Friday, February 26, 2010

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 27 Predictions

Last week we tipped as expected, getting 7 of the 12 results correct, and drop slightly on the footytips ladder to 420th overall. 

This week saw a mid-week game which Manchester United won easily as expected, and 8 games over the weekend.  The only real surprise being how high we rate Chelsea over Man City, though the bookmakers have priced them pretty close to how I rate them.  Also Fulham I've tipped over Sunderland, who are well favoured with the bookies.

DateHome Team Away TeamPr HomePr Draw Pr Away
23/02/2010 Manchester UnitedWest Ham United 83%11%5%
27/02/2010 Birmingham CityWigan Athletic 52%27%21%
27/02/2010 Bolton Wanderers Wolverhampton Wanderers50%28% 22%
27/02/2010 BurnleyPortsmouth41% 30%29%
27/02/2010 ChelseaManchester City 78%15%7%
27/02/2010 Stoke CityArsenal15% 24%61%
28/02/2010 LiverpoolBlackburn Rovers 78%15%7%
28/02/2010 SunderlandFulham31% 30%38%
28/02/2010 Tottenham HotspurEverton 43%30%28%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 3 Predictions

Not a great week last week, tipping 4 of the 7 results correctly though hopefully a lot of that is down to early season jitters - given a few rounds the ratings of teams should smooth out.

This week we tip all bar one of the bookie favourites, with the model going for the Blues away to Qld despite being slight outsiders.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
26/02/2010CrusadersSharks 69%28%
27/02/2010StormersBrumbies 58%39%
27/02/2010HurricanesLions 93%6%
27/02/2010RedsBlues 36%61%
27/02/2010W ForceChiefs 37%59%
28/02/2010CheetahsHighlanders 49%48%
28/02/2010BullsWaratahs 70%27%

Friday, February 19, 2010

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 2 Predictions

A great start to the season as we managed to get 6 of the 7 result correct - the one we missed ended up losing by a solitary point.

This week is a bit of a mixed bag - a couple of games we've gone against the bookies prices, espicially the last game between the Stormers and Waratahs.  The Waratchs we rated a much better team, however the Stormers have apparently picked up some of the better rugby players going around, so the model will obviously need to catch up with this if their results go as expected.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
19/02/2009HighlandersBlues 46%51%
19/02/2009RedsCrusaders 13%86%
20/02/2009SharksCheetahs 91%8%
20/02/2009LionsChiefs 20%78%
20/02/2009HurricanesW Force 83%15%
21/02/2009BullsBrumbies 74%24%
21/02/2009StormersWaratahs 43%53%

Thursday, February 18, 2010

A-League 2009/10 Season - Finals Week 1 Predictions

Another great week for tipping in the A-League, again getting 4 of the 5 results correct.  We missed out on tipping the Newcastle vs Adelaide game, but we rated Adelaide above the odds so the bet we had on them more than makes up for missing the tip.

So with that we finish the regular season in 81st place overall on footytips, out of the 31,000+ A-Aleague tippers, managing to get just over 49% of the tips correct - which highlights how I've said all along how hard it is to tip correct results, but at least we're doing it better than the vast majority of other tippers.

So onwards to the finals.  As I mentioend in the previous A-League post, the model is built only on regular season games - as such it won't take into account any nuances that occur in finals matches (particularly those played over 2 legs), and in any case they will only predict the result at the end of 90 minutes - not at teh end of extra time.

DateTeam 1 Team 2VenuePr T1 Pr DrawPr T2
16/02/2010 Melbourne Victory Sydney FC Etihad Stadium 47% 26% 28%
20/02/2010 Gold Coast Newcastle Jets Skilled Park 48% 25% 27%
21/02/2010 New Zealand Perth Glory Westpac Stadium 42% 26% 31%

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 26 Predictions

EDIT - weekend matches now updated after mid-week games

Last week we tipped slightly worse than expected, getting 5 of the 10 results correct - yet we moved up slightly to 387th overall on footytips.

this weeks sees 12 games overall, with a couple of mid-week fixtures scheduled for games postponed earlier in the season - we'll update the weekend predictions after the mid-week games have been played.

DateHome Team Away TeamPr HomePr Draw Pr Away
16/02/2010 Stoke CityManchester City 32%30%37%
17/02/2010 Wigan AthleticBolton Wanderers 45%29%26%
20/02/2010 ArsenalSunderland85% 11%5%
20/02/2010 EvertonManchester United 21%27%52%
20/02/2010 PortsmouthStoke City 41%30%29%
20/02/2010 West Ham UnitedHull City 60%24%16%
20/02/2010 Wolverhampton WanderersChelsea 8%15%78%
21/02/2010 Blackburn RoversBolton Wanderers 50%28%22%
21/02/2010 Aston VillaBurnley74% 17%9%
21/02/2010 FulhamBirmingham City 53%27%20%
21/02/2010 Manchester CityLiverpool 25%29%46%
21/02/2010 Wigan AthleticTottenham Hotspur 26%29%45%

Friday, February 12, 2010

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 26 Predictions

Another great week on the A-League - managing to get 4 of the 5 results correct and move up to 149th place overall on footytips. Also a great week for the betting, getting big results on Central Coast, Adelaide and Wellington.

