EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 19 Predictions

The mid-week predictions have been updated with the results of the weekend round of games

Last week we tipped 5 of the 9 results correctly, with the Wigan vs Bolton game being postponed due to weather. This moves us to up 394th place overall on footytips, out of 26,000 tippers there.

There are two rounds in close succession this week, with one round of games played (English time) Saturday & Sunday, and another from Monday to Wednesday.  Obviously the ratings and results of teams in the mid-week games will change slightly based on what happens over the weekend, however I'll put the predictions for both rounds up now and change the mid-week games after the weekend.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
26/12/2009	Arsenal	Aston Villa	64%	22%	14%
26/12/2009	Birmingham City	Chelsea	10%	18%	72%
26/12/2009	Burnley	Bolton Wanderers	33%	30%	36%
26/12/2009	Fulham	Tottenham Hotspur	39%	30%	31%
26/12/2009	Hull City	Manchester United	7%	14%	79%
26/12/2009	Liverpool	Wolverhampton Wanderers	88%	9%	4%
26/12/2009	Manchester City	Stoke City	59%	25%	17%
26/12/2009	Sunderland	Everton	25%	29%	46%
27/12/2009	West Ham United	Portsmouth	49%	28%	23%
27/12/2009	Wigan Athletic	Blackburn Rovers	41%	30%	29%

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
28/12/2009	Blackburn Rovers	Sunderland	53%	27%	20%
28/12/2009	Chelsea	Fulham	80%	13%	7%
28/12/2009	Everton	Burnley	75%	16%	9%
28/12/2009	Stoke City	Birmingham City	44%	29%	26%
28/12/2009	Tottenham Hotspur	West Ham United	61%	23%	16%
28/12/2009	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Manchester City	21%	28%	51%
29/12/2009	Aston Villa	Liverpool	30%	30%	40%
29/12/2009	Bolton Wanderers	Hull City	57%	25%	17%
30/12/2009	Portsmouth	Arsenal	13%	22%	65%
30/12/2009	Manchester United	Wigan Athletic	87%	9%	4%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 20 Predictions

We tipped the first 3 games of last round incorrectly then got the next 3 right, so we move into 81st position overall on footytips.  Quite bizzarre as I'm tipping 45% for the season in the A-League, yet I'm higher up the ladder than I am for EPL where I'm tipping 55% - just goes to show how tough it is to get results correct in the A-League.

Back to a normal 5 games this round, with the 5th game being played on Thursday, New Year's Eve.  This week we tip 2 away teams, including Newcastle who have just won 4 games in a row, the first team to do that in the A-League this season - good to see that the model has picked up on this form as it is so hard to come by.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
26/12/2009	Gold Coast	Queensland Roar	Skilled Park	40%	26%	32%
26/12/2009	Perth Glory	Newcastle Jets	Members Equity Stadium	36%	27%	37%
27/12/2009	Sydney FC	Adelaide United	Sydney Football Stadium	47%	26%	28%
27/12/2009	North Queensland	Melbourne Victory	Dairy Farmers Stadium	30%	26%	44%
31/12/2009	Central Coast Mariners	New Zealand	Bluetongue Stadium	48%	25%	26%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 15 Predictions

I actually missed two rounds of posting EPL predictions while away, and it was a mixed bag as far as the tips went - the weekend matches I managed just 1 correct result from 10, however this turned around mid week in tipping 7 from 8.  These results saw us move back into the top 2% overall footytips.

A fairly standard week ahead this week tipping-wise, the away teams we have gone for this week are the big 3 teams playing away, and up-and-coming Tottenham

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
19/12/2009	Arsenal	Hull City	87%	9%	4%
19/12/2009	Aston Villa	Stoke City	66%	21%	13%
19/12/2009	Blackburn Rovers	Tottenham Hotspur	32%	30%	38%
19/12/2009	Everton	Birmingham City	63%	23%	14%
19/12/2009	Fulham	Manchester United	14%	22%	64%
19/12/2009	Manchester City	Sunderland	63%	23%	14%
20/12/2009	Portsmouth	Liverpool	13%	22%	65%
20/12/2009	West Ham United	Chelsea	10%	19%	71%
20/12/2009	Wigan Athletic	Bolton Wanderers	44%	30%	27%
21/12/2009	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Burnley	46%	29%	25%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 19 Predictions

Apologies for not putting up tips for the last round of A-League, as it transpired drinking pints of Guinness in Dublin seemed more appealing than updating my free blog. Strangley enough I managed to tip 5 out of the 6 results for round 18 correctly, moving me into 88th position overall (out of 31,000+ tippers) on footytips.  Another decent bet on North Queensland got up as well, as they managed to account for North Queensland at home.

Another 6 matches this round, and that will be the case for the next few rounds.  We've gone back to tipping all home teams this week, let's home some home form starts to come through.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
18/12/2009	Adelaide United	New Zealand	Hindmarsh Stadium	50%	25%	25%
19/12/2009	Central Coast Mariners	Queensland Roar	Bluetongue Stadium	40%	27%	34%
19/12/2009	Melbourne Victory	Sydney FC	Telstra Dome	50%	25%	25%
20/12/2009	Newcastle Jets	North Queensland	EnergyAustralia Stadium	43%	26%	30%
20/12/2009	Gold Coast	Perth Glory	Skilled Park	49%	25%	26%
23/12/2009	Sydney FC	Central Coast Mariners	Sydney Football Stadium	46%	26%	28%

Total tips for the season: 41 from 90 (46%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 13 Predictions

Somewhat below average round last week in the EPL, only managing 4 correct results.  Still, this was just above the footytips average of 3.9 and we still sit in the top 3% of all tippers there.

