Saturday, December 26, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 19 Predictions

The mid-week predictions have been updated with the results of the weekend round of games

Last week we tipped 5 of the 9 results correctly, with the Wigan vs Bolton game being postponed due to weather. This moves us to up 394th place overall on footytips, out of 26,000 tippers there.

There are two rounds in close succession this week, with one round of games played (English time) Saturday & Sunday, and another from Monday to Wednesday.  Obviously the ratings and results of teams in the mid-week games will change slightly based on what happens over the weekend, however I'll put the predictions for both rounds up now and change the mid-week games after the weekend.

Date
Home Team
Away Team
Pr Home
Pr Draw
Pr Away
26/12/2009
Arsenal
Aston Villa
64%
22%
14%
26/12/2009
Birmingham City
Chelsea
10%
18%
72%
26/12/2009
Burnley
Bolton Wanderers
33%
30%
36%
26/12/2009
Fulham
Tottenham Hotspur
39%
30%
31%
26/12/2009
Hull City
Manchester United
7%
14%
79%
26/12/2009
Liverpool
Wolverhampton Wanderers
88%
9%
4%
26/12/2009
Manchester City
Stoke City
59%
25%
17%
26/12/2009
Sunderland
Everton
25%
29%
46%
27/12/2009
West Ham United
Portsmouth
49%
28%
23%
27/12/2009
Wigan Athletic
Blackburn Rovers
41%
30%
29%

Date
Home Team
Away Team
Pr Home
Pr Draw
Pr Away
28/12/2009
Blackburn Rovers
Sunderland
53%
27%
20%
28/12/2009
Chelsea
Fulham
80%
13%
7%
28/12/2009
Everton
Burnley
75%
16%
9%
28/12/2009
Stoke City
Birmingham City
44%
29%
26%
28/12/2009
Tottenham Hotspur
West Ham United
61%
23%
16%
28/12/2009
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Manchester City
21%
28%
51%
29/12/2009
Aston Villa
Liverpool
30%
30%
40%
29/12/2009
Bolton Wanderers
Hull City
57%
25%
17%
30/12/2009
Portsmouth
Arsenal
13%
22%
65%
30/12/2009
Manchester United
Wigan Athletic
87%
9%
4%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 20 Predictions

We tipped the first 3 games of last round incorrectly then got the next 3 right, so we move into 81st position overall on footytips.  Quite bizzarre as I'm tipping 45% for the season in the A-League, yet I'm higher up the ladder than I am for EPL where I'm tipping 55% - just goes to show how tough it is to get results correct in the A-League.

Back to a normal 5 games this round, with the 5th game being played on Thursday, New Year's Eve.  This week we tip 2 away teams, including Newcastle who have just won 4 games in a row, the first team to do that in the A-League this season - good to see that the model has picked up on this form as it is so hard to come by.

Date
Team 1
Team 2
Venue
Pr T1
Pr Draw
Pr T2
26/12/2009
Gold Coast
Queensland Roar
Skilled Park
40%
26%
32%
26/12/2009
Perth Glory
Newcastle Jets
Members Equity Stadium
36%
27%
37%
27/12/2009
Sydney FC
Adelaide United
Sydney Football Stadium
47%
26%
28%
27/12/2009
North Queensland
Melbourne Victory
Dairy Farmers Stadium
30%
26%
44%
31/12/2009
Central Coast Mariners
New Zealand
Bluetongue Stadium
48%
25%
26%

Friday, December 18, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 15 Predictions

I actually missed two rounds of posting EPL predictions while away, and it was a mixed bag as far as the tips went - the weekend matches I managed just 1 correct result from 10, however this turned around mid week in tipping 7 from 8.  These results saw us move back into the top 2% overall footytips.

A fairly standard week ahead this week tipping-wise, the away teams we have gone for this week are the big 3 teams playing away, and up-and-coming Tottenham

Date
Home Team
Away Team
Pr Home
Pr Draw
Pr Away
19/12/2009
Arsenal
Hull City
87%
9%
4%
19/12/2009
Aston Villa
Stoke City
66%
21%
13%
19/12/2009
Blackburn Rovers
Tottenham Hotspur
32%
30%
38%
19/12/2009
Everton
Birmingham City
63%
23%
14%
19/12/2009
Fulham
Manchester United
14%
22%
64%
19/12/2009
Manchester City
Sunderland
63%
23%
14%
20/12/2009
Portsmouth
Liverpool
13%
22%
65%
20/12/2009
West Ham United
Chelsea
10%
19%
71%
20/12/2009
Wigan Athletic
Bolton Wanderers
44%
30%
27%
21/12/2009
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Burnley
46%
29%
25%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 19 Predictions

Apologies for not putting up tips for the last round of A-League, as it transpired drinking pints of Guinness in Dublin seemed more appealing than updating my free blog. Strangley enough I managed to tip 5 out of the 6 results for round 18 correctly, moving me into 88th position overall (out of 31,000+ tippers) on footytips.  Another decent bet on North Queensland got up as well, as they managed to account for North Queensland at home.

Another 6 matches this round, and that will be the case for the next few rounds.  We've gone back to tipping all home teams this week, let's home some home form starts to come through.

Date
Team 1
Team 2
Venue
Pr T1
Pr Draw
Pr T2
18/12/2009
Adelaide United
New Zealand
Hindmarsh Stadium
50%
25%
25%
19/12/2009
Central Coast Mariners
Queensland Roar
Bluetongue Stadium
40%
27%
34%
19/12/2009
Melbourne Victory
Sydney FC
Telstra Dome
50%
25%
25%
20/12/2009
Newcastle Jets
North Queensland
EnergyAustralia Stadium
43%
26%
30%
20/12/2009
Gold Coast
Perth Glory
Skilled Park
49%
25%
26%
23/12/2009
Sydney FC
Central Coast Mariners
Sydney Football Stadium
46%
26%
28%


Total tips for the season: 41 from 90 (46%)

Friday, December 4, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 13 Predictions

Somewhat below average round last week in the EPL, only managing 4 correct results.  Still, this was just above the footytips average of 3.9 and we still sit in the top 3% of all tippers there.

