Friday, March 26, 2010

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 31 Predictions

Last week saw us tip 7 from 11 and move up to 457th place overall on the footytips ladder.

A mammoth week of games, we 4 games played yesterday morning andanother 10 before the week is out.  No major suprprises here, the only real eyebrow raiser is Aston villa being rated so poorly against Chelsea, but it seems to be in line with what the bookmakers are showing so what can you do?

DateHome Team Away TeamPr HomePr Draw Pr Away
24/03/2010 Aston VillaSunderland 70%19%11%
24/03/2010 Manchester CityEverton 41%30%29%
24/03/2010 PortsmouthChelsea9% 17%74%
27/03/2010 Blackburn RoversBirmingham City 47%29%24%
27/03/2010 Birmingham CityArsenal 14%22%64%
27/03/2010 ChelseaAston Villa72% 18%10%
27/03/2010 Hull CityFulham26% 29%44%
27/03/2010 Tottenham HotspurPortsmouth 72%18%10%
27/03/2010 West Ham UnitedStoke City 45%29%25%
27/03/2010 Wolverhampton WanderersEverton 20%27%53%
27/03/2010 Bolton Wanderers Manchester United9%17%74%
27/03/2010 BurnleyBlackburn Rovers 31%30%38%
28/03/2010 LiverpoolSunderland81% 13%6%
29/03/2010 Manchester CityWigan Athletic 68%20%12%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 7 Predictions

A great week last week in the Super 14s, we managed to tipp every game correctly and also made a couple of nice bets on the Hurricanes and Lions to beat the line.

This week we tip home teams in every game bar the last, so here's hoping the home ground advantage counts for something this round.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
26/03/2010Highlanders Lions75%23%
26/03/2010Brumbies Chiefs53%43%
26/03/2010Cheetahs Reds54%42%
27/03/2010Hurricanes Sharks61%36%
27/03/2010Waratahs Blues72%26%
27/03/2010W Force Bulls22%75%

Thursday, March 25, 2010

AFL 2010 Season - Round 1 Predictions

The 2010 AFL season proper gets underway today, so too my predictions for each game.  As the model is partly player based, and as only the Richmond vs Carlton teams have been named, I can only publish my predictions for this game at this stage - but as more teams get announced then I'll post the probs up here.

The model has tipped Carlton at a lot shorter price than the bookies have - the reason being that Richmond are playing 3 first-gamers, and the model just doesn't like this.  Even without these players it will still throw the game up as an 80 / 20 chance in Carlton's favour.

Now that teams have been named for Friday and Saturday's game I can release predictions for them - interesting that Geelong are rated shorter and Hawthorn even higher than the bookies odds, all down to the profile of players picked.  The Lions too are rated higher than the bookies so no doubt will be bet on.

A great start last night with Carlton easily account for Richmond, with an easy bet on them collecting.  Also we rated them a 30-point favourite so a bet on them to beat the line of 15.5 points at the start of the game made for another easy collect.

The teams for Sunday's games have now been released and the predictions are now up.  Interesting that it has tipped Collingwood over the Western Bulldogs, based on profile of players selected.  We're currently sitting on 5 from 5 tips so far so let's see if teh form continues.

With some late changes to Port Adelaide's side we now swing our tip over to North Melbourne - it's the cardinal rule of tipping not to change from the original selection and I've done it twice this round already - fingers crossed!!

Team 1Team 2 VenueProb 1Prob 2
RichmondCarltonMCG 13%86%
GeelongEssendonMCG 59%39%
MelbourneHawthornMCG 8%92%
SydneySt KildaANZ Stadium 36%63%
BrisbaneWest CoastGabba 84%15%
Port AdelaideNorth MelbourneAAMI 42%46%
Western BulldogsCollingwoodEtihad Stadium 45%53%
FremantleAdelaideSubiaco 35%64%

Saturday, March 20, 2010

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 30 Predictions

Last week we tipped 7 from 11 results correct, but despite the better than expected return we drop slightly to 574th place overall on the footytips ladder.

This week sees another 11 games with West Ham and Wolverhampton playing a catch-up game mid week.  Should I remember beforehandthen I'll update the predictions for this game after the weekend.

DateHome Team Away TeamPr HomePr Draw Pr Away
20/03/2010 Aston Villa Wolverhampton Wanderers74%17% 9%
20/03/2010 EvertonBolton Wanderers 70%19%11%
20/03/2010 PortsmouthHull City 54%27%20%
20/03/2010 Stoke CityTottenham Hotspur 28%30%42%
20/03/2010 SunderlandBirmingham City 39%30%31%
20/03/2010 Wigan AthleticBurnley 51%28%22%
20/03/2010 ArsenalWest Ham United 81%13%6%
21/03/2010 Manchester UnitedLiverpool 58%25%17%
21/03/2010 FulhamManchester City 37%30%33%
21/03/2010 Blackburn RoversChelsea 11%20%69%
23/03/2010 West Ham United Wolverhampton Wanderers56%26% 18%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Finals Week 4 Predictions - Grand Final

We managed to get the result correct in last week's Sydney - Wellington preliminary final, and the result saw us move up 1 spot to 46th overall on footytips.

So this week sees the grand final, and the 4th time in succession that Melbourne's opponent in the A-League happens to be Sydney, surely a record.  As expected we tip Melbourne due to the home-field advantage, but keep in mind these predictions are for the result at the end of 90 minutes.