The interesting game of the week would have to be Manchester City hosting Chelsea.  City have drawn 7 games in a row and have so far failed to live up to their pre-season hype - no doubt the probs below will suggest a bet on Chelsea.  This game will test whether City are the real deal - then again, they may be happy to let Chelsea win and make it that little bit easier to win the Premiership over City's bitter cross-town rivals.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
5/12/2009	Arsenal	Stoke City	80%	14%	7%
5/12/2009	Aston Villa	Hull City	74%	17%	9%
5/12/2009	Blackburn Rovers	Liverpool	16%	24%	61%
5/12/2009	Everton	Tottenham Hotspur	45%	29%	25%
5/12/2009	Fulham	Sunderland	58%	25%	17%
5/12/2009	Manchester City	Chelsea	14%	23%	63%
5/12/2009	Portsmouth	Burnley	48%	28%	23%
5/12/2009	West Ham United	Manchester United	12%	20%	68%
6/12/2009	Wigan Athletic	Birmingham City	46%	29%	25%
6/12/2009	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Bolton Wanderers	40%	30%	30%

Total tips for the season: 75 from 139 (54%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 17 Predictions

A good week last week, tipping 3 of the 5 results correctly and back to the top 1% of all tippers on footytips.  Also a very good week for betting as bets we placed on the last 4 games of the round and they all managed to win, including a handy win for Newcastle over Sydney at odds of $5.50.

This week a big rarity occurs in the we've tipped 2 away teams.  Not much on the betting side this week, a small bet on North Queensland being the only amount of note.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
4/12/2009	New Zealand	Melbourne Victory	Westpac Stadium	27%	25%	48%
4/12/2009	Adelaide United	Newcastle Jets	Hindmarsh Stadium	45%	26%	29%
5/12/2009	Sydney FC	North Queensland	Sydney Football Stadium	46%	26%	29%
5/12/2009	Gold Coast	Central Coast Mariners	Skilled Park	42%	26%	32%
6/12/2009	Perth Glory	Queensland Roar	Members Equity Stadium	35%	27%	39%

Total tips for the season: 34 from 79 (43%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 12 Predictions

We tipped just below average last round, getting 6 of the 12 results correct.  The average on footytips was just 2.6 tips, however the average towards the top of the leaderboard must have been higher as we dropped a couple hundred places - we still sit in the top 3% of all tippers though.

Back to 10 games this round, all looks pretty normal.  A bit suprirsed Liverpool are rated so highly away to Everton, although it is a local derby so maybe the home ground advantage won't be as strong as normal.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
28/11/2009	Aston Villa	Tottenham Hotspur	49%	29%	24%
28/11/2009	Blackburn Rovers	Stoke City	47%	28%	23%
28/11/2009	Fulham	Bolton Wanderers	57%	25%	17%
28/11/2009	Manchester City	Hull City	70%	19%	11%
28/11/2009	Portsmouth	Manchester United	9%	17%	74%
28/11/2009	West Ham United	Burnley	55%	26%	19%
28/11/2009	Wigan Athletic	Sunderland	45%	29%	25%
29/11/2009	Arsenal	Chelsea	36%	31%	34%
29/11/2009	Everton	Liverpool	26%	29%	45%
29/11/2009	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Birmingham City	42%	30%	28%

Total tips for the season: 71 from 129 (55%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 16 Predictions

Last week went just as predicted - unfortunately that prediction was that we might get every tip wrong.  If I can diverge into stats for a second, given I'm tipping at 45% accuracy for the season, odds are 5% in any particular round I'll get 0 right - not that high.  But a in a 27-round season there's a 75% chance I'll tip 0 at least once in the season - so we'll just call last week an expected outlier.  We dropped a little in our standings on footytips but still sit within the top 2% of all tippers.

I'm a bit happier with how the tips shape up this week - on form (which as I've mentioned earlier counts for little in the A-League) the home teams really should be the more fancied.  We'll soon find out

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
27/11/2009	Central Coast Mariners	Perth Glory	Bluetongue Stadium	49%	25%	26%
28/11/2009	Melbourne Victory	Gold Coast	Telstra Dome	51%	25%	24%
28/11/2009	North Queensland	Adelaide United	Dairy Farmers Stadium	40%	27%	34%
29/11/2009	Sydney FC	Newcastle Jets	Sydney Football Stadium	49%	25%	26%
29/11/2009	Queensland Roar	New Zealand	Suncorp Stadium	51%	25%	24%

Total tips for the season: 31 from 74 (42%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 12 Predictions

A decent wek last round, getting 6 of the 10 results correct, against a site average of 2.9 on footytips.  This puts us within the top 2% of all tippers there at the moment.  A small collect on Everton over West Ham more than making up for backing Fulham to beat Wigan.

This round sees 12 games being played, with a catch-up game for Fulham and Blackburn, and the Hull vs Everton game being brought forward from later in the season.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
21/11/2009	Birmingham City	Fulham	34%	31%	36%
21/11/2009	Burnley	Aston Villa	24%	29%	47%
21/11/2009	Chelsea	Wolverhampton Wanderers	90%	7%	3%
21/11/2009	Hull City	West Ham United	29%	30%	41%
21/11/2009	Liverpool	Manchester City	72%	18%	10%
21/11/2009	Manchester United	Everton	74%	17%	9%
21/11/2009	Sunderland	Arsenal	12%	20%	68%
22/11/2009	Bolton Wanderers	Blackburn Rovers	42%	30%	28%
22/11/2009	Stoke City	Portsmouth	48%	28%	23%
22/11/2009	Tottenham Hotspur	Wigan Athletic	63%	23%	14%
25/11/2009	Hull City	Everton	17%	25%	59%
25/11/2009	Fulham	Blackburn Rovers	51%	28%	21%

Total tips for the season: 65 from 117 (56%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 15 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, we tipped 3 out of the 6 results correctly and moved into 143rd spot on footytips out of the 30,000+ A-League tippers there, so well within the top 0.5%.

