Jobe Watson, it was still a great result.

Anyway have a browse and if there's any queries please let me know. Also if there are any other betting options you'd like to see let me know too and I'll do my best to update the sheet.

2010 Brownlow Medal Predictions

Player Exp Votes% Chance
Dane Swan - CW32.5 50.2%
Gary Ablett - GE32.3 49.5%
Luke Hodge - HW19.0Daylight
Leigh Montagna - SK18.3Daylight
Matthew Boyd - WB17.3Daylight
Chris Judd - CA16.2Daylight
Brent Harvey - KA15.7Daylight
Brendon Goddard - SK15.2 Daylight
Paul Chapman - GE13.9Daylight
Michael Barlow - FR13.6Daylight
Jonathan Brown - BL13.2Daylight
Scott Thompson - AD12.4Daylight
Joel Selwood - GE11.9Daylight
Aaron Sandilands - FR11.3 Daylight
Matthew Pavlich - FR11.2 Daylight
Adam Cooney - WB11.0Daylight
Adam Goodes - SY10.9Daylight
Lance Franklin - HW10.8Daylight
Scott Pendlebury - CW10.6 Daylight
Nick Dal Santo - SK10.6Daylight
Andrew Swallow - KA10.2Daylight
Kieren Jack - SY10.2Daylight
Jobe Watson - ES10.0Daylight

Friday, September 10, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 4 Predictions

The previous round prior to the international break saw 5 of 10 games predicted correctly, pretty much par for the course according to footytips. No bets at all last round, so nothing to report there.

This week sees no real surprises, a small bet on Arsenal perhaps although at short odds so not really much action this week.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T2
Arsenal Bolton Wanderers81%13% 6%
Birmingham City Liverpool20%27%53%
Everton Manchester United22%28% 49%
Fulham Wolverhampton Wanderers55%26% 19%
Manchester City Blackburn Rovers60%24% 16%
Newcastle United Blackpool54%27%19%
Stoke City Aston Villa30%30%40%
West Bromwich Albion Tottenham Hotspur26%30% 44%
West Ham United Chelsea9%17%74%
Wigan Athletic Sunderland40%30%30%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 6 Predictions

Another decent week last week - getting3 of the 5 results correct and also landing the decent bet on Central Coast over Melbourne on the Friday night.

This week sees a 6-game round for the first time this season, with Melbourne Victory playing Wellington on Wednesday.  Again we tip all home teams, although only just tipping Wellington slightly over Sydney.  Not much in terms of betting this week, technically we'd be betting on Newcastle against Adelaide, although given their club's situation at the moment, I'll be sitting that one out.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T2
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne Heart Bluetongue Stadium47% 25%28%
New ZealandSydney FC Westpac Stadium36.9% 26%36.7%
Adelaide UnitedNewcastle Jets Hindmarsh Stadium48% 25%27%
Melbourne VictoryQueensland Roar AAMI Park48%25% 27%
Perth GloryGold Coastnib Stadium 45%26% 29%
Melbourne Victory
New Zealand
AAMI Park66%12% 22%

Friday, September 3, 2010

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 5 Predictions

Back to an average week in tipping, only getting the Friday night result correct last week.  However the bet on that game made another profitable week, thanks in part to avoiding the Melbourne Heart game which would have ended in heartbreak, given Perth scored a dubious 94th minute penatly to square it up.

This week as usual we tip all home games, with a decent bet tonight on Central Coast -should that get up then it will be another profitable week.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T2
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne Victory Bluetongue Stadium42% 26%31%
Melbourne HeartNorth Queensland AAMI Park47%25% 28%
Sydney FCAdelaide United Sydney Football Stadium49% 25%26%
Newcastle JetsQueensland Roar EnergyAustralia Stadium41% 26%33%
Perth GloryNew Zealandnib Stadium 51%24% 25%

Friday, August 27, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 3 Predictions

A pretty average week in EPL tipping, getting 5 of the games right and losing both the bets on Everton and West Ham.  Still, with 10 tips so far for the year we're already sitting in the top 15% on footytips, and that will only improve as the season progresses.

