A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 19 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, we tipped 5 of 7 winners to move into the top 1% overall on on footytips. To date I can't remember being in the top 1% for both A-League and EPL at the same time - so something of a milestone.  Not such a good week on the betting though, the only highlight being North Queensland's win over Sydney on Wednesday night.

No surprises this week - a couple of small bets on rank outsiders Perth and North Queensland - I'll be happy if either of those get up.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Adelaide United	Melbourne Heart	Hindmarsh Stadium	46%	26%	28%
New Zealand	Newcastle Jets	AMI Stadium	41%	26%	33%
Melbourne Victory	Perth Glory	AAMI Park	50%	25%	25%
North Queensland	Queensland Roar	Dairy Farmers Stadium	40%	26%	34%
Gold Coast	Central Coast Mariners	Skilled Park	43%	26%	31%
Central Coast Mariners	North Queensland	Bluetongue Stadium	50%	25%	25%
Perth Glory	Adelaide United	nib Stadium	44%	26%	30%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 18 Predictions

Last week we tipped 3 of 6 winners, good enough to move us into the top 2% of all tippers on footytips.  We were unfortunate not to collect a large amount on the Victory game as they led going into the 93rd minute, but then again they were 2-0 down so they were lucky to hit the lead at all.

This week we tip the nominal away team, being Melbourne Victory against their hometown rivals Heart.  Apart from this game, we are betting on all games this weekend, with bets on North Queensland, Wellington, Sydney and Perth.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Adelaide United	North Queensland	Hindmarsh Stadium	47%	25%	28%
Melbourne Heart	Melbourne Victory	AAMI Park	32%	26%	42%
Gold Coast	New Zealand	Skilled Park	52%	24%	24%
Sydney FC	Queensland Roar	Sydney Football Stadium	45%	26%	29%
Perth Glory	Central Coast Mariners	nib Stadium	42%	26%	32%
Newcastle Jets	Gold Coast	EnergyAustralia Stadium	41%	26%	32%
North Queensland	Sydney FC	Dairy Farmers Stadium	40%	26%	34%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 17 Predictions

It's been a while since I last post on here due to my laptop's surprise sabatical, so thought I'd quivkly post on here while I had the chance.

The A-League tipping has been going well, the betting not so well - although a nice win by North Queesnland away to Gold Coast at odds of $4.60 clawed us back somewhat.

This week sees a 6-game round, as per usual we've gone with all home teams - even in tonight's game featuring Victory hosting table-topping Brisbane, and Wellington hosting a red-hot Adelaide. A decent bet on Melbourne tonight too, though seeing as I'm sitting on a ticket with Brisbane to top the table at the end of the seeing at odds of $51, I won't be too fussed if Brisbane win tonight.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Melbourne Victory	Queensland Roar	AAMI Park	47%	25%	28%
Central Coast Mariners	Sydney FC	Bluetongue Stadium	44%	26%	30%
North Queensland	Newcastle Jets	Dairy Farmers Stadium	46%	26%	28%
New Zealand	Adelaide United	Westpac Stadium	39%	26%	35%
Gold Coast	Melbourne Heart	Skilled Park	46%	26%	28%
Melbourne Heart	Newcastle Jets	AAMI Park	47%	25%	27%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 14 Predictions

Laptop issues meant I missed putting up last week's predictions - for the record it was a below-par week only managing 3 from 7 tips, although we still sit in the top 6% on footytips.

Another 7-game round this week - and a rarity in that we've tipped an away side, with the model saying Central Coast are in good enough form to win away in New Zealand.  Some medium-sized bets on Heart, Newcastle and Perth make this round a little more inetresting.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Gold Coast	Sydney FC	Skilled Park	42%	26%	32%
New Zealand	Central Coast Mariners	Westpac Stadium	36%	26%	37%
Newcastle Jets	Adelaide United	EnergyAustralia Stadium	42%	26%	32%
Melbourne Heart	Queensland Roar	AAMI Park	43%	26%	31%
Perth Glory	Melbourne Victory	nib Stadium	40%	26%	34%
Newcastle Jets	Queensland Roar	EnergyAustralia Stadium	40%	26%	34%
Melbourne Victory	Central Coast Mariners	AAMI Park	47%	25%	28%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 12 Predictions

In a shortened round we tipped 2 for 4 game, and held our position in the top 3% on footytips.

