Friday, August 27, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 3 Predictions

A pretty average week in EPL tipping, getting 5 of the games right and losing both the bets on Everton and West Ham.  Still, with 10 tips so far for the year we're already sitting in the top 15% on footytips, and that will only improve as the season progresses.

Not much to get excited about this week - I've tipped all the favourites, and for the first time in a long time there's no games suggested for me to bet on.  Probably not such a bad thing that from time to time my model is pretty close to what the bookies are saying.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T2
Aston Villa Everton41%30%29%
Blackburn Rovers Arsenal20%27%53%
BlackpoolFulham 35%31%35%
Bolton Wanderers Birmingham City43%30%27%
Chelsea Stoke City87%9%4%
Liverpool West Bromwich Albion78%15% 7%
Manchester United West Ham United88%9%4%
Sunderland Manchester City25%29%46%
Tottenham Hotspur Wigan Athletic75%16%8%
Wolverhampton Wanderers Newcastle United44%30% 27%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 4 Predictions

Finally a great week in the A-League last week - getting the first 4 games correct, and only missing out on a perfect week due to the drawn game between Melbourne Victory and North Queensland - one of the stranger games I've ever watched with 3 penalties and 2 red cards awarded.  Still, our win on Brisbane Roar over Sydney more than made up for the 2 smaller bets which lost, making it a great week overall.

As usual we're tipping all home games this week, and betting again on Brisbane and North Queensland.  Melbourne Heart are technically a bet as well, though I might give this game a miss and wait til the Heart have played a few more games before betting on them.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T2
Queensland RoarNew ZealandSuncorp Stadium 51%25% 25%
North QueenslandAdelaide United Dairy Farmers Stadium44% 26%30%
Sydney FCCentral Coast Mariners Sydney Football Stadium46% 26%28%
Gold CoastMelbourne VictorySkilled Park 41%26% 33%
Melbourne HeartPerth GloryAAMI Park 44%26% 30%

Friday, August 20, 2010

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 3 Predictions

Well at least last week we improved in the A-League tipping, getting 1 game right were previously we had none.  That there has been 7 draws in the 10 games so far hasn't helped, as my rule of thumb is to never tip a draw.

Still, betting wise there were nice wins to be had on North Queensland and Perth against last year's grand finalists Sydney and Melbourne respectively.

This week sees us tipping all home teams again, and betting on Newcastle, Brisbane and North Queensland.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T2
Adelaide UnitedMelbourne Heart Hindmarsh Stadium44% 26%30%
Perth GloryNewcastle Jetsnib Stadium 49%25% 26%
Queensland RoarSydney FCSuncorp Stadium 42%26% 31%
New ZealandCentral Coast Mariners Westpac Stadium37% 26%36%
Melbourne VictoryNorth QueenslandAAMI Park 51%24% 24%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 2 Predictions

Apologies for not  posting my picks for the first week of the EPL - for the record we had 5 correct tips when the average on footytips was 4.5.

This week the only real curve-ball is we've tipped Liverpool to win away to Manchester City - I still don't rate City as high as the bookies, they'll need to start putting in some decent consistent performances against clubs like Liverpool before I do.

Home TeamAway Team Pr HomePr DrawPr Away
Arsenal Blackpool83%11%5%
Birmingham City Blackburn Rovers40%30% 30%
Everton Wolverhampton Wanderers72%18% 10%
Fulham Manchester United13%21% 66%
Manchester City Liverpool32%31%37%
Newcastle United Aston Villa25%29%46%
Stoke City Tottenham Hotspur29%30% 41%
West Bromwich Albion Sunderland45%29%25%
West Ham United Bolton Wanderers49%29% 23%
Wigan Athletic Chelsea7%14%78%

Thursday, August 12, 2010

EPL 2010-11 Season Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming English Premier League season.

The predictions come about through simulating the entire fixture for the upcoming season 100,000 times, based on ratings that are updated after each game.  Ratings at the start of the season are based on those at the end of last season - so things like off-season signings and pre-season form aren't taken into account.

Again it looks as though Chelsea and Manchester United are the only value for winning the Premiership - this was the case at the start of last season, and before too Long these were pretty safe bets.

Isolating a few other teams - Manchester City and Tottenham I've predicted to not go as well as last year, whereas the Merseysiders in Liverpool and Everton I've lobbed as going better.  Indeed, a quick guide to the points I expect teams to get is pretty close to the average they received in the last two season, so in a sense I expect a sort of regression to the mean rather than sustained improvement.  Tottenham improved 20 points last season, whereas Liverpool dipped 20 points - it's more than likely these teams will not keep those rates going this season.

