EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 18 Predictions

While we only managed 5 winners for last week, this was good enough to be in the top 4% for the week on on footytips,and moved us into overall 202nd spot.  Our recent good form on the bet has continued with wins to Villa and Manchester United making up for the Everton non-result.

This week there's nothing out of the ordinary - smallish bets on Liverpool and Blackburn at home which should be rather safe.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Arsenal	Stoke City	77%	15%	8%
Birmingham City	Newcastle United	47%	29%	24%
Blackburn Rovers	West Ham United	58%	25%	17%
Blackpool	Tottenham Hotspur	25%	29%	46%
Chelsea	Manchester United	42%	30%	28%
Liverpool	Fulham	70%	19%	11%
Manchester City	Everton	51%	28%	21%
Sunderland	Bolton Wanderers	48%	29%	23%
West Bromwich Albion	Wolverhampton Wanderers	53%	27%	20%
Wigan Athletic	Aston Villa	26%	30%	44%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 17 Predictions

Tipping 6 winners last week saw us jump about 25 places in the top 1% of all tippers on footytips.  For the first time in a while we made a decent return for the week with bets on Blackburn and Man City saluting.

Not many surprises this week - if anything I think Chelsea looks like a good bet in a London derby

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Aston Villa	West Bromwich Albion	59%	25%	16%
Bolton Wanderers	Blackburn Rovers	41%	30%	29%
Everton	Wigan Athletic	73%	17%	9%
Fulham	Sunderland	45%	29%	25%
Manchester United	Arsenal	58%	25%	17%
Newcastle United	Liverpool	20%	27%	52%
Stoke City	Blackpool	56%	26%	18%
Tottenham Hotspur	Chelsea	25%	29%	46%
West Ham United	Manchester City	23%	29%	48%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Birmingham City	38%	31%	31%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 16 Predictions

EPL tipping has gone quite well in the hiatus, we know sit in the top 1% of all tippers on footytips. From memory we've never been so high on the ladder so early into the season - hopefully we can keep this up and really aim high by the end of the season.

No surprises this week in the tips - in fact comparing our probs with the bookie prices there is very little difference - so no bets at all this week.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Aston Villa	West Bromwich Albion	62%	23%	15%
Bolton Wanderers	Blackburn Rovers	43%	30%	27%
Everton	Wigan Athletic	73%	17%	9%
Fulham	Sunderland	47%	29%	24%
Manchester United	Arsenal	58%	25%	17%
Newcastle United	Liverpool	22%	28%	50%
Stoke City	Blackpool	55%	26%	18%
Tottenham Hotspur	Chelsea	25%	29%	46%
West Ham United	Manchester City	24%	29%	46%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Birmingham City	39%	30%	30%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 12 Predictions

As with the A-League, it was a sub-standard performance in the EPL last week - only managing to get 4 of 10 games correct - yet that was still good enough for the top 14% for the week, and still top 3% overall on footytips.

 Not many surprises this week, and the only bet being a big one on Chelsea at small odds to beat Sunderland. And I wouldn't mind at all if that bet lost.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Aston Villa	Manchester United	19%	27%	54%
Chelsea	Sunderland	86%	10%	4%
Everton	Arsenal	33%	31%	36%
Manchester City	Birmingham City	68%	21%	12%
Newcastle United	Fulham	43%	30%	27%
Stoke City	Liverpool	21%	28%	51%
Tottenham Hotspur	Blackburn Rovers	57%	25%	17%
West Ham United	Blackpool	49%	28%	23%
Wigan Athletic	West Bromwich Albion	39%	31%	31%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Bolton Wanderers	39%	30%	30%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 10 Predictions

Last week was more or less and average week, getting 6 or the 10 tips correct.  As it stood the suggested bets of Chelsea and Liverpool both won, I should have stuck by the model it seems.

No surprises this week, it appears a pretty obvious round for tipping.  A few bets have been thrown up though - namely on Aston Villa, Everton, Fulham, and Manchester United.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Arsenal	West Ham United	82%	12%	6%
Aston Villa	Birmingham City	62%	23%	14%
Blackburn Rovers	Chelsea	12%	21%	67%
Blackpool	West Bromwich Albion	39%	31%	31%
Bolton Wanderers	Liverpool	21%	28%	51%
Everton	Stoke City	67%	21%	12%
Fulham	Wigan Athletic	59%	25%	16%
Manchester United	Tottenham Hotspur	73%	18%	10%
Newcastle United	Sunderland	44%	30%	26%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Manchester City	22%	28%	49%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 9 Predictions

Last week we got 5 of the results correct, the 5 we missed all being draws.  So even though we lost one on Manchetser United's draw, we managed to tip everton at home against a flatering Liverpool.  We managed to place in the top 8% for the week and 10% overall on footytips.

