Saturday, June 26, 2010

World Cup Match Predictions - Round of 16

Now half the teams have been eliminated, and we're down to the knockout stages.  As expected the 3rd round of games wasn't as profitable as the previous rounds - although they still broke even, and indeed if you were smart and left out dubious games like Mexico vs Uruguay, France vs South Africa and Portugal vs Brazil where the results didn't affect who went through, then you woudl have been well in front again.

The predictions below are for the games in the round of 16 - and keep in mind these predictions are for the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation time - pretty much all bookmakers will offer this market.

StageTeam 1 Team 2Pr Team 1Pr Draw Pr Team 2
Round of 16UruguayKorea Republic 53%29% 18%
Round of 16MexicoArgentina 22%32% 46%
Round of 16USAGhana 43%33% 24%
Round of 16EnglandGermany 35%34% 31%
Round of 16NetherlandsSlovakia 82%13% 5%
Round of 16JapanParaguay 30%34% 36%
Round of 16BrazilChile 61%26% 14%
Round of 16PortugalSpain 14%26% 59%

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

World Cup Match Predictions - Round 3

Well the model has gone fantastically  so far in the World Cup - making 54% ROI on the first 32 games played, and that includes backing favourites, long-shots and the draw as well.  The graph below shows how the profits have kept coming in betting to a constant kelly bank

Below are the predictions for the round 3 games of the World Cup - though I would advise to be extremely cautious bettign on any of these games given the stage of the tournament.  Some teams are already eliminated and will liekly play some 2nd-string players.  Some teams are assured of going through and will liekly rest key players.  And then there's the case of Group A where a draw between Mexico and Uruguay will see them both through at the expense of France and hosts South Africa -and to make thing even more interesting a win by Mexico would see them top the group and avoid Argentina in the round of 16 - so really who knows what will happen tonight.

StageTeam 1Team 2 Pr Team 1Pr DrawPr Team 2
GroupMexicoUruguay40% 33%27%
GroupFranceSouth Africa 39%33% 28%
GroupNigeriaKorea Republic 22%32% 46%
GroupGreeceArgentina 11%22% 67%
GroupSlovenia England11%22%67%
GroupUSA Algeria65%24%12%
GroupGhana Germany14%26%59%
GroupAustralia Serbia23%32%45%
GroupSlovakia Italy10%21%70%
GroupParaguay New Zealand63%24%12%
GroupDenmark Japan41%33%26%
GroupCameroon Netherlands5%12%84%
GroupPortugal Brazil11%22%67%
GroupKorea DPR Côte d'Ivoire12%23%65%
GroupChile Spain18%29%52%
Group SwitzerlandHonduras 46%32%22%

Friday, June 18, 2010

World Cup Tournament Predictions

As with the match predictions, these are better late than never.

Below I present the predictions of every team to make every stage of the World Cup.  I simulate the tournament 100,000 times, with each team's rating after every simulated match going up or down depending on the result of that game - hence if a minnow happens to progress deeply into the tournament their rating will have gone up accordingly.

Shown below is the probability of every team to top their group, qualify for the round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, final, and win the World Cup.  I'll update these as often as I remember to, but please note when I have said these predictions were last updated.

Current Prior to games on Monday 5th July

Group ATop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Mexico0.0%100.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
France0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Uruguay100.0% 100.0%100.0%100.0%22.7% 28.1%8.8%
South Africa0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Group BTop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Argentina100.0% 100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Korea Republic0.0% 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Greece0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Nigeria0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Group CTop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
England0.0%100.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
USA100.0%100.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slovenia0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Algeria0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Group DTop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Germany100.0% 100.0%100.0%100.0%33.8% 44.9%23.6%
Serbia0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Australia0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Ghana0.0%100.0% 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Group ETop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Netherlands100.0% 100.0%100.0%100.0%14.5% 71.9%36.7%
Denmark0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Japan0.0%100.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cameroon0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Group FTop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Italy0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Paraguay100.0% 100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Slovakia0.0% 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
New Zealand0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Group GTop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Brazil100.0% 100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Portugal0.0% 100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Côte d'Ivoire0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Korea DPR0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Group HTop GroupMake Knockout Stage Make Quarter FinalsMake Semi FinalsWin 3rd Place Make FinalWin Final
Spain100.0%100.0% 100.0%100.0%29.1%55.1% 30.9%
Chile0.0%100.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Switzerland0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%
Honduras0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

World Cup Match Predictions

A little late I'll admit, but better late than never.  I'd recently gone over how my predictions for the World Cup matches would have gone and was blown away - I'd be in front to the tune of 80% ROI so far - had I bet from the start.  Sadly I only started better as of last night - but still great wins to Greece over Nigeria and Mexico over France have shown some material profit.  Also previously wins to South Korea over Greece, Slovenia over Algeria, Japan over Cameroon and New Zealand's opening draw have seen the profitability of the model sky-rocket.

