Saturday, May 29, 2010

AFL 2010 Season - Round 10 Predictions

Back to tipping 6 last week which is a Good sign - the two games we missed out on were Port losing by a point against Melbourne (albeit that were much further down at three-quarter time), and Carlton losing to Hawthorn despite being healthy favourites. Still, we managed a couple of good tips on outsiders in Fremantle away to Sydney, and Adelaide over Brisbane - obviously these were bets as well. Combined with the western Bulldogs who we rated sure things against North Melbourne and it was another profitable week.

This week sees the model agreeing with the bookmakers in just about every game - last night we actually would have had a small bet on Essendon so good signs there. A couple of potential bets include Brisbane at home tonight against Collingwood, and Freo at home tomorrow against North Melbourne.

Team 1Team 2 VenueProb 1Prob 2
EssendonWestern Bulldogs Telstra Dome29%70%
GeelongMelbourneSkilled Stadium 70%29%
Port AdelaideRichmondAAMI Stadium 80%19%
BrisbaneCollingwoodGabba 37%62%
St KildaAdelaideTelstra Dome 83%16%
HawthornSydneyMCG 74%25%
CarltonWest CoastTelstra Dome 73%25%
FremantleNorth MelbourneSubiaco 93%7%

Friday, May 21, 2010

Super 14 2010 Season - Semi Final Predictions

A perfect week last week in the Super 14s, tipping all 7 winners correctly - and at odds of roughly 13 to 1 so it was no sure thing this would happen.

This weeks sees the semi-finals, with South African teams hosting a team each from Australia and NZ.  There's slight value on the away teams here, so likely we'll be having a small bet on both teams to beat the line.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
22/05/2010BullsCrusaders 58%39%
22/05/2010StormersWaratahs 65%32%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 9 Predictions

A pretty horrible last week, crashing back to earth with only 3 tips.  And not much better on the betting, though a close call on Richmond certainly would have changed our fortunes.

Not a lot of surprises this wekk - we tip against the favourite in a coupel of close games but otherwise the probs match up with the bookies' odds quite well.

Team 1Team 2 VenueProb 1Prob 2
CollingwoodGeelongMCG 49%50%
North MelbourneWestern Bulldogs Telstra Dome10%90%
SydneyFremantleSCG 47%52%
MelbournePort AdelaideTIO Stadium 39%60%
EssendonRichmondMCG 76%23%
AdelaideBrisbaneAAMI Stadium 53%45%
CarltonHawthornTelstra Dome 68%30%
West CoastSt KildaSubiaco 46%52%

Friday, May 14, 2010

AFL 2010 Season - Round 8 Predictions

It was one of thoseweeks in the AFL last round, we tipped a pretty respectable 6 from 8, including tipping the upset of Fremantle winning away to Brisbane.  As luck would have it though the two bets I had happenes to be on the two tips I missed out on, so no joy on the betting side.

This week sees a few interesting picks - Freo to win quite easily over Collingwood and Brisbane to beat Geelong.  I'll be betting on all home teams, with the exception of the St Kilda vs Essendon game where I'll probably end up with a small wager on the Bombers.

Team 1Team 2 VenueProb 1Prob 2
FremantleCollingwoodSubiaco 69%29%
Western BulldogsSydneyManuka Oval 78%21%
MelbourneWest CoastMCG 78%20%
BrisbaneGeelongGabba 58%40%
North MelbourneAdelaide Telstra Dome67%31%
RichmondHawthornMCG 32%66%
Port AdelaideCarltonAAMI Stadium 55%43%
St KildaEssendonTelstra Dome 61%37%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 14 Predictions

Apologies for missing predictions last week - inetrnet issues at home made it too difficult to get predicitons out.  For the record we tipped 5 from 7 results, and the big bet on the Crusaders to cover the line over the Bulls managed to get up by a few points.

It's the last round of the regular season this weekend, and we end up tipping all the home teams.   Typically enough though we end up with a few big bets on away teams to cover the line - Chiefs, Highlanders and Lions all tipped to cover the spread.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
14/05/2010Crusaders Brumbies74%24%
14/05/2010Waratahs Hurricanes60%36%
14/05/2010Sharks W Force84%14%
15/05/2010Blues Chiefs65%32%
15/05/2010Reds Highlanders66%31%
15/05/2010Cheetahs Lions74%23%
15/05/2010Stormers Bulls55%42%