No real surprises this week - I've tipped Arsernal away to Manchester City in what should eb the match of the round.  A couple of small bets on Chelsea and Liverpool which I might leave alone, due to the small odds in Chelsea's game and the undertainty around Liverpool.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Birmingham City	Blackpool	51%	28%	21%
Chelsea	Wolverhampton Wanderers	90%	7%	3%
Liverpool	Blackburn Rovers	68%	20%	12%
Manchester City	Arsenal	34%	31%	36%
Stoke City	Manchester United	12%	21%	67%
Sunderland	Aston Villa	31%	31%	39%
Tottenham Hotspur	Everton	44%	30%	26%
West Bromwich Albion	Fulham	42%	30%	28%
West Ham United	Newcastle United	47%	29%	24%
Wigan Athletic	Bolton Wanderers	39%	30%	31%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 8 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, tipping 6 winners - missing out on the 3 draws and Liverpool's shock loss at home to Blackpool.  Against a footytips average of 4.3 this was good enough for the top 4% of the week.  Unfortunately Liverpool's loss hurt us in the hip pocket as well, though wins to Man City and Chelsea went some way to minimize the damage.

 No real surprises this week, or bets either - except I rate Manchester United a lot better than the bookies do (even though they're only offering $1.30) - so a decent bet on them which should hopefully hold up.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Arsenal	Birmingham City	79%	14%	7%
Aston Villa	Chelsea	18%	26%	57%
Blackburn Rovers	Sunderland	53%	27%	20%
Blackpool	Manchester City	23%	28%	49%
Bolton Wanderers	Stoke City	43%	30%	27%
Everton	Liverpool	39%	30%	31%
Fulham	Tottenham Hotspur	34%	31%	36%
Manchester United	West Bromwich Albion	86%	10%	4%
Newcastle United	Wigan Athletic	53%	27%	20%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	West Ham United	43%	30%	27%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 7 Predictions

Well, last week was officially the worst week I've had since I started tipping the EPL - managing only 1 from 10 tips correct. When Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool all fail to win then you know you're in trouble.  Still, the average on footytips was only 1.6 so it wasn't a complete disaster.

No real surprises this week, all the top teams look to have easy games so with any luck things return to normal this week.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Birmingham City	Everton	28%	30%	42%
Chelsea	Arsenal	61%	24%	15%
Liverpool	Blackpool	80%	14%	7%
Manchester City	Newcastle United	69%	20%	11%
Stoke City	Blackburn Rovers	42%	30%	28%
Sunderland	Manchester United	11%	19%	70%
Tottenham Hotspur	Aston Villa	48%	29%	23%
West Bromwich Albion	Bolton Wanderers	48%	29%	24%
West Ham United	Fulham	38%	31%	31%
Wigan Athletic	Wolverhampton Wanderers	42%	30%	28%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 6 Predictions

Not a lot to report in the EPL - tipped 5 from 10 results last week which was par for the course.

A few bets on the home teams this week are looming, particularly Liverpool and Birmingham

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Arsenal	West Bromwich Albion	81%	13%	6%
Birmingham City	Wigan Athletic	57%	26%	17%
Blackpool	Blackburn Rovers	35%	31%	34%
Bolton Wanderers	Manchester United	10%	18%	72%
Fulham	Everton	32%	31%	37%
Liverpool	Sunderland	76%	16%	8%
Manchester City	Chelsea	20%	27%	54%
Newcastle United	Stoke City	45%	29%	26%
West Ham United	Tottenham Hotspur	26%	29%	45%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Aston Villa	27%	30%	43%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 4 Predictions

The previous round prior to the international break saw 5 of 10 games predicted correctly, pretty much par for the course according to footytips. No bets at all last round, so nothing to report there.

This week sees no real surprises, a small bet on Arsenal perhaps although at short odds so not really much action this week.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Arsenal	Bolton Wanderers	81%	13%	6%
Birmingham City	Liverpool	20%	27%	53%
Everton	Manchester United	22%	28%	49%
Fulham	Wolverhampton Wanderers	55%	26%	19%
Manchester City	Blackburn Rovers	60%	24%	16%
Newcastle United	Blackpool	54%	27%	19%
Stoke City	Aston Villa	30%	30%	40%
West Bromwich Albion	Tottenham Hotspur	26%	30%	44%
West Ham United	Chelsea	9%	17%	74%
Wigan Athletic	Sunderland	40%	30%	30%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 3 Predictions

A pretty average week in EPL tipping, getting 5 of the games right and losing both the bets on Everton and West Ham.  Still, with 10 tips so far for the year we're already sitting in the top 15% on footytips, and that will only improve as the season progresses.