An interesting round this, we could easily get them all right or all wrong.  We tip Brisbane by a slender margin over Melbourne, the other games the expected winner is more obvious, will be interesting to see how they all pan out though,

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
20/11/2009	Adelaide United	Gold Coast	Hindmarsh Stadium	42%	26%	31%
21/11/2009	Queensland Roar	Melbourne Victory	Suncorp Stadium	36.7%	27%	36.6%
21/11/2009	North Queensland	Central Coast Mariners	Dairy Farmers Stadium	41%	27%	33%
22/11/2009	Newcastle Jets	New Zealand	EnergyAustralia Stadium	47%	26%	27%
22/11/2009	Perth Glory	Sydney FC	Members Equity Stadium	33%	27%	40%

Total tips for the season: 31 from 69 (45%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 11 Predictions

Struggling to get an internet connection in the hotel room at the moment, so while I have 5 minutes in an internet cafe I'll throw up who I've tipped for this week in the EPL and hopefully get the chance to update with probabilities before too long.  Stay tuned:

Tips

• Aston Villa
• Blackburn
• Manchester City
• Tottenham
• Arsenal
• Stoke
• Everton
• Wigan
• Chelsea
• Liverpool

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 14 Predictions

A horror start last week getting the first 3 games wrong, but salvaged something by tipping the correct result in both of Sunday's games.  The average on footytips was also 2.0, and we only moved down 4 spots overall, so still sitting in the top 1% of all tippers there.  Betting performed well, as we noted last week North Queensland were value paying $5+ against Gold Coast, and they won comfortably so a tidy profit there.

This week sees an extra game being played on Wednesday night, with Wellington and Newcastle making up for their deffered game from last month.  Obviously the result from tonight will alter both team's ratings, however the probabilites for their games on Sunday aren't expected to change much.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
4/11/2009	New Zealand	Newcastle Jets	Westpac Stadium	37%	27%	36%
6/11/2009	Adelaide United	Queensland Roar	Hindmarsh Stadium	42%	26%	31%
7/11/2009	Melbourne Victory	Central Coast Mariners	Telstra Dome	53%	24%	23%
7/11/2009	Gold Coast	Sydney FC	Skilled Park	39%	27%	35%
8/11/2009	New Zealand	Perth Glory	Westpac Stadium	41%	27%	33%
8/11/2009	Newcastle Jets	North Queensland	EnergyAustralia Stadium	40%	27%	33%

Total tips for the season: 28 from 63 (44%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 10 Predictions

EDIT - Given that both West Ham and Aston Villa drew over the weekend, their ratings only changed slightly, and the match probability for tomorrows game has barely changed from the posted last week.

On the surface a poor week last week, only getting 3 correct results for the round.  However the average on footytips was only 2 tips, so we actually improved the overall position from the top 5% to within the top 3%.  Also a nice week on the betting as wins on Birgmingham and Liverpool saw a return for the week of around 60%.

11 games in total to report on in the next week - the extra due to a catch-up being played between West Ham and Aston Villa which was originally meant to happen earlier in the season.  Obviously the rating for these 2 teams will change after they play their weekend matches and I will try to update this before Wednesday - however it would take something like a 10-goal result in either of their prior games for the tip to change from Villa to West Ham.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
31/10/2009	Arsenal	Tottenham Hotspur	70%	19%	11%
31/10/2009	Bolton Wanderers	Chelsea	11%	19%	70%
31/10/2009	Burnley	Hull City	53%	27%	20%
31/10/2009	Everton	Aston Villa	46%	29%	25%
31/10/2009	Fulham	Liverpool	16%	24%	60%
31/10/2009	Manchester United	Blackburn Rovers	85%	10%	5%
31/10/2009	Portsmouth	Wigan Athletic	42%	30%	28%
31/10/2009	Stoke City	Wolverhampton Wanderers	54%	27%	19%
31/10/2009	Sunderland	West Ham United	39%	30%	30%
1/11/2009	Birmingham City	Manchester City	29%	30%	41%
4/11/2009	West Ham United	Aston Villa	31%	30%	39%

Total tips for the season: 54 from 96 (56%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 13 Predictions

A great round last week in the A-League, tipping 4 out of 5 correct results - Wellington's massive upset win over Gold Coast being the game we missed.  The average correct tips for the round on footytips was just 0.5 - so the results see us move to the top 1% of all tippers there.  A great week was also had by those following the predictions for betting, with bets on New Zealand, Newcastle and North Queenlsand all getting up.

This week sees Central Coast play at Canberra again, so by treating this game as a neutral venue we actually end up tipping Adelaide.  All other games appear pretty much spot on, though I notice North Queensland appear to be value paying around $5+ against Gold Coast who have struggled lately.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
30/10/2009	Queensland Roar	Newcastle Jets	Suncorp Stadium	47%	26%	27%
31/10/2009	Central Coast Mariners	Adelaide United	Canberra Stadium	35%	27%	38%
31/10/2009	Gold Coast	North Queensland	Skilled Park	46%	26%	28%
1/11/2009	Sydney FC	New Zealand	Sydney Football Stadium	49%	25%	26%
1/11/2009	Perth Glory	Melbourne Victory	Members Equity Stadium	31%	26%	43%

Total tips for the season: 26 from 58 (45%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 9 Predictions

A slightly better than average week in the Premier League, managing to get 6 of the results correct.  This puts us within the top 5% of all tippers on footytips.

