Friday, April 30, 2010

AFL 2010 Season - Round 6 Predictions

Well we finally sorted the kinks out in the model and tipped favourites in every game in Round 5, only to see half of them lose.  Still, as mentioned in last weeks post we had bets on Melbourne and Carlton who both won at generous odds.

This week sees us tipping all favourites again, except for Essendon over Hawthorn which again I'm comfortable to go with.  So it looks like we'll be betting on Essendon and Richmond, who we rate a lot better than their odds suggest.

Team 1Team 2 VenueProb 1Prob 2
Western BulldogsSt Kilda Telstra Dome59%39%
North MelbourneMelbourne Telstra Dome38%61%
AdelaidePort AdelaideAAMI Stadium 42%56%
EssendonHawthornMCG 51%47%
SydneyBrisbaneSCG 65%33%
GeelongRichmondSkilled Stadium 74%24%
CarltonCollingwoodMCG 31%67%
West CoastFremantleSubiaco 30%68%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 12 Predictions

A so-so week, getting 4 correct tips as well as the draw out of the 7 games played.

Again no big surprises this late in the season - though we do rate the Brumbies a fairly good chance to win in a game the bookies have as even money.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
30/04/2010Highlanders Waratahs27%71%
30/04/2010Stormers Crusaders49%48%
1/05/2010Hurricanes Chiefs71%26%
1/05/2010Brumbies Reds75%22%
1/05/2010Cheetahs Blues29%68%
1/05/2010Lions W Force39%58%
1/05/2010BullsSharks 68%29%

Friday, April 23, 2010

AFL 2010 Season - Round 5 Predictions

Another disastrous week last round, only getting 3 tips right again.  This has seen us revisit the model and tweak it's settings so that it's less dependant on the players selected and moreso on the overall team's form - this would have seen us land 7 tips last week instead of the 3, and 21 overall for the season so far - so I'm happy to go with that.

And thankfully this week we're tipping all the favourites.  We'll probably have a couple of small bets on Melbourne and Carlton which I'm happy enough with - otherwise no surprises at all.

Team 1Team 2 VenueProb 1Prob 2
Western BulldogsAdelaide Telstra Dome80%19%
SydneyWest CoastSCG 84%16%
MelbourneBrisbaneMCG 41%57%
Port AdelaideSt KildaAAMI Stadium 29%69%
CollingwoodEssendonMCG 66%32%
HawthornNorth Melbourne Aurora Stadium69%29%
FremantleRichmondSubiaco 80%19%
CarltonGeelongMCG 34%65%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 11 Predictions

Another relatively poor week last week, only managing to get 3 of the matches right, and for the first time in quite a while we lost on the betting as well.

No great surprises this week as we return to a 7 game round- we're likely to have a couple of bets with the Stormers and Lions with the line.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
23/04/2010Chiefs Cheetahs87%12%
23/04/2010Reds Stormers35%62%
23/04/2010W Force Crusaders19%79%
24/04/2010Highlanders Hurricanes27%70%
24/04/2010Waratahs Brumbies69%29%
24/04/2010BullsLions 95%5%
24/04/2010Sharks Blues71%26%

Friday, April 16, 2010

AFL 2010 Season - Round 4 Predictions

Last week was a stinker, only getting 3 games right in the AFL which sees us now languishing in the bottom 25% in most tipping comps. 

This week certainly doesn't do much for my confidence, with the model tipping outsiders in Essendon, North Melbourne and richmond, and also tipping Adelaide by a huge margin in a game the bookies have 50/50.  Still, massive profits were made last year on rounds like this, so let's hope nothing as changed since then!

Team 1Team 2 VenueProb 1Prob 2
West CoastEssendonSubiaco 47%51%
North MelbourneSydneyTelstra Dome 57%42%
AdelaideCarltonAAMI Stadium 86%14%
CollingwoodHawthornMCG 60%38%
BrisbaneWestern BulldogsGabba 27%71%
RichmondMelbourneMCG 51%48%
GeelongPort Adelaide Skilled Stadium96%3%
St KildaFremantleTelstra Dome 72%27%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 10 Predictions

A pretty ordinary week tipping wise last week in the Super 14’s last week, only getting 3 of the 6 results correct – how we did clean up by back 4 of the away teams with the line, with 3 of those games getting up.

No real surprises this week, the first two games are a little bit out from the bookies but otherwise all looks well.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
16/04/2010Chiefs Stormers62%35%
16/04/2010Brumbies Hurricanes56%41%
17/04/2010Blues W Force76%21%
17/04/2010Crusaders Cheetahs95%5%
17/04/2010RedsBulls 26%72%
17/04/2010Lions Sharks16%82%

Friday, April 9, 2010

AFL 2010 Season - Round 3 Predictions

Another pretty good week for round 2 in the AFl, with the model getting 6 of the games right and sitting on 12 tips for the season.

This week statrs off inetresting enough, with the model tipping Collingwood in a close game over St Kilda.  Other than that it's pretty much as expected.

Team 1Team 2 VenueProb 1Prob 2
St KildaCollingwoodTelstra Dome 39%59%
North MelbourneWest Coast Telstra Dome65%33%
Port AdelaideBrisbaneAAMI Stadium 53%45%
SydneyRichmondSCG 78%20%
CarltonEssendonMCG 73%26%
MelbourneAdelaideMCG 12%87%
Western BulldogsHawthornMCG 65%33%
FremantleGeelongSubiaco 27%71%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 9 Predictions

Another average week last week, tipping 4 of the 6 results correct - footytips counts the draw as a win so who are we to argue.

This week we tip with all the bookies favourites so no real suprises here.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
9/04/2010ChiefsBulls 52%45%
9/04/2010Highlanders W Force62%35%
9/04/2010Blues Stormers58%39%
10/04/2010Crusaders Waratahs73%25%
10/04/2010Brumbies Cheetahs87%12%
10/04/2010LionsReds 41%56%

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 8 Predictions

An OK week last week in Super 14s, getting 4 of the 6 results correct. 

this week there are 3 close encounters and 3 seemingly clear-cut games - with any luck the close games will go our way and the one-sided games will go as expected.

DateHome TeamAway TeamHome ProbAway Prob
2/04/2010W ForceStormers35%62%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 2 Predictions

Not a bad week to start off the AFL season, getting 6 of 8 tips correct.

A couple of interesting selections at this stage - Port over West Coast at Subiaco, and Hawthorn in a tight one over Geelong.  Keep in mond the final teams for the last 4 matches haven't been announced yet, so these predictions will change slightly when they are.

Team 1Team 2VenueProb 1Prob 2
St KildaNorth MelbourneTelstra Dome70%28%
West CoastPort AdelaideSubiaco48%51%
AdelaideSydneyAAMI Stadium84%15%
EssendonFremantleTelstra Dome59%40%
RichmondWestern BulldogsMCG12%87%