The interesting game of the week would have to be Manchester City hosting Chelsea.  City have drawn 7 games in a row and have so far failed to live up to their pre-season hype - no doubt the probs below will suggest a bet on Chelsea.  This game will test whether City are the real deal - then again, they may be happy to let Chelsea win and make it that little bit easier to win the Premiership over City's bitter cross-town rivals.

Date
Home Team
Away Team
Pr Home
Pr Draw
Pr Away
5/12/2009
Arsenal
Stoke City
80%
14%
7%
5/12/2009
Aston Villa
Hull City
74%
17%
9%
5/12/2009
Blackburn Rovers
Liverpool
16%
24%
61%
5/12/2009
Everton
Tottenham Hotspur
45%
29%
25%
5/12/2009
Fulham
Sunderland
58%
25%
17%
5/12/2009
Manchester City
Chelsea
14%
23%
63%
5/12/2009
Portsmouth
Burnley
48%
28%
23%
5/12/2009
West Ham United
Manchester United
12%
20%
68%
6/12/2009
Wigan Athletic
Birmingham City
46%
29%
25%
6/12/2009
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Bolton Wanderers
40%
30%
30%

Total tips for the season: 75 from 139 (54%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 17 Predictions

A good week last week, tipping 3 of the 5 results correctly and back to the top 1% of all tippers on footytips.  Also a very good week for betting as bets we placed on the last 4 games of the round and they all managed to win, including a handy win for Newcastle over Sydney at odds of $5.50.

This week a big rarity occurs in the we've tipped 2 away teams.  Not much on the betting side this week, a small bet on North Queensland being the only amount of note.

Date
Team 1
Team 2
Venue
Pr T1
Pr Draw
Pr T2
 4/12/2009
New Zealand
Melbourne Victory
Westpac Stadium
 27%
 25%
 48%
 4/12/2009
Adelaide United
Newcastle Jets
Hindmarsh Stadium
 45%
 26%
 29%
 5/12/2009
Sydney FC
North Queensland
Sydney Football Stadium
 46%
 26%
 29%
 5/12/2009
Gold Coast
Central Coast Mariners
Skilled Park
 42%
 26%
 32%
 6/12/2009
Perth Glory
Queensland Roar
Members Equity Stadium
 35%
 27%
 39%

Total tips for the season: 34 from 79 (43%)

Saturday, November 28, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 12 Predictions

We tipped just below average last round, getting 6 of the 12 results correct.  The average on footytips was just 2.6 tips, however the average towards the top of the leaderboard must have been higher as we dropped a couple hundred places - we still sit in the top 3% of all tippers though.

Back to 10 games this round, all looks pretty normal.  A bit suprirsed Liverpool are rated so highly away to Everton, although it is a local derby so maybe the home ground advantage won't be as strong as normal.

Date
Home Team
Away Team
Pr Home
Pr Draw
Pr Away
28/11/2009
Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur
49%
29%
24%
28/11/2009
Blackburn Rovers
Stoke City
47%
28%
23%
28/11/2009
Fulham
Bolton Wanderers
57%
25%
17%
28/11/2009
Manchester City
Hull City
70%
19%
11%
28/11/2009
Portsmouth
Manchester United
9%
17%
74%
28/11/2009
West Ham United
Burnley
55%
26%
19%
28/11/2009
Wigan Athletic
Sunderland
45%
29%
25%
29/11/2009
Arsenal
Chelsea
36%
31%
34%
29/11/2009
Everton
Liverpool
26%
29%
45%
29/11/2009
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Birmingham City
42%
30%
28%

Total tips for the season: 71 from 129 (55%)

Friday, November 27, 2009

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 16 Predictions

Last week went just as predicted - unfortunately that prediction was that we might get every tip wrong.  If I can diverge into stats for a second, given I'm tipping at 45% accuracy for the season, odds are 5% in any particular round I'll get 0 right - not that high.  But a in a 27-round season there's a 75% chance I'll tip 0 at least once in the season - so we'll just call last week an expected outlier.  We dropped a little in our standings on footytips but still sit within the top 2% of all tippers.

I'm a bit happier with how the tips shape up this week - on form (which as I've mentioned earlier counts for little in the A-League) the home teams really should be the more fancied.  We'll soon find out

Date
Team 1
Team 2
Venue
Pr T1
Pr Draw
Pr T2
27/11/2009
Central Coast Mariners
Perth Glory
Bluetongue Stadium
49%
25%
26%
28/11/2009
Melbourne Victory
Gold Coast
Telstra Dome
51%
25%
24%
28/11/2009
North Queensland
Adelaide United
Dairy Farmers Stadium
40%
27%
34%
29/11/2009
Sydney FC
Newcastle Jets
Sydney Football Stadium
49%
25%
26%
29/11/2009
Queensland Roar
New Zealand
Suncorp Stadium
51%
25%
24%

Total tips for the season: 31 from 74 (42%)

Saturday, November 21, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 12 Predictions

A decent wek last round, getting 6 of the 10 results correct, against a site average of 2.9 on footytips.  This puts us within the top 2% of all tippers there at the moment.  A small collect on Everton over West Ham more than making up for backing Fulham to beat Wigan.

This round sees 12 games being played, with a catch-up game for Fulham and Blackburn, and the Hull vs Everton game being brought forward from later in the season.

Date
Home Team
Away Team
Pr Home
Pr Draw
Pr Away
21/11/2009
Birmingham City
Fulham
34%
31%
36%
21/11/2009
Burnley
Aston Villa
24%
29%
47%
21/11/2009
Chelsea
Wolverhampton Wanderers
90%
7%
3%
21/11/2009
Hull City
West Ham United
29%
30%
41%
21/11/2009
Liverpool
Manchester City
72%
18%
10%
21/11/2009
Manchester United
Everton
74%
17%
9%
21/11/2009
Sunderland
Arsenal
12%
20%
68%
22/11/2009
Bolton Wanderers
Blackburn Rovers
42%
30%
28%
22/11/2009
Stoke City
Portsmouth
48%
28%
23%
22/11/2009
Tottenham Hotspur
Wigan Athletic
63%
23%
14%
25/11/2009
Hull City
Everton
17%
25%
59%
25/11/2009
Fulham
Blackburn Rovers
51%
28%
21%

Total tips for the season: 65 from 117 (56%)

Friday, November 20, 2009

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 15 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, we tipped 3 out of the 6 results correctly and moved into 143rd spot on footytips out of the 30,000+ A-League tippers there, so well within the top 0.5%.