Business as usual this week, the most interesting match-up looks to be Liverpool vs Man Utd.  The model has tipped Liverpool slightly in front due to the home-ground advantage, and probably not enough time has lapsed for the injuries to their two best players - Gerrard and Torres - to be reflected in the model's ratings yet.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
24/10/2009	Birmingham City	Sunderland	43%	30%	27%
24/10/2009	Bolton Wanderers	Everton	27%	30%	43%
24/10/2009	Burnley	Wigan Athletic	42%	30%	28%
24/10/2009	Chelsea	Blackburn Rovers	84%	11%	5%
24/10/2009	Hull City	Portsmouth	36%	31%	34%
24/10/2009	Manchester City	Fulham	53%	27%	20%
25/10/2009	Tottenham Hotspur	Stoke City	62%	23%	15%
25/10/2009	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Aston Villa	23%	28%	49%
25/10/2009	Liverpool	Manchester United	37%	30%	33%
25/10/2009	West Ham United	Arsenal	15%	24%	61%

Total tips for the season: 51 from 86 (59%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 12 Predictions

A good week tipping-wise in the A-Aleague last week, getting 3 of the results correct.  Interesting to hear Foxsports commentators Simon Hill and Robbie Slater comment during a game last week on how hard it was to pick winners in the A-League, something I've been saying since the start of the season.

I'm not sure the unpredicatble nature is a good thing for the health of the league - indeed when Melbourne Victory were taking all before them in the 2006/07 season the crowds grew game after game, to the point where they drew 50,000 fans for a home-and-away match against Sydney.  We won't be seeing that repeated again in a hurry.

Anyway despite the tough nature in picking winners, last weeks good results see us move into the top 5% of all tippers on footytips (as we have with the Eniglish Premier League).  Another interesting round this week - we've tipped Newcastle via the slimmest of margins against Central Coast, although given they only have to travel an hour up the road and Newcastle's crowd numbers have been dwindling, I wouldn't expect the home ground advantage to be as strong as in other circumstances.  We've also tipped the Gold Coast away to Wellington, who have had a very strong home record this season.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
23/10/2009	Newcastle Jets	Central Coast Mariners	EnergyAustralia Stadium	36.64%	26.76%	36.61%
24/10/2009	Melbourne Victory	Adelaide United	Telstra Dome	49%	25%	26%
24/10/2009	North Queensland	Perth Glory	Dairy Farmers Stadium	42%	26%	31%
25/10/2009	New Zealand	Gold Coast	Westpac Stadium	35%	27%	38%
25/10/2009	Sydney FC	Queensland Roar	Sydney Football Stadium	43%	26%	31%

Total tips for the season: 22 from 53 (42%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 8 Predictions

Only managed to tip 3 results correctly last week, but with the average for the round on footytips only 1.8 for the round this doesn't appear so bad.  Again no bets were made last week.

No surprises agaon this week - if anything the away teams of Manchester City and Tottenham are probably under the odds, this will likely be the case until they string together some consecutive wins - or until they play each other.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
17/10/2009	Arsenal	Birmingham City	84%	11%	5%
17/10/2009	Aston Villa	Chelsea	19%	26%	55%
17/10/2009	Everton	Wolverhampton Wanderers	73%	18%	10%
17/10/2009	Manchester United	Bolton Wanderers	87%	9%	4%
17/10/2009	Portsmouth	Tottenham Hotspur	29%	30%	41%
17/10/2009	Stoke City	West Ham United	42%	30%	28%
17/10/2009	Sunderland	Liverpool	11%	20%	69%
18/10/2009	Blackburn Rovers	Burnley	53%	27%	20%
18/10/2009	Wigan Athletic	Manchester City	32%	30%	38%
19/10/2009	Fulham	Hull City	64%	22%	14%

Total tips for the season: 45 from 76 (59%)
Return on Investment for the season: +24%
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A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 11 Predictions

Week 10 only saw us manage to get one result correct out of the 4 games, but again on footytips the average for the round was just 0.4 correct tips so not a total disaster.  We are still sitting in the top 9% of all tippers there so no cause for concern at all.

Back to the usual 5 games this round, and finally we tip an away team, being Melbourne against Newcastle.  Given Newcastle have had a good record over Melbourne over the years it'll be interesting to see how this games shapes up, but from a statistical point of few previous results between 2 competing clubs are a weak indicator at best.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
16/10/2009	Adelaide United	Sydney FC	Hindmarsh Stadium	40%	27%	34%
17/10/2009	Queensland Roar	Central Coast Mariners	Suncorp Stadium	45%	26%	29%
17/10/2009	North Queensland	New Zealand	Dairy Farmers Stadium	44%	26%	30%
18/10/2009	Newcastle Jets	Melbourne Victory	EnergyAustralia Stadium	35%	27%	39%
18/10/2009	Gold Coast	Perth Glory	Skilled Park	45%	26%	29%

Total tips for the season: 19 from 49 (39%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 10 Predictions

Business as usual last round in theA-League last week - tipping 2 out of 5 results as has been the case in many of the past rounds, but when the average for Round 9 on footytips was just 0.4 tips out of 5, this compares favourably.

The result sees us inside the top 6% of all tippers there, and with 18 tips total for the season this again stacks up well against the site average of 12.4.  Of the 9 rounds played so far, we've managed to tip better than average in 6 of those rounds.