This week we're again tipping all home teams in an extended round of 7 games, although I've had to make some minor adjustments to the model given that two teams are hosting matches on neutral ground.  So Central Coast at Sydney and Newcastle at Port Macquarie I'm treating as not quite a home team, but definitely not away - since they're expected to have the bulk of the crowd behind them and not have to travel as far as their opponents. 

On the betting front we'll likely be having bets on Victory, Sydney FC and North Queensland.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Melbourne Victory	Adelaide United	Etihad Stadium	50%	25%	26%
Central Coast Mariners	Perth Glory	Sydney Football Stadium	43%	26%	31%
Sydney FC	Queensland Roar	Sydney Football Stadium	47%	25%	28%
Newcastle Jets	Melbourne Heart	Port Macquarie	38%	26%	35%
North Queensland	Gold Coast	Dairy Farmers Stadium	42%	26%	32%
New Zealand	Queensland Roar	Westpac Stadium	38%	26%	35%
Perth Glory	Melbourne Heart	nib Stadium	45%	26%	29%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 11 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, getting 3 results correct - good enough to be in the top 4% for the week and top 3% overall on footytips.  On the betting we broke even, collecting 2 out of 4 bets.

This week's round is back to 5 games, although the 5th game is on a Wednesday.  As usual we tip all home teams - if it ain't broke...

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Adelaide United	New Zealand	Hindmarsh Stadium	50%	25%	25%
Melbourne Heart	Gold Coast	AAMI Park	44%	26%	30%
Queensland Roar	Melbourne Victory	Suncorp Stadium	41%	26%	33%
Perth Glory	Sydney FC	nib Stadium	43%	26%	31%
Newcastle Jets	North Queensland	EnergyAustralia Stadium	44%	26%	30%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 10 Predictions

We only managed to tip 2 for the last round, yet strangely enough that was good enough for the top 19% for the week on footytips and means we're still in the top 5% overall.  Our switch to the "away" team for the first time this year proved a hex as Melbourne Heart beat Melbourne victory in the first ever true local derby of the A-League.

No doubt spurned by straying outside the line, we go back to tipping all home teams this week.   We're also betting quite a few games as well, with wagers on North Queensland as always, Victory, Newcastle and the Gold Coast.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
North Queensland	Perth Glory	Dairy Farmers Stadium	42%	26%	32%
Melbourne Victory	Sydney FC	Etihad Stadium	46%	26%	28%
Queensland Roar	Newcastle Jets	Suncorp Stadium	49%	25%	26%
New Zealand	Melbourne Heart	Westpac Stadium	40%	26%	34%
Gold Coast	Adelaide United	Skilled Park	46%	26%	29%
Queensland Roar	Central Coast Mariners	Suncorp Stadium	43%	26%	31%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 9 Predictions

Last week got off to a flyer, tipping the first 3 results correct, then we missed the following 3 due to them being draws.  Small bets on Newcastle and North Queensland failed to get up, but we're still well up for the season so nothing to worry about there.

This round goes back to 5 games, with the Melbourne derby being pushed back a week due to the AFL grand final replay.  This games marks the first game this year I've tipped an away side, although only on a technicality as it's Heart's home game, and we're tipping Victory.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Gold Coast	New Zealand	Skilled Park	50%	25%	25%
Central Coast Mariners	North Queensland	Bluetongue Stadium	49%	25%	26%
Perth Glory	Queensland Roar	nib Stadium	44%	26%	30%
Sydney FC	Adelaide United	Sydney Football Stadium	48%	25%	27%
Melbourne Heart	Melbourne Victory	AAMI Park	32%	26%	41%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 8 Predictions

A pretty good week last week in the A-League, getting 3 results correct and moving into the top 3% overall on footytips  Also good wins by Newcastle and Melbourne Heart made it a profitable week.