An interesting round this, we could easily get them all right or all wrong.  We tip Brisbane by a slender margin over Melbourne, the other games the expected winner is more obvious, will be interesting to see how they all pan out though,

Date
Team 1
Team 2
Venue
Pr T1
Pr Draw
Pr T2
20/11/2009
Adelaide United
Gold Coast
Hindmarsh Stadium
42%
26%
31%
21/11/2009
Queensland Roar
Melbourne Victory
Suncorp Stadium
36.7%
27%
36.6%
21/11/2009
North Queensland
Central Coast Mariners
Dairy Farmers Stadium
41%
27%
33%
22/11/2009
Newcastle Jets
New Zealand
EnergyAustralia Stadium
47%
26%
27%
22/11/2009
Perth Glory
Sydney FC
Members Equity Stadium
33%
27%
40%

Total tips for the season: 31 from 69 (45%)

Saturday, November 7, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 11 Predictions

Struggling to get an internet connection in the hotel room at the moment, so while I have 5 minutes in an internet cafe I'll throw up who I've tipped for this week in the EPL and hopefully get the chance to update with probabilities before too long.  Stay tuned:

Tips
  • Aston Villa
  • Blackburn
  • Manchester City
  • Tottenham
  • Arsenal
  • Stoke
  • Everton
  • Wigan
  • Chelsea
  • Liverpool

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 14 Predictions

A horror start last week getting the first 3 games wrong, but salvaged something by tipping the correct result in both of Sunday's games.  The average on footytips was also 2.0, and we only moved down 4 spots overall, so still sitting in the top 1% of all tippers there.  Betting performed well, as we noted last week North Queensland were value paying $5+ against Gold Coast, and they won comfortably so a tidy profit there.

This week sees an extra game being played on Wednesday night, with Wellington and Newcastle making up for their deffered game from last month.  Obviously the result from tonight will alter both team's ratings, however the probabilites for their games on Sunday aren't expected to change much.

Date
Team 1
Team 2
Venue
Pr T1
Pr Draw
Pr T2
4/11/2009
New Zealand
Newcastle Jets
Westpac Stadium
37%
27%
36%
6/11/2009
Adelaide United
Queensland Roar
Hindmarsh Stadium
42%
26%
31%
7/11/2009
Melbourne Victory
Central Coast Mariners
Telstra Dome
53%
24%
23%
7/11/2009
Gold Coast
Sydney FC
Skilled Park
39%
27%
35%
8/11/2009
New Zealand
Perth Glory
Westpac Stadium
41%
27%
33%
8/11/2009
Newcastle Jets
North Queensland
EnergyAustralia Stadium
40%
27%
33%

Total tips for the season: 28 from 63 (44%)

Friday, October 30, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 10 Predictions

EDIT - Given that both West Ham and Aston Villa drew over the weekend, their ratings only changed slightly, and the match probability for tomorrows game has barely changed from the posted last week.

On the surface a poor week last week, only getting 3 correct results for the round.  However the average on footytips was only 2 tips, so we actually improved the overall position from the top 5% to within the top 3%.  Also a nice week on the betting as wins on Birgmingham and Liverpool saw a return for the week of around 60%.

11 games in total to report on in the next week - the extra due to a catch-up being played between West Ham and Aston Villa which was originally meant to happen earlier in the season.  Obviously the rating for these 2 teams will change after they play their weekend matches and I will try to update this before Wednesday - however it would take something like a 10-goal result in either of their prior games for the tip to change from Villa to West Ham.

Date
Home Team
Away Team
Pr Home
Pr Draw
Pr Away
31/10/2009
Arsenal
Tottenham Hotspur
70%
19%
11%
31/10/2009
Bolton Wanderers
Chelsea
11%
19%
70%
31/10/2009
Burnley
Hull City
53%
27%
20%
31/10/2009
Everton
Aston Villa
46%
29%
25%
31/10/2009
Fulham
Liverpool
16%
24%
60%
31/10/2009
Manchester United
Blackburn Rovers
85%
10%
5%
31/10/2009
Portsmouth
Wigan Athletic
42%
30%
28%
31/10/2009
Stoke City
Wolverhampton Wanderers
54%
27%
19%
31/10/2009
Sunderland
West Ham United
39%
30%
30%
1/11/2009
Birmingham City
Manchester City
29%
30%
41%
4/11/2009
West Ham United
Aston Villa
31%
30%
39%

Total tips for the season: 54 from 96 (56%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 13 Predictions

A great round last week in the A-League, tipping 4 out of 5 correct results - Wellington's massive upset win over Gold Coast being the game we missed.  The average correct tips for the round on footytips was just 0.5 - so the results see us move to the top 1% of all tippers there.  A great week was also had by those following the predictions for betting, with bets on New Zealand, Newcastle and North Queenlsand all getting up.

This week sees Central Coast play at Canberra again, so by treating this game as a neutral venue we actually end up tipping Adelaide.  All other games appear pretty much spot on, though I notice North Queensland appear to be value paying around $5+ against Gold Coast who have struggled lately.

Date
Team 1
Team 2
Venue
Pr T1
Pr Draw
Pr T2
30/10/2009
Queensland Roar
Newcastle Jets
Suncorp Stadium
47%
26%
27%
31/10/2009
Central Coast Mariners
Adelaide United
Canberra Stadium
35%
27%
38%
31/10/2009
Gold Coast
North Queensland
Skilled Park
46%
26%
28%
1/11/2009
Sydney FC
New Zealand
Sydney Football Stadium
49%
25%
26%
1/11/2009
Perth Glory
Melbourne Victory
Members Equity Stadium
31%
26%
43%

Total tips for the season: 26 from 58 (45%)

Friday, October 23, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 9 Predictions

A slightly better than average week in the Premier League, managing to get 6 of the results correct.  This puts us within the top 5% of all tippers on footytips.

