Friday, September 24, 2010

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 8 Predictions

A pretty good week last week in the A-League, getting 3 results correct and moving into the top 3% overall on footytips  Also good wins by Newcastle and Melbourne Heart made it a profitable week.

Not many surprises this week, again going with all home teams.  And no betting either - so we can just sit back and hope that home teams win for tipping.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
Gold CoastNewcastle Jets Skilled Park48%25%27%
New ZealandNorth Queensland Westpac Stadium42%26%32%
Adelaide UnitedPerth Glory Hindmarsh Stadium43%26%31%
Queensland RoarMelbourne Heart Suncorp Stadium45%26%29%
Newcastle JetsMelbourne Victory EnergyAustralia Stadium37%26%36%
Sydney FCGold Coast Sydney Football Stadium47%25%27%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 6 Predictions

Not a lot to report in the EPL - tipped 5 from 10 results last week which was par for the course.

A few bets on the home teams this week are looming, particularly Liverpool and Birmingham

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T2
Arsenal West Bromwich Albion81%13% 6%
Birmingham City Wigan Athletic57%26%17%
Blackpool Blackburn Rovers35%31% 34%
Bolton Wanderers Manchester United10%18% 72%
FulhamEverton 32%31%37%
Liverpool Sunderland76%16%8%
Manchester City Chelsea20%27%54%
Newcastle United Stoke City45%29%26%
West Ham United Tottenham Hotspur26%29% 45%
Wolverhampton Wanderers Aston Villa27%30%43%

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

AFL 2010 Season - Brownlow Medal Predictions

Here are my Brownlow predictions for this year. Bit of a strange one this year as I more or less only rate 2 players any chance to win it - Swan and Ablett.

This year I've got 50 individual player stats at my disposal, for every player in every game. Obviously not all of these stats will come into the model but it is a big increase in previous years where I had maybe a dozen stats.

If you download the link below it should open a spreadsheet with the usual Brownlow betting options available - overall winners, number of winners, winning numbers of votes, top votegetter in the team, and various head to head and group betting options. With a lot more effort then it would seem it takes, I've been able to provide - for every player in every game - their chance of polling 3, 2 or 1 votes - which obviously leads to their expected votes per game, and also the chance that player receives any votes. With this you can narrow down to certain players, and on the night track to see if they are ahead or behind expectations - potentially useful for those who want to bet in-play.

Like I say, never before has my model come up with only 2 possibilities, though I've looked game by game and seem pretty happy with what the model is coming up with. I'm pretty hesitant to release these because of this situation, but my model has been pretty good in the past - as always though I can't stress highly enough that these predictions should at best be used as a guide, and certainly not the be all and end all in terms of placing your own Brownlow bets.

So how has the model gone in the past? Pretty good if I say so myself. Last year I rated Ablett a $1.33 chance - much shorter than the $3 available on the day. There's also a lot of value to be found in the exotic options - for example last year I rated Winderlich a $5.80 chance to win Essendon's count, big value seeing as I was able to snap up $34 on the day - even though he ended up sharing the honours with Jobe Watson, it was still a great result.

Anyway have a browse and if there's any queries please let me know. Also if there are any other betting options you'd like to see let me know too and I'll do my best to update the sheet.

2010 Brownlow Medal Predictions

Player Exp Votes% Chance
Dane Swan - CW32.5 50.2%
Gary Ablett - GE32.3 49.5%
Luke Hodge - HW19.0Daylight
Leigh Montagna - SK18.3Daylight
Matthew Boyd - WB17.3Daylight
Chris Judd - CA16.2Daylight
Brent Harvey - KA15.7Daylight
Brendon Goddard - SK15.2 Daylight
Paul Chapman - GE13.9Daylight
Michael Barlow - FR13.6Daylight
Jonathan Brown - BL13.2Daylight
Scott Thompson - AD12.4Daylight
Joel Selwood - GE11.9Daylight
Aaron Sandilands - FR11.3 Daylight
Matthew Pavlich - FR11.2 Daylight
Adam Cooney - WB11.0Daylight
Adam Goodes - SY10.9Daylight
Lance Franklin - HW10.8Daylight
Scott Pendlebury - CW10.6 Daylight
Nick Dal Santo - SK10.6Daylight
Andrew Swallow - KA10.2Daylight
Kieren Jack - SY10.2Daylight
Jobe Watson - ES10.0Daylight

Friday, September 10, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 4 Predictions

The previous round prior to the international break saw 5 of 10 games predicted correctly, pretty much par for the course according to footytips. No bets at all last round, so nothing to report there.

This week sees no real surprises, a small bet on Arsenal perhaps although at short odds so not really much action this week.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T2
Arsenal Bolton Wanderers81%13% 6%
Birmingham City Liverpool20%27%53%
Everton Manchester United22%28% 49%
Fulham Wolverhampton Wanderers55%26% 19%
Manchester City Blackburn Rovers60%24% 16%
Newcastle United Blackpool54%27%19%
Stoke City Aston Villa30%30%40%
West Bromwich Albion Tottenham Hotspur26%30% 44%
West Ham United Chelsea9%17%74%
Wigan Athletic Sunderland40%30%30%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 6 Predictions

Another decent week last week - getting3 of the 5 results correct and also landing the decent bet on Central Coast over Melbourne on the Friday night.

This week sees a 6-game round for the first time this season, with Melbourne Victory playing Wellington on Wednesday.  Again we tip all home teams, although only just tipping Wellington slightly over Sydney.  Not much in terms of betting this week, technically we'd be betting on Newcastle against Adelaide, although given their club's situation at the moment, I'll be sitting that one out.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T2
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne Heart Bluetongue Stadium47% 25%28%
New ZealandSydney FC Westpac Stadium36.9% 26%36.7%
Adelaide UnitedNewcastle Jets Hindmarsh Stadium48% 25%27%
Melbourne VictoryQueensland Roar AAMI Park48%25% 27%
Perth GloryGold Coastnib Stadium 45%26% 29%
Melbourne Victory
New Zealand
AAMI Park66%12% 22%

Friday, September 3, 2010

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 5 Predictions

Back to an average week in tipping, only getting the Friday night result correct last week.  However the bet on that game made another profitable week, thanks in part to avoiding the Melbourne Heart game which would have ended in heartbreak, given Perth scored a dubious 94th minute penatly to square it up.

This week as usual we tip all home games, with a decent bet tonight on Central Coast -should that get up then it will be another profitable week.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T2
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne Victory Bluetongue Stadium42% 26%31%
Melbourne HeartNorth Queensland AAMI Park47%25% 28%
Sydney FCAdelaide United Sydney Football Stadium49% 25%26%
Newcastle JetsQueensland Roar EnergyAustralia Stadium41% 26%33%
Perth GloryNew Zealandnib Stadium 51%24% 25%