DateTeam 1 Team 2VenuePr T1 Pr DrawPr T2
20/03/2010Melbourne Sydney FCEtihad Stadium46% 26%28%

Friday, March 19, 2010

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 6 Predictions

Not too bad week tipping wise last week, getting 4 of the 6 results correct - not so good on the betting front though with only 2 of the 5 line bets getting up.

So hopefully we'll go a bit better this week - most of the games appear quite one-sided.  A few bets on the line for the underdogs Hurricanes and Lions, here's hoping they don't get beaten by too much!

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
19/03/2010Blues Brumbies56%41%
19/03/2010Bulls Hurricanes70%27%
20/03/2010Crusaders Lions95%4%
20/03/2010Highlanders Sharks33%64%
20/03/2010W Force Waratahs31%66%
20/03/2010Stormers Cheetahs85%14%

Friday, March 12, 2010

A-League 2009/10 Season - Finals Week 3 Predictions

Last week we managed to get both results correct, thanks to Wellington winning in extra-time.  This result moves us up to 47th place overall on the footytips ladder.

So this week sees the preliminary final between Sydney and Wellington, the winner going through to Melbourne next week to play the Victory in the season decider.  Keep in mind that the predictions below are for the result at the end of 90 minutes.

DateTeam 1 Team 2VenuePr T1 Pr DrawPr T2
13/03/2010Sydney FC New ZealandSydney Football Stadium51% 25%25%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 29 Predictions

We went worse than expected last week, only getting 4 of the 8 results correct and slipping to about 500th on the footytips ladder.

This week sees 11 games, with Wigan and Aston Villa playing a catch-up game mid-week.  I'll update the probs for this game after the weekend matches.

DateHome Team Away TeamPr HomePr Draw Pr Away
13/02/2010 Tottenham Hotspur Blackburn Rovers63%23%14%
13/02/2010 Birmingham CityEverton 27%30%43%
13/02/2010 Bolton WanderersWigan Athletic 46%29%25%
13/02/2010 BurnleyWolverhampton Wanderers 44%30%27%
13/02/2010 ChelseaWest Ham United 84%11%5%
13/02/2010 Stoke CityAston Villa 27%30%44%
13/02/2010 Hull CityArsenal9% 16%75%
14/02/2010 Manchester UnitedFulham 81%13%6%
14/02/2010 SunderlandManchester City 26%29%45%
15/02/2010 LiverpoolPortsmouth82% 12%6%
16/02/2010 Wigan AthleticAston Villa 22%28%50%

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 5 Predictions

A decent week last week saw us get 5 of the 7 tips correct, and also good away bets on the line on the Lions and Sharks.  A couple of long shots managed to win in the Reds and Cheetahs, but these things are expected from time to time.

A lot of close games this week, at least as far as my predictions go.  It looks like we'll be betting on a lot of away teams with the line at this stage - I'm happy with that because as previous work has shown these are the most profitable bets to be had in Super 14s.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
12/03/2010ChiefsCrusaders 49%48%
12/03/2010WaratahsLions91% 8%
13/03/2010BrumbiesSharks 55%42%
13/03/2010BullsHighlanders 89%10%
13/03/2010StormersHurricanes 47%50%
13/03/2010RedsW Force49% 47%

Sunday, March 7, 2010

A-League 2009/10 Season - Finals Week 2 Predictions

Despite the fact that two of the matches in the first week of the finals ended up in draws at the end of 90 minutes, footytips credits the winner of a penalty shoot-out with the result, hence we managed to get to of the results correct and moved up to 62nd place overall, probably helped by those above me who didn't bother submitting tips for the finals.

So from here on in it's do-or-die, but keep in mind these predictions are only relevant for the result at the end of 90 minuites.

DateTeam 1 Team 2VenuePr T1 Pr DrawPr T2
07/03/2010New Zealand Newcastle JetsWestpac Stadium42% 26%32%
07/03/2010Sydney FC Melbourne VictorySydney Football Stadium 37%27% 36%

Friday, March 5, 2010

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 28 Predictions

A pretty good week last week in the EPL in tipping 6 from 9.  Unfortunately for some stupid reason I didn't enetr in my tip of Liverpool to beat Blackburn, meaning we didn't get the point for it - so officially on footytips I'm ranked 468th though in reality I should be a little higher.

It seems like a week of catch-up game as there are games everyday spread from Saturday through to Wednesday. 

DateHome Team Away TeamPr HomePr Draw Pr Away
6/03/2010Arsenal Burnley87%9%4%
6/03/2010West Ham United Bolton Wanderers53%27%22%
6/03/2010 Wolverhampton WanderersManchester United8%15% 77%
7/03/2010Everton Hull City77%15%8%
8/03/2010Wigan Athletic Liverpool12%22%67%
9/03/2010Portsmouth Birmingham City40%30%30%
9/03/2010Sunderland Bolton Wanderers43%30%27%
10/03/2010Burnley Stoke City34%31%35%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 4 Predictions

 A decent week last week for Super 14 tipping, getting 5 of the 7 results correct.  Also a great week was had bettign wise, with big collects on the Blues and Highlanders who we rated as favourites despite the bookies thinking otherwise.

This week onwards sees each round reduce to 6 games, with 2 teams having a bye.  No real surprises with who we've tipped, though some decent overlays exist for those backing teams to win or beat the line.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
5/03/2010ChiefsReds 89%10%
5/03/2010Brumbies Lions88%11%
6/03/2010Crusaders Blues81%17%
6/03/2010Waratahs Sharks60%37%
6/03/2010Stormers Highlanders74%23%
6/03/2010Cheetahs Hurricanes17%81%