Business as usual this week, the most interesting match-up looks to be Liverpool vs Man Utd.  The model has tipped Liverpool slightly in front due to the home-ground advantage, and probably not enough time has lapsed for the injuries to their two best players - Gerrard and Torres - to be reflected in the model's ratings yet.

Date
Home Team
Away Team
Pr Home
Pr Draw
Pr Away
24/10/2009
Birmingham City
Sunderland
43%
30%
27%
24/10/2009
Bolton Wanderers
Everton
27%
30%
43%
24/10/2009
Burnley
Wigan Athletic
42%
30%
28%
24/10/2009
Chelsea
Blackburn Rovers
84%
11%
5%
24/10/2009
Hull City
Portsmouth
36%
31%
34%
24/10/2009
Manchester City
Fulham
53%
27%
20%
25/10/2009
Tottenham Hotspur
Stoke City
62%
23%
15%
25/10/2009
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Aston Villa
23%
28%
49%
25/10/2009
Liverpool
Manchester United
37%
30%
33%
25/10/2009
West Ham United
Arsenal
15%
24%
61%

Total tips for the season: 51 from 86 (59%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 12 Predictions

A good week tipping-wise in the A-Aleague last week, getting 3 of the results correct.  Interesting to hear Foxsports commentators Simon Hill and Robbie Slater comment during a game last week on how hard it was to pick winners in the A-League, something I've been saying since the start of the season.

I'm not sure the unpredicatble nature is a good thing for the health of the league - indeed when Melbourne Victory were taking all before them in the 2006/07 season the crowds grew game after game, to the point where they drew 50,000 fans for a home-and-away match against Sydney.  We won't be seeing that repeated again in a hurry.

Anyway despite the tough nature in picking winners, last weeks good results see us move into the top 5% of all tippers on footytips (as we have with the Eniglish Premier League).  Another interesting round this week - we've tipped Newcastle via the slimmest of margins against Central Coast, although given they only have to travel an hour up the road and Newcastle's crowd numbers have been dwindling, I wouldn't expect the home ground advantage to be as strong as in other circumstances.  We've also tipped the Gold Coast away to Wellington, who have had a very strong home record this season.

DateTeam 1 Team 2VenuePr T1 Pr DrawPr T2
23/10/2009Newcastle JetsCentral Coast Mariners EnergyAustralia Stadium36.64% 26.76%36.61%
24/10/2009Melbourne VictoryAdelaide United Telstra Dome49%25% 26%
24/10/2009North QueenslandPerth Glory Dairy Farmers Stadium42% 26%31%
25/10/2009New ZealandGold Coast Westpac Stadium35% 27%38%
25/10/2009Sydney FCQueensland Roar Sydney Football Stadium43% 26%31%

Total tips for the season: 22 from 53 (42%)

Saturday, October 17, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 8 Predictions

Only managed to tip 3 results correctly last week, but with the average for the round on footytips only 1.8 for the round this doesn't appear so bad.  Again no bets were made last week.

No surprises agaon this week - if anything the away teams of Manchester City and Tottenham are probably under the odds, this will likely be the case until they string together some consecutive wins - or until they play each other.

Date
Home Team
Away Team
Pr Home
Pr Draw
Pr Away
17/10/2009
Arsenal
Birmingham City
84%
11%
5%
17/10/2009
Aston Villa
Chelsea
19%
26%
55%
17/10/2009
Everton
Wolverhampton Wanderers
73%
18%
10%
17/10/2009
Manchester United
Bolton Wanderers
87%
9%
4%
17/10/2009
Portsmouth
Tottenham Hotspur
29%
30%
41%
17/10/2009
Stoke City
West Ham United
42%
30%
28%
17/10/2009
Sunderland
Liverpool
11%
20%
69%
18/10/2009
Blackburn Rovers
Burnley
53%
27%
20%
18/10/2009
Wigan Athletic
Manchester City
32%
30%
38%
19/10/2009
Fulham
Hull City
64%
22%
14%

Total tips for the season: 45 from 76 (59%)
Return on Investment for the season: +24%
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Friday, October 16, 2009

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 11 Predictions

Week 10 only saw us manage to get one result correct out of the 4 games, but again on footytips the average for the round was just 0.4 correct tips so not a total disaster.  We are still sitting in the top 9% of all tippers there so no cause for concern at all.

Back to the usual 5 games this round, and finally we tip an away team, being Melbourne against Newcastle.  Given Newcastle have had a good record over Melbourne over the years it'll be interesting to see how this games shapes up, but from a statistical point of few previous results between 2 competing clubs are a weak indicator at best.

Date
Team 1
Team 2
Venue
Pr T1
Pr Draw
Pr T2
16/10/2009
Adelaide United
Sydney FC
Hindmarsh Stadium
 40%
 27%
 34%
17/10/2009
Queensland Roar
Central Coast Mariners
Suncorp Stadium
 45%
 26%
 29%
17/10/2009
North Queensland
New Zealand
Dairy Farmers Stadium
 44%
 26%
 30%
18/10/2009
Newcastle Jets
Melbourne Victory
EnergyAustralia Stadium
 35%
 27%
 39%
18/10/2009
Gold Coast
Perth Glory
Skilled Park
 45%
 26%
 29%

Total tips for the season: 19 from 49 (39%)

Friday, October 9, 2009

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 10 Predictions

Business as usual last round in theA-League last week - tipping 2 out of 5 results as has been the case in many of the past rounds, but when the average for Round 9 on footytips was just 0.4 tips out of 5, this compares favourably.

The result sees us inside the top 6% of all tippers there, and with 18 tips total for the season this again stacks up well against the site average of 12.4.  Of the 9 rounds played so far, we've managed to tip better than average in 6 of those rounds.

