Tuesday, June 22, 2010

World Cup Match Predictions - Round 3

Well the model has gone fantastically  so far in the World Cup - making 54% ROI on the first 32 games played, and that includes backing favourites, long-shots and the draw as well.  The graph below shows how the profits have kept coming in betting to a constant kelly bank



Below are the predictions for the round 3 games of the World Cup - though I would advise to be extremely cautious bettign on any of these games given the stage of the tournament.  Some teams are already eliminated and will liekly play some 2nd-string players.  Some teams are assured of going through and will liekly rest key players.  And then there's the case of Group A where a draw between Mexico and Uruguay will see them both through at the expense of France and hosts South Africa -and to make thing even more interesting a win by Mexico would see them top the group and avoid Argentina in the round of 16 - so really who knows what will happen tonight.

StageTeam 1Team 2 Pr Team 1Pr DrawPr Team 2
GroupMexicoUruguay40% 33%27%
GroupFranceSouth Africa 39%33% 28%
GroupNigeriaKorea Republic 22%32% 46%
GroupGreeceArgentina 11%22% 67%
GroupSlovenia England11%22%67%
GroupUSA Algeria65%24%12%
GroupGhana Germany14%26%59%
GroupAustralia Serbia23%32%45%
GroupSlovakia Italy10%21%70%
GroupParaguay New Zealand63%24%12%
GroupDenmark Japan41%33%26%
GroupCameroon Netherlands5%12%84%
GroupPortugal Brazil11%22%67%
GroupKorea DPR C├┤te d'Ivoire12%23%65%
GroupChile Spain18%29%52%
Group SwitzerlandHonduras 46%32%22%

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