Not much to get excited about this week - I've tipped all the favourites, and for the first time in a long time there's no games suggested for me to bet on.  Probably not such a bad thing that from time to time my model is pretty close to what the bookies are saying.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T2
Aston Villa Everton41%30%29%
Blackburn Rovers Arsenal20%27%53%
BlackpoolFulham 35%31%35%
Bolton Wanderers Birmingham City43%30%27%
Chelsea Stoke City87%9%4%
Liverpool West Bromwich Albion78%15% 7%
Manchester United West Ham United88%9%4%
Sunderland Manchester City25%29%46%
Tottenham Hotspur Wigan Athletic75%16%8%
Wolverhampton Wanderers Newcastle United44%30% 27%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 4 Predictions

Finally a great week in the A-League last week - getting the first 4 games correct, and only missing out on a perfect week due to the drawn game between Melbourne Victory and North Queensland - one of the stranger games I've ever watched with 3 penalties and 2 red cards awarded.  Still, our win on Brisbane Roar over Sydney more than made up for the 2 smaller bets which lost, making it a great week overall.

As usual we're tipping all home games this week, and betting again on Brisbane and North Queensland.  Melbourne Heart are technically a bet as well, though I might give this game a miss and wait til the Heart have played a few more games before betting on them.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T2
Queensland RoarNew ZealandSuncorp Stadium 51%25% 25%
North QueenslandAdelaide United Dairy Farmers Stadium44% 26%30%
Sydney FCCentral Coast Mariners Sydney Football Stadium46% 26%28%
Gold CoastMelbourne VictorySkilled Park 41%26% 33%
Melbourne HeartPerth GloryAAMI Park 44%26% 30%

Friday, August 20, 2010

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 3 Predictions

Well at least last week we improved in the A-League tipping, getting 1 game right were previously we had none.  That there has been 7 draws in the 10 games so far hasn't helped, as my rule of thumb is to never tip a draw.

Still, betting wise there were nice wins to be had on North Queensland and Perth against last year's grand finalists Sydney and Melbourne respectively.

This week sees us tipping all home teams again, and betting on Newcastle, Brisbane and North Queensland.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T2
Adelaide UnitedMelbourne Heart Hindmarsh Stadium44% 26%30%
Perth GloryNewcastle Jetsnib Stadium 49%25% 26%
Queensland RoarSydney FCSuncorp Stadium 42%26% 31%
New ZealandCentral Coast Mariners Westpac Stadium37% 26%36%
Melbourne VictoryNorth QueenslandAAMI Park 51%24% 24%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 2 Predictions

Apologies for not  posting my picks for the first week of the EPL - for the record we had 5 correct tips when the average on footytips was 4.5.

This week the only real curve-ball is we've tipped Liverpool to win away to Manchester City - I still don't rate City as high as the bookies, they'll need to start putting in some decent consistent performances against clubs like Liverpool before I do.

Home TeamAway Team Pr HomePr DrawPr Away
Arsenal Blackpool83%11%5%
Birmingham City Blackburn Rovers40%30% 30%
Everton Wolverhampton Wanderers72%18% 10%
Fulham Manchester United13%21% 66%
Manchester City Liverpool32%31%37%
Newcastle United Aston Villa25%29%46%
Stoke City Tottenham Hotspur29%30% 41%
West Bromwich Albion Sunderland45%29%25%
West Ham United Bolton Wanderers49%29% 23%
Wigan Athletic Chelsea7%14%78%

Thursday, August 12, 2010

EPL 2010-11 Season Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming English Premier League season.

The predictions come about through simulating the entire fixture for the upcoming season 100,000 times, based on ratings that are updated after each game.  Ratings at the start of the season are based on those at the end of last season - so things like off-season signings and pre-season form aren't taken into account.

Again it looks as though Chelsea and Manchester United are the only value for winning the Premiership - this was the case at the start of last season, and before too Long these were pretty safe bets.

Isolating a few other teams - Manchester City and Tottenham I've predicted to not go as well as last year, whereas the Merseysiders in Liverpool and Everton I've lobbed as going better.  Indeed, a quick guide to the points I expect teams to get is pretty close to the average they received in the last two season, so in a sense I expect a sort of regression to the mean rather than sustained improvement.  Tottenham improved 20 points last season, whereas Liverpool dipped 20 points - it's more than likely these teams will not keep those rates going this season.

That Manchester City are third favourite for the Premiership I find laughable - they finished 20 points behind winners Chelsea, and I'd find it impressive if they were able to bridge that gap in the space of one season.  Still, I suppose stranger things have happened.