Not many surprises this week, again going with all home teams.  And no betting either - so we can just sit back and hope that home teams win for tipping.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Gold Coast	Newcastle Jets	Skilled Park	48%	25%	27%
New Zealand	North Queensland	Westpac Stadium	42%	26%	32%
Adelaide United	Perth Glory	Hindmarsh Stadium	43%	26%	31%
Queensland Roar	Melbourne Heart	Suncorp Stadium	45%	26%	29%
Newcastle Jets	Melbourne Victory	EnergyAustralia Stadium	37%	26%	36%
Sydney FC	Gold Coast	Sydney Football Stadium	47%	25%	27%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 6 Predictions

Another decent week last week - getting3 of the 5 results correct and also landing the decent bet on Central Coast over Melbourne on the Friday night.

This week sees a 6-game round for the first time this season, with Melbourne Victory playing Wellington on Wednesday.  Again we tip all home teams, although only just tipping Wellington slightly over Sydney.  Not much in terms of betting this week, technically we'd be betting on Newcastle against Adelaide, although given their club's situation at the moment, I'll be sitting that one out.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Central Coast Mariners	Melbourne Heart	Bluetongue Stadium	47%	25%	28%
New Zealand	Sydney FC	Westpac Stadium	36.9%	26%	36.7%
Adelaide United	Newcastle Jets	Hindmarsh Stadium	48%	25%	27%
Melbourne Victory	Queensland Roar	AAMI Park	48%	25%	27%
Perth Glory	Gold Coast	nib Stadium	45%	26%	29%
Melbourne Victory	New Zealand	AAMI Park	66%	12%	22%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 5 Predictions

Back to an average week in tipping, only getting the Friday night result correct last week.  However the bet on that game made another profitable week, thanks in part to avoiding the Melbourne Heart game which would have ended in heartbreak, given Perth scored a dubious 94th minute penatly to square it up.

This week as usual we tip all home games, with a decent bet tonight on Central Coast -should that get up then it will be another profitable week.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Central Coast Mariners	Melbourne Victory	Bluetongue Stadium	42%	26%	31%
Melbourne Heart	North Queensland	AAMI Park	47%	25%	28%
Sydney FC	Adelaide United	Sydney Football Stadium	49%	25%	26%
Newcastle Jets	Queensland Roar	EnergyAustralia Stadium	41%	26%	33%
Perth Glory	New Zealand	nib Stadium	51%	24%	25%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 4 Predictions

Finally a great week in the A-League last week - getting the first 4 games correct, and only missing out on a perfect week due to the drawn game between Melbourne Victory and North Queensland - one of the stranger games I've ever watched with 3 penalties and 2 red cards awarded.  Still, our win on Brisbane Roar over Sydney more than made up for the 2 smaller bets which lost, making it a great week overall.

As usual we're tipping all home games this week, and betting again on Brisbane and North Queensland.  Melbourne Heart are technically a bet as well, though I might give this game a miss and wait til the Heart have played a few more games before betting on them.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Queensland Roar	New Zealand	Suncorp Stadium	51%	25%	25%
North Queensland	Adelaide United	Dairy Farmers Stadium	44%	26%	30%
Sydney FC	Central Coast Mariners	Sydney Football Stadium	46%	26%	28%
Gold Coast	Melbourne Victory	Skilled Park	41%	26%	33%
Melbourne Heart	Perth Glory	AAMI Park	44%	26%	30%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 3 Predictions

Well at least last week we improved in the A-League tipping, getting 1 game right were previously we had none.  That there has been 7 draws in the 10 games so far hasn't helped, as my rule of thumb is to never tip a draw.

Still, betting wise there were nice wins to be had on North Queensland and Perth against last year's grand finalists Sydney and Melbourne respectively.

This week sees us tipping all home teams again, and betting on Newcastle, Brisbane and North Queensland.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Adelaide United	Melbourne Heart	Hindmarsh Stadium	44%	26%	30%
Perth Glory	Newcastle Jets	nib Stadium	49%	25%	26%
Queensland Roar	Sydney FC	Suncorp Stadium	42%	26%	31%
New Zealand	Central Coast Mariners	Westpac Stadium	37%	26%	36%
Melbourne Victory	North Queensland	AAMI Park	51%	24%	24%

EPL 2010-11 Season Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming English Premier League season.

The predictions come about through simulating the entire fixture for the upcoming season 100,000 times, based on ratings that are updated after each game.  Ratings at the start of the season are based on those at the end of last season - so things like off-season signings and pre-season form aren't taken into account.