This week only 4 games are being played, with Wellington and Newcastle having the week off, presumably due to New Zealand's involvement in World Cup Qualifiers against Bahrain this week.  As has been the case for most of the season we're tipping all home teams to win, and looking at the match-ups this seems pretty reasonable.  Despite Gold Coast slipping in form of late, it will be interesting to see if the fact this match is more or less a local derby plays an effect.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
9/10/2009	Melbourne Victory	Sydney FC	Telstra Dome	49%	25%	26%
9/10/2009	Perth Glory	Adelaide United	Members Equity Stadium	38%	27%	35%
11/10/2009	Central Coast Mariners	North Queensland	Bluetongue Stadium	44%	26%	30%
11/10/2009	Queensland Roar	Gold Coast	Suncorp Stadium	46%	26%	28%

Total tips for the season: 18 from 45 (40%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 7 Predictions

Yet again tipped 7 in the Premier League last weekend, putting us in the top 6% of all tippers on footytips.  No bets of any size we placed last week so things remain as normal on the betting side.

Again a fairly straight-forward week in terms of tipping.  It will be interesting to see the results of the Aston Villa vs Manchester City game, intuition says that Man City should be rated higher than the model shows.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
3/10/2009	Bolton Wanderers	Tottenham Hotspur	31%	30%	39%
3/10/2009	Burnley	Birmingham City	46%	29%	25%
3/10/2009	Everton	Stoke City	68%	20%	12%
3/10/2009	Hull City	Wigan Athletic	33%	30%	36%
3/10/2009	Manchester United	Sunderland	89%	7%	3%
4/10/2009	West Ham United	Fulham	45%	29%	26%
4/10/2009	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Portsmouth	43%	30%	27%
4/10/2009	Arsenal	Blackburn Rovers	79%	14%	7%
4/10/2009	Chelsea	Liverpool	51%	27%	21%
5/10/2009	Aston Villa	Manchester City	51%	27%	21%

Total tips for the season: 42 from 66 (64%)
Return on Investment for the season: +24%

AFL 2009 Season - Finals Week 4 Predictions - Grand Final

Apologies again foir the late posting of these, though given the predictions it's probably best they had as little expsure as possible.  As has been the case in most of the finals the player selections has been decisive in the final probabilities.  Geelong were tipped slightly based on team form alone, but some nuances in the players selected has swung things in quite a bit in St Kilda's favour.

I find it interesting that Geelong are favoured as much as they are, they have dropped a few games recently against less favoured opposition, whereas St Kilda only lost a couple of games by less than a goal.  Perhaps they shouldn't be as highly rated as they are below, but it's a method that was worked great all season so what can you do?

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr 1	Pr 2
St Kilda	Geelong	MCG	85%	14%

Total tips for the season: 128 from 184 (70%)
Total tips for finals: 5 from 8 (63%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 6 Predictions

As with the A-League tipping it seems consistency is the key, tipping 7 correct results for the 3rd week in a row now.  And again like the A-League we are now in the top 7% of all EPL tippers on footytips.  We are now sitting on 62.5% correct results for the year, about 5% ahead of where we'd expect to be at years end so the early season results are very promising.

It was also a great week for betting as our 4 bets for the week - Burnley, Everton, Chelsea and Manchester United - the latter result not being confirmed until the 5th minute of injury time after United had taken the lead 3 times during the match, only for City to equalise every time.

Here are this week's predicitions, no huge surprises in terms of tipping or bets.  

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
26/09/2009	Portsmouth	Everton	25%	29%	46%
26/09/2009	Birmingham City	Bolton Wanderers	43%	30%	27%
26/09/2009	Blackburn Rovers	Aston Villa	30%	30%	40%
26/09/2009	Fulham	Arsenal	18%	25%	57%
26/09/2009	Liverpool	Hull City	90%	7%	3%
26/09/2009	Stoke City	Manchester United	9%	17%	73%
26/09/2009	Tottenham Hotspur	Burnley	64%	22%	14%
26/09/2009	Wigan Athletic	Chelsea	9%	17%	75%
27/09/2009	Sunderland	Wolverhampton Wanderers	45%	29%	26%
28/09/2009	Manchester City	West Ham United	54%	27%	20%

Total tips for the season: 35 from 56 (63%)
Return on Investment for the season: +24%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 8 Predictions

We tipped 2 out of 5 results again for the 5th week in a row for the relatively low accuracy of 43% this season.  However, this is enough to put us in the top 7% of all A-League tippers at footytips, suggesting that perhaps so far this has been a tough season to tip - or perhaps the A-League in general is hard to tip.  A strong case for the unpredicatble nature of the A-League can be found by looking at the current form of all the teams - only one team has won more than two of it's past five games, that being Perth Glory who finished 2nd bottom last season.

The predictions for these week show we're tipping all home teams for the 2nd week in a row.  Indeed, looking at the odds for this week, the home teams are all paying between $2.35 to $2.40, so we are pretty much in line with the bookies.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
25/09/2009	Newcastle Jets	Perth Glory	EnergyAustralia Stadium	43%	26%	31%
26/09/2009	Gold Coast	Melbourne Victory	Skilled Park	39%	27%	34%
27/09/2009	New Zealand	Central Coast Mariners	Westpac Stadium	38%	27%	35%
27/09/2009	Queensland Roar	Sydney FC	Suncorp Stadium	45%	26%	29%
27/09/2009	North Queensland	Adelaide United	Dairy Farmers Stadium	40%	27%	33%

Total tips for the season: 15 from 35 (43%)

AFL 2009 Season - Brownlow Medal Results

An extremely successful year was had this year betting on the Brownlow medal courtesy of the predictions released on this site - thanks of course to Gary Ablett winning at odds of $3 (at least when I placed my bet), massive value when I rated him a 75% chance to win.  The only real downside was Dane Swan not polling as well as I - and most other people expected - this took out a few multiple bets I'd placed, but nonetheless a multitude of other bets out there more than made up for this.