TeamPointsPr Win Pr Win (Excl Big 4)
Chelsea88.5 45.4%N/A
Manchester United87.8 41.1%N/A
Arsenal77.4 7.5%N/A
Liverpool74.9 4.8%N/A
Everton65.30.6% 35.9%
Tottenham Hotspur61.5 0.3%21.8%
Aston Villa60.8 0.2%19.5%
Manchester City60 0.2%17.3%
Blackburn Rovers47.2 0.0%1.8%
Fulham45.40.0% 1.2%
Stoke City43.1 0.0%0.7%
Birmingham City41.5 0.0%0.5%
West Ham United40.4 0.0%0.3%
Sunderland39.1 0.0%0.3%
Newcastle United38.1 0.0%0.2%
West Bromwich Albion38 0.0%0.2%
Bolton Wanderers37.9 0.0%0.2%
Wolverhampton Wanderers36.6 0.0%0.1%
Wigan Athletic34.4 0.0%0.1%
Blackpool32.4 0.0%0.0%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 2 Predictions

Well off to a pretty ordinairy start, not getting a tip right out of the 5 opening games.  The fact that 4 of the games were draws doesn't help, as I never tip a draw in the A-league.

So onto Week 2 now, a bit of a surprise in that we've tipped North Queensland to beat Sydney FC, and they did impress in a 3-3 draw over in Perth, so with any luck they can cause a boilover here.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T2
New ZealandGold CoastWestpac Stadium 39%26% 35%
Newcastle JetsMelbourne Heart EnergyAustralia Stadium41% 26%32%
North QueenslandSydney FCDairy Farmers Stadium 40%26% 34%
Melbourne VictoryPerth GloryAAMI Park 49%25% 26%
Central Coast MarinersAdelaide United Bluetongue Stadium48% 25%27%

Thursday, August 5, 2010

A-League 2010 - 11 Season - Week 1 Predictions

Here are the first lot of tips for the 2010/11 season of the Hyundai A-League.  I've revised the model slightly over the off-season such that last year we would have finished in the top 10 of all tippers on footytips. Mind you we did actually finish 52nd so the old model was nothing to sneeze at.

Team 1Team 2VenuePr T1 Pr DrawPr T2
Melbourne HeartCentral Coast Mariners AAMI Park42.6%26.1% 31.3%
Adelaide UnitedNewcastle Jets Hindmarsh Stadium47.2% 25.3%27.4%
Perth GloryNorth Queensland nib Stadium47.4%25.3% 27.3%
Sydney FCMelbourne Victory Sydney Football Stadium43.3% 26.0%30.7%
Gold CoastQueensland Roar Skilled Park44.3% 25.9%29.9%

Hyundai A-League 2010 - 11 Season Predictions

Well it's been a while since I posted here - the letdown after the World Cup and general laziness in getting AFL tips up here a major factor.

But now that soccer / football seasons are about to start worldwide, motivation is high.  Also because these models seem to provide the best mix of betting profitability and easiness to update.

So here are my thoughts on the upcoming A-League season, starting tonight when new team Melbourne Heart take on Central Coast.  The table below may raise a few eyebrows, not so much the top 2 teams but just underneath.  Apart from Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC, there really hasn't been a team which has performed consistently season after season - as form is hard to come by and recent form tends to be over-exaggerated.  As such, I've rated teams like Central Coast and Brisbane Roar higher than the market does as they have done relatively well over time, and weren't too far from the finals last year.

Best of luck to those who follow these predictions!

TeamAvg PointsPr Win Minor Pr Win GF
Melbourne Victory50.8 28.3%24.4%
Sydney FC47.9 17.7%17.0%
Central Coast Mariners46.1 13.0%13.1%
Perth Glory44.1 8.5%9.0%
Queensland Roar44.1 8.5%9.2%
Gold Coast43.2 7.0%7.9%
Melbourne Heart42.5 6.2%7.1%
Adelaide United41.5 4.9%5.4%
North Queensland39.7 3.2%3.7%
Newcastle Jets37.7 1.8%2.3%
New Zealand34.7 0.7%0.9%

Saturday, July 10, 2010

World Cup Match Predictions - Final and 3rd-Place Playoff

Here are the predictions for the final of the World Cup, along with the 3rd-place playoff.

The model has gone fanatstically well throughout the World Cup - making around 30% ROI for the tournament, and even more if you were smart about which of the group games to bet on.

Probably not a lot of action betting-wise.  The Dutch are slight value as they have been throughout the tournament, so you could do a lot worse then back them to win in the 90 minutes.