Hopefully a good week this week will see us finish the regular season in the top 100 overall out of 31,000+ tippers, a pretty good result for league that is notoriously hard to predict.

DateTeam 1 Team 2VenuePr T1 Pr DrawPr T2
12/02/2010New Zealand Central Coast MarinersWestpac Stadium 41%27% 33%
12/02/2010Newcastle Jets Adelaide UnitedEnergyAustralia Stadium 42%26% 31%
13/02/2010Perth Glory Queensland RoarMembers Equity Stadium 38%27% 36%
13/02/2010North Queensland Gold CoastDairy Farmers Stadium37% 27%36%
14/02/2010Sydney FC Melbourne VictorySydney Football Stadium 37%27% 36%

I'll still be providing tips through the finals but with the caveat that my model is only built on games from the regular season - and as such are only useful in predicting the result at the end of 90 minutes.

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 1 Predictions

The Super 14 season starts tonight, so time to start publishing my predictions.  Last year I posted some analysis here on how well the model had gone, and also left some suggestions as too how I'd update the model.  Well it's fair to say it was a productive summer, because I haven't touched the model since then.

Still, the model as it was then seemed to be firing off some very nice profits, keeping two things in mind.  Firstly, betting on away teams turned out more profitable then betting on home teams, and secondly it seemed to take a couple of weeks for the model to find its feet before consistent profits started.

On that last point, a couple of off-season changes won't automatically be reflected in the model, especially for these Round 1 predictions.  The Western Force for example have been heavily hit by injuries and players leaving, so likely their odds below aren't a true reflection of their ability just yet.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
12/02/2010Blues Hurricanes46%50%
12/02/2010W Force Brumbies49%47%
13/02/2010Cheetahs Bulls20%78%
13/02/2010Crusaders Highlanders89%10%
13/02/2010Reds Waratahs22%76%
14/02/2010Lions Stormers36%61%
14/02/2010Sharks Chiefs65%33%

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 25 Predictions

Apologies for missing the overnight games, I had no idea they were on til late at night.  For the record we had 2 of the overnight games tipped correctly.

Last week we tipped pretty much on average, getting 6 of the 11 games correct and holding level on footytips.

The remaining games this week seem fairly straightforward - perhaps surprising that everton are rated as high as they are - we'll soon find out.

DateHome Team Away TeamPr HomePr Draw Pr Away
9/02/2010 Manchester CityBolton Wanderers 63%23%14%
9/02/2010Fulham Burnley62%23%15%
9/02/2010 PortsmouthSunderland 48%28%23%
9/02/2010 Wigan AthleticStoke City 41%30%29%
10/02/2010 ArsenalLiverpool46% 29%25%
10/02/2010 West Ham UnitedBirmingham City 45%29%25%
10/02/2010 Wolverhampton Wanderers Tottenham Hotspur22%28%51%
10/02/2010 Aston VillaManchester United 21%27%52%
10/02/2010 Blackburn RoversHull City 58%25%17%
10/02/2010 EvertonChelsea19% 26%55%

Friday, February 5, 2010

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 25 Predictions

An extremely good week last week in the A-League - tipping 4 of the 5 results correctly and only narrowly missing out on a clean-sweep as we'd tipped Melbourne instead of North Queensland by the narrowest or margins.  The result sees us move from 387th to 216th on the overall ladder on footytips.

This week we've gone with all the home teams, and also bet on every game for the first time this year - the teams backed are North Queensland, Central Coast, Adelaide, Perth and Wellington. 

DateTeam 1 Team 2VenuePr T1 Pr DrawPr T2
5/02/2010Melbourne Victory North QueenslandEtihad Stadium54% 24%22%
6/02/2010 Central Coast MarinersNewcastle Jets Bluetongue Stadium40% 27%33%
6/02/2010Adelaide United Queensland RoarHindmarsh Stadium38% 27%35%
7/02/2010Sydney FC Perth GloryParramatta Stadium50% 25%25%
7/02/2010Gold Coast New ZealandSkilled Park52% 24%24%

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 24 Predictions

A pretty poor round, only managing to get 4 of the 11 results correct and sliding to 373rd place on footytips.  For some reason the Hull - Chelsea Tuesday game took over the place of the originally scheduled West Ham - Wolverhampton game - no great concern though as it ended in a draw so we wouldn't have got that tip regardless.

This week sees another 11 games played starting with Fulham against Pompey overnight.  Hopefully a week to bounce back and make up for some of the lost ground.

DateHome Team Away TeamPr HomePr Draw Pr Away
3/02/2010Fulham Portsmouth56%26%18%
6/02/2010 Bolton WanderersFulham 37%30%33%
6/02/2010 BurnleyWest Ham United 34%31%35%
6/02/2010 Hull CityManchester City 22%28%51%
6/02/2010 LiverpoolEverton64% 22%14%
6/02/2010 Manchester UnitedPortsmouth 88%8%4%
6/02/2010 Stoke CityBlackburn Rovers 43%30%27%
6/02/2010 SunderlandWigan Athletic 44%30%27%
6/02/2010 Tottenham HotspurAston Villa 44%29%26%
7/02/2010 Birmingham City Wolverhampton Wanderers56%26% 18%
7/02/2010 ChelseaArsenal56% 26%18%