A list of all the bets that returned a profit are listed here:

• Gary Ablett to win - 75% @ $3
• Jimmy Bartel to top group comprised of Cooney, B Harvey, Deledio, Jobe Watson and Scott Thompson - 21% @ $7.5
• Bernie Vince to top group comprised of Adam Selwood, Rich, Akermanis, Hodge and Hasleby - 66% @ $2
• Fevola to top group comprised of Koschitzke, Franklin, LeCras, Pavlich and Tredrea - 75% @ $3
• Vince to top Adelaide - 53% @ $2.40
• Brown to top Brisbane 82% @ $2.2
• Winderlich to top Essendon - 17% @ $34
• Pavlich to top Fremantle - 57% @ $4
• Ablett to top Geelong - 99% at 1.12
• Richardson to top Richmond - under Any Other Player (not Deledio, Foley, Tambling, Jackson or Tuck) 49% @ $4
• LeCras to top West Coast - 34% @ 3.25

A couple of these options ended up tying with another player, effectively  halving the odds - having said that we managed to return over 50% profit on the night mainly thanks to Ablett winning and Winderlich topping Essendon at long odds.

A couple of missed opportunities were there as well - the first was Jonathan Brown to finish in the top 5 overall.  I rated him 5th in my predictions, which is exactly where he placed at massive odds of $18.  

Another was Dane Swan - he was paying $1.03 to top Collingwood's votes, whereas I rated him 91% chance, so under the odds - this represented a very nice laying opportunity where you could have taken on someone else's massive bet for a very minor risk - ie if you took $1,000 of someone's money, you would have only risked paying out $30 had Dane Swan topped Collingwood.  Turns out he didn't, so you would have pocketed the $1,000.

Still it was a very successful event overall, and in the days since I've come across a plethora of detailed player statistics that should only improve the model and it's results.  And as always, if not well we still have a model that is extremely capable.

So the only piece of AFL prediction left for the year will be the grand final, which I'll upload after the final team selections are announced.  At this stage on team form alone I'd rate Geelong slightly on top, however once we factor in the player's named this may change.  Til then.

AFL 2009 Season - Brownlow Medal Predictions

Every year for the past few years I've compiled Brownlow Medal predictions with reasonable success.  Every game I rate each player on their chance to get 3, 2, or 1 votes - then based on these probabilities I simulate the season 30,000 times in order to find the average number of votes for each player over the whole season, and their respective chance to win the medal. 

A variety of statistics are fed into the Brownlow Model - for example, each player's kicks, marks, handballs, goals, inside 50's and even the number of free kicks they give away are found to be significant predictors of how many votes they will receive.  However the two most significant predictors are the margin your team wins by, and how many Supercoach points you receive in a game.  The latter is by far the major pointer to how well a player is likely to poll, and explains why I rate Gary Ablett so highly this year, as he has by far amassed the most Supercoach points per game played.

Given that the entire season is simulated, it enables me to produce a variety predictions, not just who will win the league.  Other stats I've produced include the likelihood of there being multiple winners, how many votes the winner is likely to poll, various head to head and group propositions, and who is likely to poll the most votes for each of the teams.

One point worth noting - these predictions are all based on cold, hard, observable statistics.  There's no accounting for other reasons a player might poll well - such as being based in the midfield, having blonde hair, or being named Adam Goodes for example.  All other things being equal, a midfielder kicking for goals will likely poll higher than a forward kicking 4 goals.

So here are the predictions for this year - if there is anything else you'd like to see let me know and I should be able to work it out.  For what it's worth I rated last year's winner Adam Cooney a 15% chance to win - he paid $14 so this represents close to double what I rated him, good value indeed

Click on the link to download a spreadsheet of advanced predictions

2009 Brownlow Medal Predictions

Player	Avg Votes	% Chance
Gary Ablett	26.8	75.08%
Dane Swan	22.4	21.93%
Nick Dal Santo	18.2	4.84%
Leigh Montagna	17.8	3.56%
Jonathan Brown	15.9	0.85%
Brendon Goddard	14.1	0.64%
Paul Chapman	15.1	0.38%
Sam Mitchell	13.3	0.00%
Alan Didak	14.4	0.27%
Lenny Hayes	12.3	0.19%
Chris Judd	12.4	0.18%
Nick Riewoldt	12.1	0.17%
Marc Murphy	11.5	0.13%
Adam Goodes	12.5	0.06%
Bernie Vince	10.6	0.05%
Brendan Fevola	12.4	0.03%
Luke Power	10.2	0.03%
Matthew Boyd	9.5	0.03%
Joel Selwood	10.0	0.02%

AFL 2009 Season - Finals Week 3 Predictions

Apologies for the late posting of these, I've spent most of my free time this week getting my Brownlow Medal predictions handy, which I'll post on here shortly.

Well first off last week went according to script, firstly with the Western Bulldogs winning easily and Collingwood winning in a very close match.  Both these teams provided decent overlays as well, so profits were to be made for those betting.

I'm pretty hesitant to put the predictions up for this week, and look at the probabilities you'll soon see why, tipping both underdogs by a fairly big gap.  As has been the case with the Western Bulldogs in recent weeks, on form alone we'd rate St Kilda and Geelong on top but when the player-based aspect is added things swing in favour of the underdogs.  For what it's worth I'll be extremely happy if both of my tips are wrong, as this means St Kilda will be in the Grand Final, and more importantly Collingwood won't be.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr 1	Pr 2
St Kilda	Western Bulldogs	MCG	26.6%	71.7%
Geelong	Collingwood	MCG	20.2%	78.4%

Total tips for the season: 128 from 182 (70%)
Total tips for finals: 5 from 6 (83%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 5 Predictions

Another very nice week on the tipping last week, getting 7 out of the 10 results correctly.  Currently sitting on 61% tipping success for the season, higher than I'd expected to be, so if we can keep this rate up I'll be more than happy.  A break-even week on the betting no thanks to betting on Arsenal away at Manchester City who are on the rise.