Not much to get excited about this week - I've tipped all the favourites, and for the first time in a long time there's no games suggested for me to bet on.  Probably not such a bad thing that from time to time my model is pretty close to what the bookies are saying.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Aston Villa	Everton	41%	30%	29%
Blackburn Rovers	Arsenal	20%	27%	53%
Blackpool	Fulham	35%	31%	35%
Bolton Wanderers	Birmingham City	43%	30%	27%
Chelsea	Stoke City	87%	9%	4%
Liverpool	West Bromwich Albion	78%	15%	7%
Manchester United	West Ham United	88%	9%	4%
Sunderland	Manchester City	25%	29%	46%
Tottenham Hotspur	Wigan Athletic	75%	16%	8%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Newcastle United	44%	30%	27%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 2 Predictions

Apologies for not  posting my picks for the first week of the EPL - for the record we had 5 correct tips when the average on footytips was 4.5.

This week the only real curve-ball is we've tipped Liverpool to win away to Manchester City - I still don't rate City as high as the bookies, they'll need to start putting in some decent consistent performances against clubs like Liverpool before I do.

Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
Arsenal	Blackpool	83%	11%	5%
Birmingham City	Blackburn Rovers	40%	30%	30%
Everton	Wolverhampton Wanderers	72%	18%	10%
Fulham	Manchester United	13%	21%	66%
Manchester City	Liverpool	32%	31%	37%
Newcastle United	Aston Villa	25%	29%	46%
Stoke City	Tottenham Hotspur	29%	30%	41%
West Bromwich Albion	Sunderland	45%	29%	25%
West Ham United	Bolton Wanderers	49%	29%	23%
Wigan Athletic	Chelsea	7%	14%	78%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 13 Predictions

A great week last week for the model.  It managed to tip 6 winners which isn't too bad - but it also turned a tasty profit which is all the better.  Great collects on Richmond, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne (who returned half of the 5.50 odds outlaid) saw a great return for the week.

The round sees the split round, so at the time of writing the predictions below for the first 5 games are based on team form and the players selected, while the last 3 games are based on team form alone and will be updated next week when those squads are announced.

NOTE:  The predictions for the second half of the split round are now updated to include the player's picked.
 

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Hawthorn	Essendon	MCG	51%	48%
Carlton	Fremantle	Telstra Dome	54%	45%
Brisbane	Richmond	Gabba	73%	25%
North Melbourne	Port Adelaide	Telstra Dome	80%	19%
West Coast	Western Bulldogs	Subiaco	18%	81%
St Kilda	Geelong	MCG	46%	52%
Sydney	Collingwood	ANZ Stadium	51%	45%
Adelaide	Melbourne	AAMI Stadium	41%	58%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 11 Predictions

Last week the model lobbed with 5 winners, as mopst other people would have received as well given it was a week of clear favourites. The good news though is that we managed to get 5 from 5 bets home - including wins on outsiders Essendon @ $3.50 and Brisbane @ $3.73.

This week we've thrown up some interesting picks - including tips on outsiders North Melbourne, Essendon and Western Bulldogs who we rate close to $1.20 chance to beat Collingwood - no doubt we'll see a big bet on them.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Richmond	St Kilda	Telstra Dome	20%	79%
Carlton	Melbourne	MCG	54%	44%
Adelaide	Fremantle	AAMI Stadium	28%	70%
North Melbourne	Brisbane	Telstra Dome	52%	47%
West Coast	Geelong	Subiaco	29%	69%
Sydney	Essendon	SCG	46%	52%
Hawthorn	Port Adelaide	MCG	81%	18%
Collingwood	Western Bulldogs	Telstra Dome	18%	81%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 10 Predictions

Back to tipping 6 last week which is a Good sign - the two games we missed out on were Port losing by a point against Melbourne (albeit that were much further down at three-quarter time), and Carlton losing to Hawthorn despite being healthy favourites. Still, we managed a couple of good tips on outsiders in Fremantle away to Sydney, and Adelaide over Brisbane - obviously these were bets as well. Combined with the western Bulldogs who we rated sure things against North Melbourne and it was another profitable week.