StageTeam 1 Team 2Pr Team 1Pr Draw Pr Team 2
FinalNetherlands Spain31.7%33.9%34.5%
3rd PlaceUruguayGermany 18.3%29.6%52.1%

Monday, July 5, 2010

World Cup Match Predictions - Semi Finals

The Quarter-finals were another great result for the model - with collects on the wins by Germany, Netherlands and Spain.

So down to the last 4 now, and for the most part the model is in line with the bookmakers.  There may be an opportunity for a small bet on the draw in the Germany - Spain game, but you'll have to shop around to get good odds.

As always remember these predictions are to the end of 90 minutes.

StageTeam 1 Team 2Pr Team 1Pr Draw Pr Team 2
Semi FinalsUruguay Netherlands14%26%59%
Semi FinalsGermanySpain 28%33%38%

Thursday, July 1, 2010

World Cup Match Predictions - Quarter Finals

Down to the last 8 of the World Cup now, and the soccer model shows no signs of slowing down. Big bets, abd big wins, on Spain and teh Netherlands enough to see the model win 26% ROI alone on the Round of 16 games.

Keep in mind the predictions below are for the result at the end of 90 minutes

StageTeam 1 Team 2Pr Team 1Pr Draw Pr Team 2
Quarter FinalsUruguayGhana 55%28% 16%
Quarter FinalsNetherlandsBrazil 26%33% 41%
Quarter FinalsArgentinaGermany 35%34% 31%
Quarter FinalsParaguaySpain 8%18% 74%

Saturday, June 26, 2010

World Cup Match Predictions - Round of 16

Now half the teams have been eliminated, and we're down to the knockout stages.  As expected the 3rd round of games wasn't as profitable as the previous rounds - although they still broke even, and indeed if you were smart and left out dubious games like Mexico vs Uruguay, France vs South Africa and Portugal vs Brazil where the results didn't affect who went through, then you woudl have been well in front again.

The predictions below are for the games in the round of 16 - and keep in mind these predictions are for the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation time - pretty much all bookmakers will offer this market.

StageTeam 1 Team 2Pr Team 1Pr Draw Pr Team 2
Round of 16UruguayKorea Republic 53%29% 18%
Round of 16MexicoArgentina 22%32% 46%
Round of 16USAGhana 43%33% 24%
Round of 16EnglandGermany 35%34% 31%
Round of 16NetherlandsSlovakia 82%13% 5%
Round of 16JapanParaguay 30%34% 36%
Round of 16BrazilChile 61%26% 14%
Round of 16PortugalSpain 14%26% 59%

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

World Cup Match Predictions - Round 3

Well the model has gone fantastically  so far in the World Cup - making 54% ROI on the first 32 games played, and that includes backing favourites, long-shots and the draw as well.  The graph below shows how the profits have kept coming in betting to a constant kelly bank

Below are the predictions for the round 3 games of the World Cup - though I would advise to be extremely cautious bettign on any of these games given the stage of the tournament.  Some teams are already eliminated and will liekly play some 2nd-string players.  Some teams are assured of going through and will liekly rest key players.  And then there's the case of Group A where a draw between Mexico and Uruguay will see them both through at the expense of France and hosts South Africa -and to make thing even more interesting a win by Mexico would see them top the group and avoid Argentina in the round of 16 - so really who knows what will happen tonight.

StageTeam 1Team 2 Pr Team 1Pr DrawPr Team 2
GroupMexicoUruguay40% 33%27%
GroupFranceSouth Africa 39%33% 28%
GroupNigeriaKorea Republic 22%32% 46%
GroupGreeceArgentina 11%22% 67%
GroupSlovenia England11%22%67%
GroupUSA Algeria65%24%12%
GroupGhana Germany14%26%59%
GroupAustralia Serbia23%32%45%
GroupSlovakia Italy10%21%70%
GroupParaguay New Zealand63%24%12%
GroupDenmark Japan41%33%26%
GroupCameroon Netherlands5%12%84%
GroupPortugal Brazil11%22%67%
GroupKorea DPR Côte d'Ivoire12%23%65%
GroupChile Spain18%29%52%
Group SwitzerlandHonduras 46%32%22%

Friday, June 18, 2010

World Cup Tournament Predictions

As with the match predictions, these are better late than never.

Below I present the predictions of every team to make every stage of the World Cup.  I simulate the tournament 100,000 times, with each team's rating after every simulated match going up or down depending on the result of that game - hence if a minnow happens to progress deeply into the tournament their rating will have gone up accordingly.