This week only 4 games are being played, with Wellington and Newcastle having the week off, presumably due to New Zealand's involvement in World Cup Qualifiers against Bahrain this week.  As has been the case for most of the season we're tipping all home teams to win, and looking at the match-ups this seems pretty reasonable.  Despite Gold Coast slipping in form of late, it will be interesting to see if the fact this match is more or less a local derby plays an effect.

Date
Team 1
Team 2
Venue
Pr T1
Pr Draw
Pr T2
9/10/2009
Melbourne Victory
Sydney FC
Telstra Dome
 49%
 25%
 26%
9/10/2009
Perth Glory
Adelaide United
Members Equity Stadium
 38%
 27%
 35%
11/10/2009
Central Coast Mariners
North Queensland
Bluetongue Stadium
 44%
 26%
 30%
11/10/2009
Queensland Roar
Gold Coast
Suncorp Stadium
 46%
 26%
 28%

Total tips for the season: 18 from 45 (40%)

Friday, October 2, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 7 Predictions

Yet again tipped 7 in the Premier League last weekend, putting us in the top 6% of all tippers on footytips.  No bets of any size we placed last week so things remain as normal on the betting side.

Again a fairly straight-forward week in terms of tipping.  It will be interesting to see the results of the Aston Villa vs Manchester City game, intuition says that Man City should be rated higher than the model shows.

Date
Home Team
Away Team
Pr Home
Pr Draw
Pr Away
3/10/2009
Bolton Wanderers
Tottenham Hotspur
 31%
 30%
 39%
3/10/2009
Burnley
Birmingham City
 46%
 29%
 25%
3/10/2009
Everton
Stoke City
 68%
 20%
 12%
3/10/2009
Hull City
Wigan Athletic
 33%
 30%
 36%
3/10/2009
Manchester United
Sunderland
 89%
 7%
 3%
4/10/2009
West Ham United
Fulham
45%
 29%
 26%
4/10/2009
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Portsmouth
 43%
30%
 27%
4/10/2009
Arsenal
Blackburn Rovers
 79%
 14%
 7%
4/10/2009
Chelsea
Liverpool
 51%
 27%
 21%
5/10/2009
Aston Villa
Manchester City
 51%
 27%
 21%

Total tips for the season: 42 from 66 (64%)
Return on Investment for the season: +24%

Saturday, September 26, 2009

AFL 2009 Season - Finals Week 4 Predictions - Grand Final

Apologies again foir the late posting of these, though given the predictions it's probably best they had as little expsure as possible.  As has been the case in most of the finals the player selections has been decisive in the final probabilities.  Geelong were tipped slightly based on team form alone, but some nuances in the players selected has swung things in quite a bit in St Kilda's favour.

I find it interesting that Geelong are favoured as much as they are, they have dropped a few games recently against less favoured opposition, whereas St Kilda only lost a couple of games by less than a goal.  Perhaps they shouldn't be as highly rated as they are below, but it's a method that was worked great all season so what can you do?

Team 1
Team 2
Venue
Pr 1
Pr 2
St Kilda
Geelong
MCG
85%
14%

Total tips for the season: 128 from 184 (70%)
Total tips for finals: 5 from 8 (63%)

Friday, September 25, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 6 Predictions

As with the A-League tipping it seems consistency is the key, tipping 7 correct results for the 3rd week in a row now.  And again like the A-League we are now in the top 7% of all EPL tippers on footytips.  We are now sitting on 62.5% correct results for the year, about 5% ahead of where we'd expect to be at years end so the early season results are very promising.

It was also a great week for betting as our 4 bets for the week - Burnley, Everton, Chelsea and Manchester United - the latter result not being confirmed until the 5th minute of injury time after United had taken the lead 3 times during the match, only for City to equalise every time.

Here are this week's predicitions, no huge surprises in terms of tipping or bets.  

Date
Home Team
Away Team
Pr Home
Pr Draw
Pr Away
26/09/2009
Portsmouth
Everton
 25%
 29%
 46%
26/09/2009
Birmingham City
Bolton Wanderers
 43%
 30%
 27%
26/09/2009
Blackburn Rovers
Aston Villa
 30%
 30%
 40%
26/09/2009
Fulham
Arsenal
 18%
 25%
 57%
26/09/2009
Liverpool
Hull City
 90%
 7%
 3%
26/09/2009
Stoke City
Manchester United
 9%
 17%
 73%
26/09/2009
Tottenham Hotspur
Burnley
 64%
 22%
 14%
26/09/2009
Wigan Athletic
Chelsea
 9%
 17%
 75%
27/09/2009
Sunderland
Wolverhampton Wanderers
 45%
 29%
 26%
28/09/2009
Manchester City
West Ham United
 54%
 27%
 20%

Total tips for the season: 35 from 56 (63%)
Return on Investment for the season: +24%

Thursday, September 24, 2009

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 8 Predictions

We tipped 2 out of 5 results again for the 5th week in a row for the relatively low accuracy of 43% this season.  However, this is enough to put us in the top 7% of all A-League tippers at footytips, suggesting that perhaps so far this has been a tough season to tip - or perhaps the A-League in general is hard to tip.  A strong case for the unpredicatble nature of the A-League can be found by looking at the current form of all the teams - only one team has won more than two of it's past five games, that being Perth Glory who finished 2nd bottom last season.

The predictions for these week show we're tipping all home teams for the 2nd week in a row.  Indeed, looking at the odds for this week, the home teams are all paying between $2.35 to $2.40, so we are pretty much in line with the bookies.