A couple of really interesting games this week - Chelsea and Manchester United at home to up and coming teams Tottenham and Manchester City - the games made even more interesting given they are both local derbies.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
19/09/2009	Arsenal	Wigan Athletic	82%	12%	6%
19/09/2009	Aston Villa	Portsmouth	66%	21%	13%
19/09/2009	Bolton Wanderers	Stoke City	46%	29%	25%
19/09/2009	Burnley	Sunderland	46%	29%	25%
19/09/2009	Everton	Blackburn Rovers	62%	23%	15%
19/09/2009	Hull City	Birmingham City	38%	30%	32%
19/09/2009	West Ham United	Liverpool	15%	24%	61%
19/09/2009	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Fulham	34%	31%	36%
20/09/2009	Chelsea	Tottenham Hotspur	78%	15%	7%
20/09/2009	Manchester United	Manchester City	80%	13%	7%

Total tips for the season: 28 from 46 (61%)
Return on Investment for the season: +14%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 7 Predictions

Last round we tipped 2 for the 4th week in a row, getting up the first two games then missing the last 3.  Good news is we're into the top 7% on footytips, hopefully we can keeping going higher as the weeks go on.

So here are this weeks games, no real surprises as we've gone with all the home teams - tipping Adelaide and Central Coast against Melbourne and Gold Coast respectively should prove interesting.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
18/09/2009	Adelaide United	Melbourne Victory	Hindmarsh Stadium	40%	27%	34%
19/09/2009	Central Coast Mariners	Gold Coast	Bluetongue Stadium	38%	27%	36%
20/09/2009	New Zealand	North Queensland	Westpac Stadium	39%	27%	34%
20/09/2009	Sydney FC	Newcastle Jets	Sydney Football Stadium	46%	26%	29%
20/09/2009	Queensland Roar	Perth Glory	Suncorp Stadium	54%	24%	22%

Total tips for the season: 13 from 30 (43%)

AFL 2009 Season - Finals Week 2 Predictions

We tipped 3 out of the 4 winners in the 1st week of the final - missing out the Western Bulldogs who I rated highly - which is the case again this week, in giving them a 92% chance against Brisbane, and again because of the profile of players selected (we'd still tip them just based on both teams' form alone for what it's worth).  The other game I rated almost a toss of the coin, tipping just in favour of Collingwood.  Any further teams changes would be interesting as this could sway the predicition in Adelaide's favour.

As a said last week I'm not using my predicstions to bet on the finals, primarily because the data I used to build the model is only using games from the home-and-away rounds.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr 1	Pr 2
Western Bulldogs	Brisbane	MCG	91.7%	7.7%
Collingwood	Adelaide	MCG	49.5%	48.4%

Total tips for the season: 126 from 180 (70%)
Total tips for finals: 3 from 4 (75%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 4 Predictions

After a 2 week gap for internationals the English Premier League returns this week.  Last round we did quite well, tipping 7 out of the 10 results correctly and taking the tips to 58% for the season which is slightly ahead where'd I'd like to be by season's end, so no complaints there.

An interesting week this week, rating undefeated teams Tottenham and Manchester City as clear underdogs against Manchester United and Arsenal respectively.  The ratings for these teams haven't yet reacted to the hype surrounding them, though should these teams win against their more fancied opposition then expect their ratings so increase significantly.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
12/09/2009	Blackburn Rovers	Wolverhampton Wanderers	53%	27%	20%
12/09/2009	Liverpool	Burnley	85%	10%	5%
12/09/2009	Manchester City	Arsenal	20%	27%	53%
12/09/2009	Portsmouth	Bolton Wanderers	46%	29%	25%
12/09/2009	Stoke City	Chelsea	10%	18%	72%
12/09/2009	Sunderland	Hull City	51%	28%	21%
12/09/2009	Tottenham Hotspur	Manchester United	17%	25%	57%
12/09/2009	Wigan Athletic	West Ham United	37%	30%	32%
13/09/2009	Birmingham City	Aston Villa	26%	29%	45%
13/09/2009	Fulham	Everton	32%	30%	38%

Total tips for the season: 21 from 36 (58%)
Return on Investment for the season: +23%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 6 Predictions

Another week of 2 tips correct out of 5, not helped by a rare week where there were 3 draws.  No real surprises this week - we're justing tipping Brisbane over Newcastle.  Interesting that the Sydney vs Nth Queensland game is being played at the Sydney Cricket Ground, no reason not to treat this as a Sydney home game.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
11/09/2009	Adelaide United	Central Coast Mariners	Hindmarsh Stadium	43.4%	26.3%	30.4%
12/09/2009	Newcastle Jets	Queensland Roar	EnergyAustralia Stadium	36.5%	26.8%	36.7%
13/09/2009	Sydney FC	North Queensland	Sydney Cricket Ground	47.6%	25.5%	26.9%
14/09/2009	Melbourne Victory	New Zealand	Telstra Dome	52.3%	24.4%	23.3%
15/09/2009	Perth Glory	Gold Coast	Members Equity Stadium	33.5%	26.6%	39.9%

Total tips for the season: 11 from 25 (44%)

Super 14 Rugby Model Analysis

I managed to get hold of past Super 14 results so decided to build a quick-and-dirty model to see what we could find.  The 14-team competition started in 2006, so I've used data from 2006 through to 2008 to create the model parameters, and tested on the 2009 season.  Well, the results so far are extremely impressive - below are a couple of graphs to show how profitable this model looks.