That Manchester City are third favourite for the Premiership I find laughable - they finished 20 points behind winners Chelsea, and I'd find it impressive if they were able to bridge that gap in the space of one season.  Still, I suppose stranger things have happened.

TeamPointsPr Win Pr Win (Excl Big 4)
Chelsea88.5 45.4%N/A
Manchester United87.8 41.1%N/A
Arsenal77.4 7.5%N/A
Liverpool74.9 4.8%N/A
Everton65.30.6% 35.9%
Tottenham Hotspur61.5 0.3%21.8%
Aston Villa60.8 0.2%19.5%
Manchester City60 0.2%17.3%
Blackburn Rovers47.2 0.0%1.8%
Fulham45.40.0% 1.2%
Stoke City43.1 0.0%0.7%
Birmingham City41.5 0.0%0.5%
West Ham United40.4 0.0%0.3%
Sunderland39.1 0.0%0.3%
Newcastle United38.1 0.0%0.2%
West Bromwich Albion38 0.0%0.2%
Bolton Wanderers37.9 0.0%0.2%
Wolverhampton Wanderers36.6 0.0%0.1%
Wigan Athletic34.4 0.0%0.1%
Blackpool32.4 0.0%0.0%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 2 Predictions

Well off to a pretty ordinairy start, not getting a tip right out of the 5 opening games.  The fact that 4 of the games were draws doesn't help, as I never tip a draw in the A-league.

So onto Week 2 now, a bit of a surprise in that we've tipped North Queensland to beat Sydney FC, and they did impress in a 3-3 draw over in Perth, so with any luck they can cause a boilover here.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T2
New ZealandGold CoastWestpac Stadium 39%26% 35%
Newcastle JetsMelbourne Heart EnergyAustralia Stadium41% 26%32%
North QueenslandSydney FCDairy Farmers Stadium 40%26% 34%
Melbourne VictoryPerth GloryAAMI Park 49%25% 26%
Central Coast MarinersAdelaide United Bluetongue Stadium48% 25%27%

Thursday, August 5, 2010

A-League 2010 - 11 Season - Week 1 Predictions

Here are the first lot of tips for the 2010/11 season of the Hyundai A-League.  I've revised the model slightly over the off-season such that last year we would have finished in the top 10 of all tippers on footytips. Mind you we did actually finish 52nd so the old model was nothing to sneeze at.

Team 1Team 2VenuePr T1 Pr DrawPr T2
Melbourne HeartCentral Coast Mariners AAMI Park42.6%26.1% 31.3%
Adelaide UnitedNewcastle Jets Hindmarsh Stadium47.2% 25.3%27.4%
Perth GloryNorth Queensland nib Stadium47.4%25.3% 27.3%
Sydney FCMelbourne Victory Sydney Football Stadium43.3% 26.0%30.7%
Gold CoastQueensland Roar Skilled Park44.3% 25.9%29.9%

Hyundai A-League 2010 - 11 Season Predictions

Well it's been a while since I posted here - the letdown after the World Cup and general laziness in getting AFL tips up here a major factor.

But now that soccer / football seasons are about to start worldwide, motivation is high.  Also because these models seem to provide the best mix of betting profitability and easiness to update.

So here are my thoughts on the upcoming A-League season, starting tonight when new team Melbourne Heart take on Central Coast.  The table below may raise a few eyebrows, not so much the top 2 teams but just underneath.  Apart from Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC, there really hasn't been a team which has performed consistently season after season - as form is hard to come by and recent form tends to be over-exaggerated.  As such, I've rated teams like Central Coast and Brisbane Roar higher than the market does as they have done relatively well over time, and weren't too far from the finals last year.

Best of luck to those who follow these predictions!

TeamAvg PointsPr Win Minor Pr Win GF
Melbourne Victory50.8 28.3%24.4%
Sydney FC47.9 17.7%17.0%
Central Coast Mariners46.1 13.0%13.1%
Perth Glory44.1 8.5%9.0%
Queensland Roar44.1 8.5%9.2%
Gold Coast43.2 7.0%7.9%
Melbourne Heart42.5 6.2%7.1%
Adelaide United41.5 4.9%5.4%
North Queensland39.7 3.2%3.7%
Newcastle Jets37.7 1.8%2.3%
New Zealand34.7 0.7%0.9%