Date
Team 1
Team 2
Venue
Pr T1
Pr Draw
Pr T2
25/09/2009
Newcastle Jets
Perth Glory
EnergyAustralia Stadium
 43%
 26%
 31%
26/09/2009
Gold Coast
Melbourne Victory
Skilled Park
 39%
 27%
 34%
27/09/2009
New Zealand
Central Coast Mariners
Westpac Stadium
 38%
 27%
 35%
27/09/2009
Queensland Roar
Sydney FC
Suncorp Stadium
 45%
 26%
 29%
27/09/2009
North Queensland
Adelaide United
Dairy Farmers Stadium
 40%
 27%
 33%

Total tips for the season: 15 from 35 (43%)

AFL 2009 Season - Brownlow Medal Results

An extremely successful year was had this year betting on the Brownlow medal courtesy of the predictions released on this site - thanks of course to Gary Ablett winning at odds of $3 (at least when I placed my bet), massive value when I rated him a 75% chance to win.  The only real downside was Dane Swan not polling as well as I - and most other people expected - this took out a few multiple bets I'd placed, but nonetheless a multitude of other bets out there more than made up for this.

A list of all the bets that returned a profit are listed here:
  • Gary Ablett to win - 75% @ $3
  • Jimmy Bartel to top group comprised of Cooney, B Harvey, Deledio, Jobe Watson and Scott Thompson - 21% @ $7.5
  • Bernie Vince to top group comprised of Adam Selwood, Rich, Akermanis, Hodge and Hasleby - 66% @ $2
  • Fevola to top group comprised of Koschitzke, Franklin, LeCras, Pavlich and Tredrea - 75% @ $3
  • Vince to top Adelaide - 53% @ $2.40
  • Brown to top Brisbane 82% @ $2.2
  • Winderlich to top Essendon - 17% @ $34
  • Pavlich to top Fremantle - 57% @ $4
  • Ablett to top Geelong - 99% at 1.12
  • Richardson to top Richmond - under Any Other Player (not Deledio, Foley, Tambling, Jackson or Tuck) 49% @ $4
  • LeCras to top West Coast - 34% @ 3.25
A couple of these options ended up tying with another player, effectively  halving the odds - having said that we managed to return over 50% profit on the night mainly thanks to Ablett winning and Winderlich topping Essendon at long odds.

A couple of missed opportunities were there as well - the first was Jonathan Brown to finish in the top 5 overall.  I rated him 5th in my predictions, which is exactly where he placed at massive odds of $18.  

Another was Dane Swan - he was paying $1.03 to top Collingwood's votes, whereas I rated him 91% chance, so under the odds - this represented a very nice laying opportunity where you could have taken on someone else's massive bet for a very minor risk - ie if you took $1,000 of someone's money, you would have only risked paying out $30 had Dane Swan topped Collingwood.  Turns out he didn't, so you would have pocketed the $1,000.

Still it was a very successful event overall, and in the days since I've come across a plethora of detailed player statistics that should only improve the model and it's results.  And as always, if not well we still have a model that is extremely capable.

So the only piece of AFL prediction left for the year will be the grand final, which I'll upload after the final team selections are announced.  At this stage on team form alone I'd rate Geelong slightly on top, however once we factor in the player's named this may change.  Til then.

Monday, September 21, 2009

AFL 2009 Season - Brownlow Medal Predictions

Every year for the past few years I've compiled Brownlow Medal predictions with reasonable success.  Every game I rate each player on their chance to get 3, 2, or 1 votes - then based on these probabilities I simulate the season 30,000 times in order to find the average number of votes for each player over the whole season, and their respective chance to win the medal. 

A variety of statistics are fed into the Brownlow Model - for example, each player's kicks, marks, handballs, goals, inside 50's and even the number of free kicks they give away are found to be significant predictors of how many votes they will receive.  However the two most significant predictors are the margin your team wins by, and how many Supercoach points you receive in a game.  The latter is by far the major pointer to how well a player is likely to poll, and explains why I rate Gary Ablett so highly this year, as he has by far amassed the most Supercoach points per game played.

Given that the entire season is simulated, it enables me to produce a variety predictions, not just who will win the league.  Other stats I've produced include the likelihood of there being multiple winners, how many votes the winner is likely to poll, various head to head and group propositions, and who is likely to poll the most votes for each of the teams.

One point worth noting - these predictions are all based on cold, hard, observable statistics.  There's no accounting for other reasons a player might poll well - such as being based in the midfield, having blonde hair, or being named Adam Goodes for example.  All other things being equal, a midfielder kicking for goals will likely poll higher than a forward kicking 4 goals.

So here are the predictions for this year - if there is anything else you'd like to see let me know and I should be able to work it out.  For what it's worth I rated last year's winner Adam Cooney a 15% chance to win - he paid $14 so this represents close to double what I rated him, good value indeed

Click on the link to download a spreadsheet of advanced predictions

2009 Brownlow Medal Predictions


Player
Avg Votes
% Chance
Gary Ablett
 26.8
 75.08%
Dane Swan
 22.4
 21.93%
Nick Dal Santo
 18.2
 4.84%
Leigh Montagna
 17.8
 3.56%
Jonathan Brown
 15.9
 0.85%
Brendon Goddard
 14.1
 0.64%
Paul Chapman
 15.1
 0.38%
Sam Mitchell
 13.3 
 0.00% 
Alan Didak
 14.4
 0.27%
Lenny Hayes
 12.3
 0.19%
Chris Judd
 12.4
 0.18%
Nick Riewoldt
 12.1
 0.17%
Marc Murphy
 11.5
 0.13%
Adam Goodes
 12.5
 0.06%
Bernie Vince
 10.6
 0.05%
Brendan Fevola
 12.4
 0.03%
Luke Power
 10.2
 0.03%
Matthew Boyd
 9.5
 0.03%
Joel Selwood
 10.0
 0.02%

Friday, September 18, 2009

AFL 2009 Season - Finals Week 3 Predictions

Apologies for the late posting of these, I've spent most of my free time this week getting my Brownlow Medal predictions handy, which I'll post on here shortly.

Well first off last week went according to script, firstly with the Western Bulldogs winning easily and Collingwood winning in a very close match.  Both these teams provided decent overlays as well, so profits were to be made for those betting.

