Saturday, July 10, 2010

World Cup Match Predictions - Final and 3rd-Place Playoff

Here are the predictions for the final of the World Cup, along with the 3rd-place playoff.

The model has gone fanatstically well throughout the World Cup - making around 30% ROI for the tournament, and even more if you were smart about which of the group games to bet on.

Probably not a lot of action betting-wise.  The Dutch are slight value as they have been throughout the tournament, so you could do a lot worse then back them to win in the 90 minutes.

StageTeam 1 Team 2Pr Team 1Pr Draw Pr Team 2
FinalNetherlands Spain31.7%33.9%34.5%
3rd PlaceUruguayGermany 18.3%29.6%52.1%

Monday, July 5, 2010

World Cup Match Predictions - Semi Finals

The Quarter-finals were another great result for the model - with collects on the wins by Germany, Netherlands and Spain.

So down to the last 4 now, and for the most part the model is in line with the bookmakers.  There may be an opportunity for a small bet on the draw in the Germany - Spain game, but you'll have to shop around to get good odds.

As always remember these predictions are to the end of 90 minutes.

StageTeam 1 Team 2Pr Team 1Pr Draw Pr Team 2
Semi FinalsUruguay Netherlands14%26%59%
Semi FinalsGermanySpain 28%33%38%

Thursday, July 1, 2010

World Cup Match Predictions - Quarter Finals

Down to the last 8 of the World Cup now, and the soccer model shows no signs of slowing down. Big bets, abd big wins, on Spain and teh Netherlands enough to see the model win 26% ROI alone on the Round of 16 games.

Keep in mind the predictions below are for the result at the end of 90 minutes

StageTeam 1 Team 2Pr Team 1Pr Draw Pr Team 2
Quarter FinalsUruguayGhana 55%28% 16%
Quarter FinalsNetherlandsBrazil 26%33% 41%
Quarter FinalsArgentinaGermany 35%34% 31%
Quarter FinalsParaguaySpain 8%18% 74%