As they say though, talk is cheap.  So without further ado here are my predictions for the group matches of the world cup.  The matches in yellow below will changes slightly depending on the results of each team's previous game - and this will be updated in time.

StageTeam 1Team 2 Pr Team 1Pr DrawPr Team 2
GroupSouth AfricaMexico 23%32% 45%
GroupUruguayFrance 31%34% 35%
GroupArgentinaNigeria 64%24% 12%
GroupKorea RepublicGreece 49%31% 20%
GroupEnglandUSA 58%27% 15%
GroupAlgeriaSlovenia 17%28% 55%
GroupGermanyAustralia 65%23% 12%
GroupSerbiaGhana 39%33% 27%
GroupNetherlandsDenmark 74%18% 8%
GroupJapanCameroon 39%33% 28%
GroupItalyParaguay 52%30% 18%
GroupNew ZealandSlovakia23%32% 45%
GroupCôte d'IvoirePortugal 23%32% 45%
GroupBrazilKorea DPR 93%5% 2%
GroupHondurasChile 16%28% 57%
GroupSpainSwitzerland 79%15% 6%
GroupSouth AfricaUruguay 28%34% 38%
GroupFranceMexico 29%34% 37%
GroupGreeceNigeria 31%34% 36%
GroupArgentinaKorea Republic 50%30% 19%
GroupGermanySerbia 59%27% 15%
GroupSloveniaUSA 21%31% 48%
GroupEnglandAlgeria 86%10% 4%
GroupGhanaAustralia 33%34% 33%
GroupNetherlandsJapan 77%16% 7%
GroupCameroonDenmark 24%33% 43%
GroupSlovakiaParaguay 20%30% 50%
GroupItalyNew Zealand 79%15% 6%
GroupBrazilCôte d'Ivoire 78%16% 6%
GroupPortugalKorea DPR 75%18% 8%
GroupChileSwitzerland 46%32% 22%
GroupSpainHonduras 79%15% 6%
GroupFranceSouth Africa 45%32% 23%
GroupNigeriaKorea Republic 22%32% 46%
GroupGreeceArgentina 11%23% 67%
GroupSloveniaEngland 9%20% 72%
GroupUSAAlgeria 69%21% 10%
GroupGhanaGermany 11%23% 65%
GroupAustraliaSerbia 28%33% 39%
GroupSlovakiaItaly 10%21% 69%
GroupParaguayNew Zealand 62%25% 13%
GroupDenmarkJapan 37%34% 29%
GroupCameroonNetherlands 5%14% 81%
GroupPortugalBrazil 10%22% 68%
GroupKorea DPRCôte d'Ivoire 12%24% 64%
GroupChileSpain 17%29% 54%
GroupSwitzerlandHonduras 48%31% 21%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 13 Predictions

A great week last week for the model.  It managed to tip 6 winners which isn't too bad - but it also turned a tasty profit which is all the better.  Great collects on Richmond, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne (who returned half of the 5.50 odds outlaid) saw a great return for the week.

The round sees the split round, so at the time of writing the predictions below for the first 5 games are based on team form and the players selected, while the last 3 games are based on team form alone and will be updated next week when those squads are announced.

NOTE:  The predictions for the second half of the split round are now updated to include the player's picked.

Team 1Team 2 VenueProb 1Prob 2
HawthornEssendonMCG 51%48%
CarltonFremantleTelstra Dome 54%45%
BrisbaneRichmondGabba 73%25%
North MelbournePort Adelaide Telstra Dome80%19%
West CoastWestern BulldogsSubiaco 18%81%
St KildaGeelongMCG 46%52%
SydneyCollingwoodANZ Stadium 51%45%
AdelaideMelbourneAAMI Stadium 41%58%

Friday, June 4, 2010

AFL 2010 Season - Round 11 Predictions

Last week the model lobbed with 5 winners, as mopst other people would have received as well given it was a week of clear favourites. The good news though is that we managed to get 5 from 5 bets home - including wins on outsiders Essendon @ $3.50 and Brisbane @ $3.73.

This week we've thrown up some interesting picks - including tips on outsiders North Melbourne, Essendon and Western Bulldogs who we rate close to $1.20 chance to beat Collingwood - no doubt we'll see a big bet on them.

Team 1Team 2 VenueProb 1Prob 2
RichmondSt KildaTelstra Dome 20%79%
CarltonMelbourneMCG 54%44%
AdelaideFremantleAAMI Stadium 28%70%
North MelbourneBrisbane Telstra Dome52%47%
West CoastGeelongSubiaco 29%69%
SydneyEssendonSCG 46%52%
HawthornPort AdelaideMCG 81%18%
CollingwoodWestern Bulldogs Telstra Dome18%81%