I'm pretty hesitant to put the predictions up for this week, and look at the probabilities you'll soon see why, tipping both underdogs by a fairly big gap.  As has been the case with the Western Bulldogs in recent weeks, on form alone we'd rate St Kilda and Geelong on top but when the player-based aspect is added things swing in favour of the underdogs.  For what it's worth I'll be extremely happy if both of my tips are wrong, as this means St Kilda will be in the Grand Final, and more importantly Collingwood won't be.

Team 1
Team 2
Venue
Pr 1
Pr 2
St Kilda
Western Bulldogs
MCG
26.6%
71.7%
Geelong
Collingwood
MCG
20.2%
78.4%

Total tips for the season: 128 from 182 (70%)
Total tips for finals: 5 from 6 (83%)

Thursday, September 17, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 5 Predictions

Another very nice week on the tipping last week, getting 7 out of the 10 results correctly.  Currently sitting on 61% tipping success for the season, higher than I'd expected to be, so if we can keep this rate up I'll be more than happy.  A break-even week on the betting no thanks to betting on Arsenal away at Manchester City who are on the rise.

A couple of really interesting games this week - Chelsea and Manchester United at home to up and coming teams Tottenham and Manchester City - the games made even more interesting given they are both local derbies.

Date
Home Team
Away Team
Pr Home
Pr Draw
Pr Away
19/09/2009
Arsenal
Wigan Athletic
82%
12%
6%
19/09/2009
Aston Villa
Portsmouth
66%
21%
13%
19/09/2009
Bolton Wanderers
Stoke City
46%
29%
25%
19/09/2009
Burnley
Sunderland
46%
29%
25%
19/09/2009
Everton
Blackburn Rovers
62%
23%
15%
19/09/2009
Hull City
Birmingham City
38%
30%
32%
19/09/2009
West Ham United
Liverpool
15%
24%
61%
19/09/2009
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Fulham
34%
31%
36%
20/09/2009
Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur
78%
15%
7%
20/09/2009
Manchester United
Manchester City
80%
13%
7%

Total tips for the season: 28 from 46 (61%)
Return on Investment for the season: +14%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 7 Predictions

Last round we tipped 2 for the 4th week in a row, getting up the first two games then missing the last 3.  Good news is we're into the top 7% on footytips, hopefully we can keeping going higher as the weeks go on.

So here are this weeks games, no real surprises as we've gone with all the home teams - tipping Adelaide and Central Coast against Melbourne and Gold Coast respectively should prove interesting.

DateTeam 1 Team 2VenuePr T1 Pr DrawPr T2
 18/09/2009Adelaide United Melbourne VictoryHindmarsh Stadium 40%   27%  34% 
 19/09/2009 Central Coast MarinersGold CoastBluetongue Stadium  38%  27%   36% 
 20/09/2009New Zealand North QueenslandWestpac Stadium 39%   27%  34% 
 20/09/2009Sydney FC Newcastle JetsSydney Football Stadium  46%  26%   29% 
 20/09/2009Queensland Roar Perth GlorySuncorp Stadium 54%   24%  22% 

Total tips for the season: 13 from 30 (43%)

Friday, September 11, 2009

AFL 2009 Season - Finals Week 2 Predictions

We tipped 3 out of the 4 winners in the 1st week of the final - missing out the Western Bulldogs who I rated highly - which is the case again this week, in giving them a 92% chance against Brisbane, and again because of the profile of players selected (we'd still tip them just based on both teams' form alone for what it's worth).  The other game I rated almost a toss of the coin, tipping just in favour of Collingwood.  Any further teams changes would be interesting as this could sway the predicition in Adelaide's favour.

As a said last week I'm not using my predicstions to bet on the finals, primarily because the data I used to build the model is only using games from the home-and-away rounds.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr 1Pr 2
Western BulldogsBrisbaneMCG  91.7%  7.7% 
CollingwoodAdelaideMCG  49.5%  48.4% 

Total tips for the season: 126 from 180 (70%)
Total tips for finals: 3 from 4 (75%)

Thursday, September 10, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 4 Predictions

After a 2 week gap for internationals the English Premier League returns this week.  Last round we did quite well, tipping 7 out of the 10 results correctly and taking the tips to 58% for the season which is slightly ahead where'd I'd like to be by season's end, so no complaints there.

An interesting week this week, rating undefeated teams Tottenham and Manchester City as clear underdogs against Manchester United and Arsenal respectively.  The ratings for these teams haven't yet reacted to the hype surrounding them, though should these teams win against their more fancied opposition then expect their ratings so increase significantly.

DateHome Team Away TeamPr HomePr Draw Pr Away
 12/09/2009 Blackburn Rovers Wolverhampton Wanderers 53%  27%   20% 
 12/09/2009 LiverpoolBurnley 85%   10%  5% 
 12/09/2009 Manchester CityArsenal  20%  27%  53% 
 12/09/2009 PortsmouthBolton Wanderers  46%  29%  25% 
 12/09/2009 Stoke CityChelsea 10%   18%  72% 
 12/09/2009 SunderlandHull City  51%  28%  21% 
 12/09/2009 Tottenham Hotspur Manchester United 17%  25%   57% 
 12/09/2009 Wigan AthleticWest Ham United  37%  30%  32% 
 13/09/2009 Birmingham CityAston Villa  26%  29%  45% 
 13/09/2009 FulhamEverton 32%   30%  38% 

Total tips for the season: 21 from 36 (58%)
Return on Investment for the season: +23%

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 6 Predictions

Another week of 2 tips correct out of 5, not helped by a rare week where there were 3 draws.  No real surprises this week - we're justing tipping Brisbane over Newcastle.  Interesting that the Sydney vs Nth Queensland game is being played at the Sydney Cricket Ground, no reason not to treat this as a Sydney home game.

