AFL 2010 Season - Round 10 Predictions

Back to tipping 6 last week which is a Good sign - the two games we missed out on were Port losing by a point against Melbourne (albeit that were much further down at three-quarter time), and Carlton losing to Hawthorn despite being healthy favourites. Still, we managed a couple of good tips on outsiders in Fremantle away to Sydney, and Adelaide over Brisbane - obviously these were bets as well. Combined with the western Bulldogs who we rated sure things against North Melbourne and it was another profitable week.


This week sees the model agreeing with the bookmakers in just about every game - last night we actually would have had a small bet on Essendon so good signs there. A couple of potential bets include Brisbane at home tonight against Collingwood, and Freo at home tomorrow against North Melbourne.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Essendon	Western Bulldogs	Telstra Dome	29%	70%
Geelong	Melbourne	Skilled Stadium	70%	29%
Port Adelaide	Richmond	AAMI Stadium	80%	19%
Brisbane	Collingwood	Gabba	37%	62%
St Kilda	Adelaide	Telstra Dome	83%	16%
Hawthorn	Sydney	MCG	74%	25%
Carlton	West Coast	Telstra Dome	73%	25%
Fremantle	North Melbourne	Subiaco	93%	7%

Super 14 2010 Season - Semi Final Predictions

A perfect week last week in the Super 14s, tipping all 7 winners correctly - and at odds of roughly 13 to 1 so it was no sure thing this would happen.

This weeks sees the semi-finals, with South African teams hosting a team each from Australia and NZ.  There's slight value on the away teams here, so likely we'll be having a small bet on both teams to beat the line.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
22/05/2010	Bulls	Crusaders	58%	39%
22/05/2010	Stormers	Waratahs	65%	32%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 9 Predictions

A pretty horrible last week, crashing back to earth with only 3 tips.  And not much better on the betting, though a close call on Richmond certainly would have changed our fortunes.

Not a lot of surprises this wekk - we tip against the favourite in a coupel of close games but otherwise the probs match up with the bookies' odds quite well.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Collingwood	Geelong	MCG	49%	50%
North Melbourne	Western Bulldogs	Telstra Dome	10%	90%
Sydney	Fremantle	SCG	47%	52%
Melbourne	Port Adelaide	TIO Stadium	39%	60%
Essendon	Richmond	MCG	76%	23%
Adelaide	Brisbane	AAMI Stadium	53%	45%
Carlton	Hawthorn	Telstra Dome	68%	30%
West Coast	St Kilda	Subiaco	46%	52%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 8 Predictions

It was one of thoseweeks in the AFL last round, we tipped a pretty respectable 6 from 8, including tipping the upset of Fremantle winning away to Brisbane.  As luck would have it though the two bets I had happenes to be on the two tips I missed out on, so no joy on the betting side.

This week sees a few interesting picks - Freo to win quite easily over Collingwood and Brisbane to beat Geelong.  I'll be betting on all home teams, with the exception of the St Kilda vs Essendon game where I'll probably end up with a small wager on the Bombers.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Fremantle	Collingwood	Subiaco	69%	29%
Western Bulldogs	Sydney	Manuka Oval	78%	21%
Melbourne	West Coast	MCG	78%	20%
Brisbane	Geelong	Gabba	58%	40%
North Melbourne	Adelaide	Telstra Dome	67%	31%
Richmond	Hawthorn	MCG	32%	66%
Port Adelaide	Carlton	AAMI Stadium	55%	43%
St Kilda	Essendon	Telstra Dome	61%	37%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 14 Predictions

Apologies for missing predictions last week - inetrnet issues at home made it too difficult to get predicitons out.  For the record we tipped 5 from 7 results, and the big bet on the Crusaders to cover the line over the Bulls managed to get up by a few points.

It's the last round of the regular season this weekend, and we end up tipping all the home teams.   Typically enough though we end up with a few big bets on away teams to cover the line - Chiefs, Highlanders and Lions all tipped to cover the spread.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
14/05/2010	Crusaders	Brumbies	74%	24%
14/05/2010	Waratahs	Hurricanes	60%	36%
14/05/2010	Sharks	W Force	84%	14%
15/05/2010	Blues	Chiefs	65%	32%
15/05/2010	Reds	Highlanders	66%	31%
15/05/2010	Cheetahs	Lions	74%	23%
15/05/2010	Stormers	Bulls	55%	42%