World Cup Tournament Predictions

As with the match predictions, these are better late than never.

Below I present the predictions of every team to make every stage of the World Cup.  I simulate the tournament 100,000 times, with each team's rating after every simulated match going up or down depending on the result of that game - hence if a minnow happens to progress deeply into the tournament their rating will have gone up accordingly.

Shown below is the probability of every team to top their group, qualify for the round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, final, and win the World Cup.  I'll update these as often as I remember to, but please note when I have said these predictions were last updated.

Current Prior to games on Monday 5th July

Group A	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Mexico	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
France	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Uruguay	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	22.7%	28.1%	8.8%
South Africa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group B	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Argentina	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Korea Republic	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Greece	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Nigeria	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group C	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
England	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
USA	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Slovenia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Algeria	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group D	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Germany	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	33.8%	44.9%	23.6%
Serbia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Australia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Ghana	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group E	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Netherlands	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	14.5%	71.9%	36.7%
Denmark	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Japan	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Cameroon	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group F	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Italy	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Paraguay	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Slovakia	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
New Zealand	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group G	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Brazil	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Portugal	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Côte d'Ivoire	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Korea DPR	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group H	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Spain	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	29.1%	55.1%	30.9%
Chile	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Switzerland	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Honduras	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%