Friday, October 29, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 10 Predictions

Last week was more or less and average week, getting 6 or the 10 tips correct.  As it stood the suggested bets of Chelsea and Liverpool both won, I should have stuck by the model it seems.

No surprises this week, it appears a pretty obvious round for tipping.  A few bets have been thrown up though - namely on Aston Villa, Everton, Fulham, and Manchester United.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T
Arsenal West Ham United82%12%6%
Aston Villa Birmingham City62%23% 14%
Blackburn Rovers Chelsea12%21%67%
Blackpool West Bromwich Albion39%31% 31%
Bolton Wanderers Liverpool21%28%51%
Everton Stoke City67%21%12%
Fulham Wigan Athletic59%25%16%
Manchester United Tottenham Hotspur73%18% 10%
Newcastle United Sunderland44%30%26%
Wolverhampton Wanderers Manchester City22%28% 49%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 12 Predictions

In a shortened round we tipped 2 for 4 game, and held our position in the top 3% on footytips.

This week we're again tipping all home teams in an extended round of 7 games, although I've had to make some minor adjustments to the model given that two teams are hosting matches on neutral ground.  So Central Coast at Sydney and Newcastle at Port Macquarie I'm treating as not quite a home team, but definitely not away - since they're expected to have the bulk of the crowd behind them and not have to travel as far as their opponents. 

On the betting front we'll likely be having bets on Victory, Sydney FC and North Queensland.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
Melbourne VictoryAdelaide United Etihad Stadium50%25% 26%
Central Coast MarinersPerth Glory Sydney Football Stadium43% 26%31%
Sydney FCQueensland Roar Sydney Football Stadium47% 25%28%
Newcastle JetsMelbourne Heart Port Macquarie38% 26%35%
North QueenslandGold Coast Dairy Farmers Stadium42% 26%32%
New ZealandQueensland Roar Westpac Stadium38%26% 35%
Perth GloryMelbourne Heart nib Stadium45%26% 29%

Friday, October 22, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 9 Predictions

Last week we got 5 of the results correct, the 5 we missed all being draws.  So even though we lost one on Manchetser United's draw, we managed to tip everton at home against a flatering Liverpool.  We managed to place in the top 8% for the week and 10% overall on footytips.

No real surprises this week - I've tipped Arsernal away to Manchester City in what should eb the match of the round.  A couple of small bets on Chelsea and Liverpool which I might leave alone, due to the small odds in Chelsea's game and the undertainty around Liverpool.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T
Birmingham City Blackpool51%28%21%
Chelsea Wolverhampton Wanderers90%7% 3%
Liverpool Blackburn Rovers68%20% 12%
Manchester City Arsenal34%31%36%
Stoke City Manchester United12%21% 67%
Sunderland Aston Villa31%31%39%
Tottenham Hotspur Everton44%30%26%
West Bromwich Albion Fulham42%30%28%
West Ham United Newcastle United47%29% 24%
Wigan Athletic Bolton Wanderers39%30% 31%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 11 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, getting 3 results correct - good enough to be in the top 4% for the week and top 3% overall on footytips.  On the betting we broke even, collecting 2 out of 4 bets.

This week's round is back to 5 games, although the 5th game is on a Wednesday.  As usual we tip all home teams - if it ain't broke...

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
Adelaide UnitedNew Zealand Hindmarsh Stadium50% 25%25%
Melbourne HeartGold CoastAAMI Park 44%26% 30%
Queensland RoarMelbourne Victory Suncorp Stadium41%26% 33%
Perth GlorySydney FCnib Stadium 43%26% 31%
Newcastle JetsNorth Queensland EnergyAustralia Stadium44% 26%30%

Friday, October 15, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 8 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, tipping 6 winners - missing out on the 3 draws and Liverpool's shock loss at home to Blackpool.  Against a footytips average of 4.3 this was good enough for the top 4% of the week.  Unfortunately Liverpool's loss hurt us in the hip pocket as well, though wins to Man City and Chelsea went some way to minimize the damage.

 No real surprises this week, or bets either - except I rate Manchester United a lot better than the bookies do (even though they're only offering $1.30) - so a decent bet on them which should hopefully hold up.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T2
Arsenal Birmingham City79%14%7%
Aston Villa Chelsea18%26%57%
Blackburn Rovers Sunderland53%27%20%
Blackpool Manchester City23%28%49%
Bolton Wanderers Stoke City43%30%27%
EvertonLiverpool 39%30%31%
Fulham Tottenham Hotspur34%31% 36%
Manchester United West Bromwich Albion86%10% 4%
Newcastle United Wigan Athletic53%27%20%
Wolverhampton Wanderers West Ham United43%30%27%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 10 Predictions

We only managed to tip 2 for the last round, yet strangely enough that was good enough for the top 19% for the week on footytips and means we're still in the top 5% overall.  Our switch to the "away" team for the first time this year proved a hex as Melbourne Heart beat Melbourne victory in the first ever true local derby of the A-League.

No doubt spurned by straying outside the line, we go back to tipping all home teams this week.   We're also betting quite a few games as well, with wagers on North Queensland as always, Victory, Newcastle and the Gold Coast.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
North QueenslandPerth Glory Dairy Farmers Stadium42% 26%32%
Melbourne VictorySydney FCEtihad Stadium 46%26% 28%
Queensland RoarNewcastle JetsSuncorp Stadium 49%25% 26%
New ZealandMelbourne HeartWestpac Stadium 40%26% 34%
Gold CoastAdelaide UnitedSkilled Park 46%26% 29%
Queensland RoarCentral Coast Mariners Suncorp Stadium43% 26%31%

Friday, October 1, 2010

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 7 Predictions

Well, last week was officially the worst week I've had since I started tipping the EPL - managing only 1 from 10 tips correct. When Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool all fail to win then you know you're in trouble.  Still, the average on footytips was only 1.6 so it wasn't a complete disaster.

No real surprises this week, all the top teams look to have easy games so with any luck things return to normal this week.

Team 1Team 2 Pr T1Pr DrawPr T2
Birmingham City Everton28%30%42%
ChelseaArsenal 61%24%15%
Liverpool Blackpool80%14%7%
Manchester City Newcastle United69%20% 11%
Stoke City Blackburn Rovers42%30% 28%
Sunderland Manchester United11%19% 70%
Tottenham Hotspur Aston Villa48%29%23%
West Bromwich Albion Bolton Wanderers48%29% 24%
West Ham United Fulham38%31%31%
Wigan Athletic Wolverhampton Wanderers42%30% 28%

A-League 2010-11 Season - Week 9 Predictions

Last week got off to a flyer, tipping the first 3 results correct, then we missed the following 3 due to them being draws.  Small bets on Newcastle and North Queensland failed to get up, but we're still well up for the season so nothing to worry about there.

This round goes back to 5 games, with the Melbourne derby being pushed back a week due to the AFL grand final replay.  This games marks the first game this year I've tipped an away side, although only on a technicality as it's Heart's home game, and we're tipping Victory.

Team 1Team 2 VenuePr T1Pr Draw Pr T
Gold CoastNew ZealandSkilled Park 50%25% 25%
Central Coast MarinersNorth Queensland Bluetongue Stadium49% 25%26%
Perth GloryQueensland Roar nib Stadium44%26% 30%
Sydney FCAdelaide United Sydney Football Stadium48% 25%27%
Melbourne HeartMelbourne Victory AAMI Park32%26% 41%