Again it looks as though Chelsea and Manchester United are the only value for winning the Premiership - this was the case at the start of last season, and before too Long these were pretty safe bets.

Isolating a few other teams - Manchester City and Tottenham I've predicted to not go as well as last year, whereas the Merseysiders in Liverpool and Everton I've lobbed as going better.  Indeed, a quick guide to the points I expect teams to get is pretty close to the average they received in the last two season, so in a sense I expect a sort of regression to the mean rather than sustained improvement.  Tottenham improved 20 points last season, whereas Liverpool dipped 20 points - it's more than likely these teams will not keep those rates going this season.

That Manchester City are third favourite for the Premiership I find laughable - they finished 20 points behind winners Chelsea, and I'd find it impressive if they were able to bridge that gap in the space of one season.  Still, I suppose stranger things have happened.

Team	Points	Pr Win	Pr Win (Excl Big 4)
Chelsea	88.5	45.4%	N/A
Manchester United	87.8	41.1%	N/A
Arsenal	77.4	7.5%	N/A
Liverpool	74.9	4.8%	N/A
Everton	65.3	0.6%	35.9%
Tottenham Hotspur	61.5	0.3%	21.8%
Aston Villa	60.8	0.2%	19.5%
Manchester City	60	0.2%	17.3%
Blackburn Rovers	47.2	0.0%	1.8%
Fulham	45.4	0.0%	1.2%
Stoke City	43.1	0.0%	0.7%
Birmingham City	41.5	0.0%	0.5%
West Ham United	40.4	0.0%	0.3%
Sunderland	39.1	0.0%	0.3%
Newcastle United	38.1	0.0%	0.2%
West Bromwich Albion	38	0.0%	0.2%
Bolton Wanderers	37.9	0.0%	0.2%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	36.6	0.0%	0.1%
Wigan Athletic	34.4	0.0%	0.1%
Blackpool	32.4	0.0%	0.0%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 2 Predictions

Well off to a pretty ordinairy start, not getting a tip right out of the 5 opening games.  The fact that 4 of the games were draws doesn't help, as I never tip a draw in the A-league.

So onto Week 2 now, a bit of a surprise in that we've tipped North Queensland to beat Sydney FC, and they did impress in a 3-3 draw over in Perth, so with any luck they can cause a boilover here.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
New Zealand	Gold Coast	Westpac Stadium	39%	26%	35%
Newcastle Jets	Melbourne Heart	EnergyAustralia Stadium	41%	26%	32%
North Queensland	Sydney FC	Dairy Farmers Stadium	40%	26%	34%
Melbourne Victory	Perth Glory	AAMI Park	49%	25%	26%
Central Coast Mariners	Adelaide United	Bluetongue Stadium	48%	25%	27%

A-League 2010 - 11 Season - Week 1 Predictions

Here are the first lot of tips for the 2010/11 season of the Hyundai A-League.  I've revised the model slightly over the off-season such that last year we would have finished in the top 10 of all tippers on footytips. Mind you we did actually finish 52nd so the old model was nothing to sneeze at.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Melbourne Heart	Central Coast Mariners	AAMI Park	42.6%	26.1%	31.3%
Adelaide United	Newcastle Jets	Hindmarsh Stadium	47.2%	25.3%	27.4%
Perth Glory	North Queensland	nib Stadium	47.4%	25.3%	27.3%
Sydney FC	Melbourne Victory	Sydney Football Stadium	43.3%	26.0%	30.7%
Gold Coast	Queensland Roar	Skilled Park	44.3%	25.9%	29.9%

Hyundai A-League 2010 - 11 Season Predictions

Well it's been a while since I posted here - the letdown after the World Cup and general laziness in getting AFL tips up here a major factor.

But now that soccer / football seasons are about to start worldwide, motivation is high.  Also because these models seem to provide the best mix of betting profitability and easiness to update.


So here are my thoughts on the upcoming A-League season, starting tonight when new team Melbourne Heart take on Central Coast.  The table below may raise a few eyebrows, not so much the top 2 teams but just underneath.  Apart from Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC, there really hasn't been a team which has performed consistently season after season - as form is hard to come by and recent form tends to be over-exaggerated.  As such, I've rated teams like Central Coast and Brisbane Roar higher than the market does as they have done relatively well over time, and weren't too far from the finals last year.