Tipping

In the 94 games of the 2009 season the model correctly tipped 70.5 winners, which is right on 75%.  Out of the 39,000 Super 14 tippers on footytips this would have placed us somewhere between 29th and 70th overall, which is outstanding.  As with all these models though, the real fun is to see how profitable it can be.

Betting

Head to Head Betting
Firstly we'll look at the stanndard head to head betting - simply betting on the team we think will win.  As with all my betting, I've used the Kelly Criteria.  To keep things simple we'll analyse all potential bets, provided that the probability implies an advantage over the bookmaker - regardless of the size of the advantage, or the probability of the team to win.

Return on Investment

• All games: 21%
• Home Team Only: 9%
  
• Away Team Only: 32%

After an up and down start to the season (potentially due to the ratings taking a couple of weeks to stabilise),  the model showed consistent profits week after week for the rest of the season, particularly when betting on the away team to win.  More detailed analysis will more than likely show why the away teams are more profitable, but like I said this is just a quick analysis for now.

Margin Betting
A different type of betting option typically available is betting on the margin - the bookmaker will set what they expect the margin for the games to be, and then the price either side of that margin is even money.  As an example, if New South Wales host Queensland then the bookie might set the line at -6.5 points, which means NSW need to win by at least 7 points for that bet to win, otherewise if Queensland win, or even lose by 6 points or fewer then they win the bet. I tweaked the model to predict the probability of or going over and under any given margin, and from this we can bet on either side of the margin if we find an advantage over the bookie exists.

Again, we'll analyse all bets provided there is an overlay - regardless of the size of the overlay or the probability of beating the margin.

Return on Investment

• All games: 23%
• Home Team Only: -3%
  
• Away Team Only: 42%

A bit disappointing that betting on the home team to win the margin showed a slight negative profit, but that is tempered by the fact that betting on the away team to beat the margin shows over 40% ROI which is amazing.  Not sure why there is such a different profile between home and away margin betting, this will require some more time to analyse - my early thoughts are that the bookies line favour the home team more than they should, hence the bets on the away team provide more value

Improvements
Like I mentioned, this model was a quick and dirty model - I literally grabbed the data from the net and had a model built in less than hour.  As such it is a pretty simple model, with the main point is that, all other things being equal, the home ground advantage is standard throughout the comp.  That is, the ACT Brumbies face the same home ground advantage by travelling a few hours up the highway to Sydney as they would by jumping on a plane and flying across the other side of the world to play in South Africa.  The first improvemnt to make is set up separate home ground advantages based on whether the opponent is from the same country or from overseas - and then perhaps more complex home ground advtanges could be applied, for example a separate one for each team.

Secondly, in the analysis shown here no filters were put in place - we bet on all teams provided there was an overlay.  Given more time, I'll apply filters based on the size of the overlay, and the probability of winning (or beating the margin).  There's no guarantees that these improvements will results in increased profitability, but if not I can just return to the model as it appears in this report and feel fairly comfortable about its profitability in the future,.  Stay tuned.

AFL 2009 Season - Finals Week 1 Predictions

5 tips in Round 22 to round off the home-and-away season, for a final figure of 123 tips (69.9%) overall which is quite respectable for a start-up model.  As I mentioned in the season review we should only see this figure to increase when I improve the model in the off-season.

In the meantime here are my predictions for week 1 of the finals series.  No surprises for 3 of games, obviously the Cats vs Dogs game is an eye-opener with the Dogs rated so high.  Again this is down to the profile of players selected, a couple of nuances in certain players profiles sees the massive probability here.  We rated the Dogs highly in their last two game against more fancied opposition and they managed to win these, so again will be interesting to see how this game pans out.  For the record I don't think I'll be betting heavily on this game, or indeed through the finals.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr 1	Pr 2
Adelaide	Essendon	AAMI Stadium	79.3%	19.4%
Geelong	Western Bulldogs	MCG	7.9%	91.4%
Brisbane	Carlton	Gabba	78.2%	20.4%
St Kilda	Collingwood	MCG	68.7%	29.6%

Total tips for the season: 123 from 176 (69.9%)
Total tips for finals: N/A

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 5 Predictions

Round 4 highlighted that form counts for nothing in the A-League, with undefeated Gold Coast losing away to Newcastle, and Melbourne losing away to lowly Perth. Still, the Newcastle win came on the back of a large suggested bet on them, so happy to trade-off some tips for profit.

Following are the Round 5 predictions - it's worth noting that the Central Coast vs Perth game is held in somewhat neutral Canberra. To my knowledge there hasn't been a neutral venue in the A-League before, hence I can't properly model what happens at a neutral venue. I've been able to tweek parameters though as though there is no home ground advantage, so we'll see how we go. For what it's worth, Central Coast would have been rated 46% had it been held at their home ground.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
3/09/2009	Melbourne Victory	Newcastle Jets	Telstra Dome	49%	25%	26%
4/09/2009	New Zealand	Adelaide United	Westpac Stadium	37%	27%	36%
4/09/2009	Central Coast Mariners	Perth Glory	Canberra Stadium	40%	27%	34%
5/09/2009	Gold Coast	Sydney FC	Skilled Park	42%	26%	32%
5/09/2009	North Queensland	Queensland Roar	Dairy Farmers Stadium	35%	27%	39%

Total tips for the season: 9 from 20 (45%)