DateTeam 1 Team 2VenuePr T1 Pr DrawPr T2
 11/09/2009Adelaide United Central Coast MarinersHindmarsh Stadium  43.4%  26.3%   30.4% 
 12/09/2009Newcastle Jets Queensland RoarEnergyAustralia Stadium  36.5%  26.8%   36.7% 
 13/09/2009Sydney FC North QueenslandSydney Cricket Ground  47.6%  25.5%   26.9% 
 14/09/2009Melbourne Victory New ZealandTelstra Dome 52.3%   24.4%  23.3% 
 15/09/2009Perth Glory Gold CoastMembers Equity Stadium 33.5%   26.6%  39.9% 

Total tips for the season: 11 from 25 (44%)

Super 14 Rugby Model Analysis

I managed to get hold of past Super 14 results so decided to build a quick-and-dirty model to see what we could find.  The 14-team competition started in 2006, so I've used data from 2006 through to 2008 to create the model parameters, and tested on the 2009 season.  Well, the results so far are extremely impressive - below are a couple of graphs to show how profitable this model looks.

Tipping

In the 94 games of the 2009 season the model correctly tipped 70.5 winners, which is right on 75%.  Out of the 39,000 Super 14 tippers on footytips this would have placed us somewhere between 29th and 70th overall, which is outstanding.  As with all these models though, the real fun is to see how profitable it can be.

Betting

Head to Head Betting
Firstly we'll look at the stanndard head to head betting - simply betting on the team we think will win.  As with all my betting, I've used the Kelly Criteria.  To keep things simple we'll analyse all potential bets, provided that the probability implies an advantage over the bookmaker - regardless of the size of the advantage, or the probability of the team to win.



Return on Investment
  • All games: 21%
  • Home Team Only: 9%
  • Away Team Only: 32%
After an up and down start to the season (potentially due to the ratings taking a couple of weeks to stabilise),  the model showed consistent profits week after week for the rest of the season, particularly when betting on the away team to win.  More detailed analysis will more than likely show why the away teams are more profitable, but like I said this is just a quick analysis for now.

Margin Betting
A different type of betting option typically available is betting on the margin - the bookmaker will set what they expect the margin for the games to be, and then the price either side of that margin is even money.  As an example, if New South Wales host Queensland then the bookie might set the line at -6.5 points, which means NSW need to win by at least 7 points for that bet to win, otherewise if Queensland win, or even lose by 6 points or fewer then they win the bet. I tweaked the model to predict the probability of or going over and under any given margin, and from this we can bet on either side of the margin if we find an advantage over the bookie exists.

Again, we'll analyse all bets provided there is an overlay - regardless of the size of the overlay or the probability of beating the margin.


Return on Investment
  • All games: 23%
  • Home Team Only: -3%
  • Away Team Only: 42%
A bit disappointing that betting on the home team to win the margin showed a slight negative profit, but that is tempered by the fact that betting on the away team to beat the margin shows over 40% ROI which is amazing.  Not sure why there is such a different profile between home and away margin betting, this will require some more time to analyse - my early thoughts are that the bookies line favour the home team more than they should, hence the bets on the away team provide more value

Improvements
Like I mentioned, this model was a quick and dirty model - I literally grabbed the data from the net and had a model built in less than hour.  As such it is a pretty simple model, with the main point is that, all other things being equal, the home ground advantage is standard throughout the comp.  That is, the ACT Brumbies face the same home ground advantage by travelling a few hours up the highway to Sydney as they would by jumping on a plane and flying across the other side of the world to play in South Africa.  The first improvemnt to make is set up separate home ground advantages based on whether the opponent is from the same country or from overseas - and then perhaps more complex home ground advtanges could be applied, for example a separate one for each team.

Secondly, in the analysis shown here no filters were put in place - we bet on all teams provided there was an overlay.  Given more time, I'll apply filters based on the size of the overlay, and the probability of winning (or beating the margin).  There's no guarantees that these improvements will results in increased profitability, but if not I can just return to the model as it appears in this report and feel fairly comfortable about its profitability in the future,.  Stay tuned.

Friday, September 4, 2009

AFL 2009 Season - Finals Week 1 Predictions

5 tips in Round 22 to round off the home-and-away season, for a final figure of 123 tips (69.9%) overall which is quite respectable for a start-up model.  As I mentioned in the season review we should only see this figure to increase when I improve the model in the off-season.

In the meantime here are my predictions for week 1 of the finals series.  No surprises for 3 of games, obviously the Cats vs Dogs game is an eye-opener with the Dogs rated so high.  Again this is down to the profile of players selected, a couple of nuances in certain players profiles sees the massive probability here.  We rated the Dogs highly in their last two game against more fancied opposition and they managed to win these, so again will be interesting to see how this game pans out.  For the record I don't think I'll be betting heavily on this game, or indeed through the finals.
Team 1Team 2 VenuePr 1Pr 2
AdelaideEssendonAAMI Stadium  79.3%  19.4% 
GeelongWestern BulldogsMCG  7.9%  91.4% 
BrisbaneCarltonGabba  78.2%  20.4% 
St KildaCollingwoodMCG  68.7%  29.6% 

Total tips for the season: 123 from 176 (69.9%)
Total tips for finals: N/A

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 5 Predictions

Round 4 highlighted that form counts for nothing in the A-League, with undefeated Gold Coast losing away to Newcastle, and Melbourne losing away to lowly Perth. Still, the Newcastle win came on the back of a large suggested bet on them, so happy to trade-off some tips for profit.

Following are the Round 5 predictions - it's worth noting that the Central Coast vs Perth game is held in somewhat neutral Canberra. To my knowledge there hasn't been a neutral venue in the A-League before, hence I can't properly model what happens at a neutral venue. I've been able to tweek parameters though as though there is no home ground advantage, so we'll see how we go. For what it's worth, Central Coast would have been rated 46% had it been held at their home ground.

DateTeam 1Team 2VenuePr T1Pr DrawPr T2
3/09/2009Melbourne VictoryNewcastle JetsTelstra Dome49% 25% 26%
4/09/2009New ZealandAdelaide UnitedWestpac Stadium37% 27% 36%
4/09/2009Central Coast MarinersPerth GloryCanberra Stadium40% 27% 34%
5/09/2009Gold CoastSydney FCSkilled Park42% 26% 32%
5/09/2009North QueenslandQueensland RoarDairy Farmers Stadium35% 27% 39%

Total tips for the season: 9 from 20 (45%)