Best of luck to those who follow these predictions!

Team	Avg Points	Pr Win Minor	Pr Win GF
Melbourne Victory	50.8	28.3%	24.4%
Sydney FC	47.9	17.7%	17.0%
Central Coast Mariners	46.1	13.0%	13.1%
Perth Glory	44.1	8.5%	9.0%
Queensland Roar	44.1	8.5%	9.2%
Gold Coast	43.2	7.0%	7.9%
Melbourne Heart	42.5	6.2%	7.1%
Adelaide United	41.5	4.9%	5.4%
North Queensland	39.7	3.2%	3.7%
Newcastle Jets	37.7	1.8%	2.3%
New Zealand	34.7	0.7%	0.9%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 31 Predictions

Last week saw us tip 7 from 11 and move up to 457th place overall on the footytips ladder.

A mammoth week of games, we 4 games played yesterday morning andanother 10 before the week is out.  No major suprprises here, the only real eyebrow raiser is Aston villa being rated so poorly against Chelsea, but it seems to be in line with what the bookmakers are showing so what can you do?

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
24/03/2010	Aston Villa	Sunderland	70%	19%	11%
24/03/2010	Manchester City	Everton	41%	30%	29%
24/03/2010	Portsmouth	Chelsea	9%	17%	74%
27/03/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Birmingham City	47%	29%	24%
27/03/2010	Birmingham City	Arsenal	14%	22%	64%
27/03/2010	Chelsea	Aston Villa	72%	18%	10%
27/03/2010	Hull City	Fulham	26%	29%	44%
27/03/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Portsmouth	72%	18%	10%
27/03/2010	West Ham United	Stoke City	45%	29%	25%
27/03/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Everton	20%	27%	53%
27/03/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Manchester United	9%	17%	74%
27/03/2010	Burnley	Blackburn Rovers	31%	30%	38%
28/03/2010	Liverpool	Sunderland	81%	13%	6%
29/03/2010	Manchester City	Wigan Athletic	68%	20%	12%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 30 Predictions

Last week we tipped 7 from 11 results correct, but despite the better than expected return we drop slightly to 574th place overall on the footytips ladder.

This week sees another 11 games with West Ham and Wolverhampton playing a catch-up game mid week.  Should I remember beforehandthen I'll update the predictions for this game after the weekend.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
20/03/2010	Aston Villa	Wolverhampton Wanderers	74%	17%	9%
20/03/2010	Everton	Bolton Wanderers	70%	19%	11%
20/03/2010	Portsmouth	Hull City	54%	27%	20%
20/03/2010	Stoke City	Tottenham Hotspur	28%	30%	42%
20/03/2010	Sunderland	Birmingham City	39%	30%	31%
20/03/2010	Wigan Athletic	Burnley	51%	28%	22%
20/03/2010	Arsenal	West Ham United	81%	13%	6%
21/03/2010	Manchester United	Liverpool	58%	25%	17%
21/03/2010	Fulham	Manchester City	37%	30%	33%
21/03/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Chelsea	11%	20%	69%
23/03/2010	West Ham United	Wolverhampton Wanderers	56%	26%	18%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 29 Predictions

We went worse than expected last week, only getting 4 of the 8 results correct and slipping to about 500th on the footytips ladder.

This week sees 11 games, with Wigan and Aston Villa playing a catch-up game mid-week.  I'll update the probs for this game after the weekend matches.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
13/02/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Blackburn Rovers	63%	23%	14%
13/02/2010	Birmingham City	Everton	27%	30%	43%
13/02/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Wigan Athletic	46%	29%	25%
13/02/2010	Burnley	Wolverhampton Wanderers	44%	30%	27%
13/02/2010	Chelsea	West Ham United	84%	11%	5%
13/02/2010	Stoke City	Aston Villa	27%	30%	44%
13/02/2010	Hull City	Arsenal	9%	16%	75%
14/02/2010	Manchester United	Fulham	81%	13%	6%
14/02/2010	Sunderland	Manchester City	26%	29%	45%
15/02/2010	Liverpool	Portsmouth	82%	12%	6%
16/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Aston Villa	22%	28%	50%