Shown below is the probability of every team to top their group, qualify for the round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, final, and win the World Cup.  I'll update these as often as I remember to, but please note when I have said these predictions were last updated.

Current Prior to games on Monday 5th July

Group ATop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Mexico0.0%100.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
France0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Uruguay100.0% 100.0%100.0%100.0%22.7% 28.1%8.8%
South Africa0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Group BTop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Argentina100.0% 100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Korea Republic0.0% 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Greece0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Nigeria0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Group CTop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
England0.0%100.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
USA100.0%100.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slovenia0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Algeria0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Group DTop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Germany100.0% 100.0%100.0%100.0%33.8% 44.9%23.6%
Serbia0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Australia0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Ghana0.0%100.0% 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Group ETop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Netherlands100.0% 100.0%100.0%100.0%14.5% 71.9%36.7%
Denmark0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Japan0.0%100.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cameroon0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Group FTop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Italy0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Paraguay100.0% 100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Slovakia0.0% 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
New Zealand0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Group GTop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Brazil100.0% 100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Portugal0.0% 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Côte d'Ivoire0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Korea DPR0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Group HTop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Spain100.0%100.0% 100.0%100.0%29.1%55.1% 30.9%
Chile0.0%100.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Switzerland0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Honduras0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

World Cup Match Predictions

A little late I'll admit, but better late than never.  I'd recently gone over how my predictions for the World Cup matches would have gone and was blown away - I'd be in front to the tune of 80% ROI so far - had I bet from the start.  Sadly I only started better as of last night - but still great wins to Greece over Nigeria and Mexico over France have shown some material profit.  Also previously wins to South Korea over Greece, Slovenia over Algeria, Japan over Cameroon and New Zealand's opening draw have seen the profitability of the model sky-rocket.

As they say though, talk is cheap.  So without further ado here are my predictions for the group matches of the world cup.  The matches in yellow below will changes slightly depending on the results of each team's previous game - and this will be updated in time.

StageTeam 1Team 2 Pr Team 1Pr DrawPr Team 2
GroupSouth AfricaMexico 23%32% 45%
GroupUruguayFrance 31%34% 35%
GroupArgentinaNigeria 64%24% 12%
GroupKorea RepublicGreece 49%31% 20%
GroupEnglandUSA 58%27% 15%
GroupAlgeriaSlovenia 17%28% 55%
GroupGermanyAustralia 65%23% 12%
GroupSerbiaGhana 39%33% 27%
GroupNetherlandsDenmark 74%18% 8%
GroupJapanCameroon 39%33% 28%
GroupItalyParaguay 52%30% 18%
GroupNew ZealandSlovakia23%32% 45%
GroupCôte d'IvoirePortugal 23%32% 45%
GroupBrazilKorea DPR 93%5% 2%
GroupHondurasChile 16%28% 57%
GroupSpainSwitzerland 79%15% 6%
GroupSouth AfricaUruguay 28%34% 38%
GroupFranceMexico 29%34% 37%
GroupGreeceNigeria 31%34% 36%
GroupArgentinaKorea Republic 50%30% 19%
GroupGermanySerbia 59%27% 15%
GroupSloveniaUSA 21%31% 48%
GroupEnglandAlgeria 86%10% 4%
GroupGhanaAustralia 33%34% 33%
GroupNetherlandsJapan 77%16% 7%
GroupCameroonDenmark 24%33% 43%
GroupSlovakiaParaguay 20%30% 50%
GroupItalyNew Zealand 79%15% 6%
GroupBrazilCôte d'Ivoire 78%16% 6%
GroupPortugalKorea DPR 75%18% 8%
GroupChileSwitzerland 46%32% 22%
GroupSpainHonduras 79%15% 6%
GroupFranceSouth Africa 45%32% 23%
GroupNigeriaKorea Republic 22%32% 46%
GroupGreeceArgentina 11%23% 67%
GroupSloveniaEngland 9%20% 72%
GroupUSAAlgeria 69%21% 10%
GroupGhanaGermany 11%23% 65%
GroupAustraliaSerbia 28%33% 39%
GroupSlovakiaItaly 10%21% 69%
GroupParaguayNew Zealand 62%25% 13%
GroupDenmarkJapan 37%34% 29%
GroupCameroonNetherlands 5%14% 81%
GroupPortugalBrazil 10%22% 68%
GroupKorea DPRCôte d'Ivoire 12%24% 64%
GroupChileSpain 17%29% 54%
GroupSwitzerlandHonduras 48%31% 21%