Thursday, March 25, 2010

AFL 2010 Season - Round 1 Predictions

The 2010 AFL season proper gets underway today, so too my predictions for each game.  As the model is partly player based, and as only the Richmond vs Carlton teams have been named, I can only publish my predictions for this game at this stage - but as more teams get announced then I'll post the probs up here.

The model has tipped Carlton at a lot shorter price than the bookies have - the reason being that Richmond are playing 3 first-gamers, and the model just doesn't like this.  Even without these players it will still throw the game up as an 80 / 20 chance in Carlton's favour.

Now that teams have been named for Friday and Saturday's game I can release predictions for them - interesting that Geelong are rated shorter and Hawthorn even higher than the bookies odds, all down to the profile of players picked.  The Lions too are rated higher than the bookies so no doubt will be bet on.

A great start last night with Carlton easily account for Richmond, with an easy bet on them collecting.  Also we rated them a 30-point favourite so a bet on them to beat the line of 15.5 points at the start of the game made for another easy collect.

The teams for Sunday's games have now been released and the predictions are now up.  Interesting that it has tipped Collingwood over the Western Bulldogs, based on profile of players selected.  We're currently sitting on 5 from 5 tips so far so let's see if teh form continues.

With some late changes to Port Adelaide's side we now swing our tip over to North Melbourne - it's the cardinal rule of tipping not to change from the original selection and I've done it twice this round already - fingers crossed!!

Team 1Team 2 VenueProb 1Prob 2
RichmondCarltonMCG 13%86%
GeelongEssendonMCG 59%39%
MelbourneHawthornMCG 8%92%
SydneySt KildaANZ Stadium 36%63%
BrisbaneWest CoastGabba 84%15%
Port AdelaideNorth MelbourneAAMI 42%46%
Western BulldogsCollingwoodEtihad Stadium 45%53%
FremantleAdelaideSubiaco 35%64%

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