This week sees the model agreeing with the bookmakers in just about every game - last night we actually would have had a small bet on Essendon so good signs there. A couple of potential bets include Brisbane at home tonight against Collingwood, and Freo at home tomorrow against North Melbourne.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Essendon	Western Bulldogs	Telstra Dome	29%	70%
Geelong	Melbourne	Skilled Stadium	70%	29%
Port Adelaide	Richmond	AAMI Stadium	80%	19%
Brisbane	Collingwood	Gabba	37%	62%
St Kilda	Adelaide	Telstra Dome	83%	16%
Hawthorn	Sydney	MCG	74%	25%
Carlton	West Coast	Telstra Dome	73%	25%
Fremantle	North Melbourne	Subiaco	93%	7%

Super 14 2010 Season - Semi Final Predictions

A perfect week last week in the Super 14s, tipping all 7 winners correctly - and at odds of roughly 13 to 1 so it was no sure thing this would happen.

This weeks sees the semi-finals, with South African teams hosting a team each from Australia and NZ.  There's slight value on the away teams here, so likely we'll be having a small bet on both teams to beat the line.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
22/05/2010	Bulls	Crusaders	58%	39%
22/05/2010	Stormers	Waratahs	65%	32%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 9 Predictions

A pretty horrible last week, crashing back to earth with only 3 tips.  And not much better on the betting, though a close call on Richmond certainly would have changed our fortunes.

Not a lot of surprises this wekk - we tip against the favourite in a coupel of close games but otherwise the probs match up with the bookies' odds quite well.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Collingwood	Geelong	MCG	49%	50%
North Melbourne	Western Bulldogs	Telstra Dome	10%	90%
Sydney	Fremantle	SCG	47%	52%
Melbourne	Port Adelaide	TIO Stadium	39%	60%
Essendon	Richmond	MCG	76%	23%
Adelaide	Brisbane	AAMI Stadium	53%	45%
Carlton	Hawthorn	Telstra Dome	68%	30%
West Coast	St Kilda	Subiaco	46%	52%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 8 Predictions

It was one of thoseweeks in the AFL last round, we tipped a pretty respectable 6 from 8, including tipping the upset of Fremantle winning away to Brisbane.  As luck would have it though the two bets I had happenes to be on the two tips I missed out on, so no joy on the betting side.

This week sees a few interesting picks - Freo to win quite easily over Collingwood and Brisbane to beat Geelong.  I'll be betting on all home teams, with the exception of the St Kilda vs Essendon game where I'll probably end up with a small wager on the Bombers.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Fremantle	Collingwood	Subiaco	69%	29%
Western Bulldogs	Sydney	Manuka Oval	78%	21%
Melbourne	West Coast	MCG	78%	20%
Brisbane	Geelong	Gabba	58%	40%
North Melbourne	Adelaide	Telstra Dome	67%	31%
Richmond	Hawthorn	MCG	32%	66%
Port Adelaide	Carlton	AAMI Stadium	55%	43%
St Kilda	Essendon	Telstra Dome	61%	37%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 14 Predictions

Apologies for missing predictions last week - inetrnet issues at home made it too difficult to get predicitons out.  For the record we tipped 5 from 7 results, and the big bet on the Crusaders to cover the line over the Bulls managed to get up by a few points.

It's the last round of the regular season this weekend, and we end up tipping all the home teams.   Typically enough though we end up with a few big bets on away teams to cover the line - Chiefs, Highlanders and Lions all tipped to cover the spread.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
14/05/2010	Crusaders	Brumbies	74%	24%
14/05/2010	Waratahs	Hurricanes	60%	36%
14/05/2010	Sharks	W Force	84%	14%
15/05/2010	Blues	Chiefs	65%	32%
15/05/2010	Reds	Highlanders	66%	31%
15/05/2010	Cheetahs	Lions	74%	23%
15/05/2010	Stormers	Bulls	55%	42%

AFL 2010 Season - Round 6 Predictions

Well we finally sorted the kinks out in the model and tipped favourites in every game in Round 5, only to see half of them lose.  Still, as mentioned in last weeks post we had bets on Melbourne and Carlton who both won at generous odds.

This week sees us tipping all favourites again, except for Essendon over Hawthorn which again I'm comfortable to go with.  So it looks like we'll be betting on Essendon and Richmond, who we rate a lot better than their odds suggest.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Western Bulldogs	St Kilda	Telstra Dome	59%	39%
North Melbourne	Melbourne	Telstra Dome	38%	61%
Adelaide	Port Adelaide	AAMI Stadium	42%	56%
Essendon	Hawthorn	MCG	51%	47%
Sydney	Brisbane	SCG	65%	33%
Geelong	Richmond	Skilled Stadium	74%	24%
Carlton	Collingwood	MCG	31%	67%
West Coast	Fremantle	Subiaco	30%	68%