EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 8 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, tipping 6 winners - missing out on the 3 draws and Liverpool's shock loss at home to Blackpool.  Against a footytips average of 4.3 this was good enough for the top 4% of the week.  Unfortunately Liverpool's loss hurt us in the hip pocket as well, though wins to Man City and Chelsea went some way to minimize the damage.

 No real surprises this week, or bets either - except I rate Manchester United a lot better than the bookies do (even though they're only offering $1.30) - so a decent bet on them which should hopefully hold up.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Arsenal	Birmingham City	79%	14%	7%
Aston Villa	Chelsea	18%	26%	57%
Blackburn Rovers	Sunderland	53%	27%	20%
Blackpool	Manchester City	23%	28%	49%
Bolton Wanderers	Stoke City	43%	30%	27%
Everton	Liverpool	39%	30%	31%
Fulham	Tottenham Hotspur	34%	31%	36%
Manchester United	West Bromwich Albion	86%	10%	4%
Newcastle United	Wigan Athletic	53%	27%	20%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	West Ham United	43%	30%	27%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 7 Predictions

Well, last week was officially the worst week I've had since I started tipping the EPL - managing only 1 from 10 tips correct. When Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool all fail to win then you know you're in trouble.  Still, the average on footytips was only 1.6 so it wasn't a complete disaster.

No real surprises this week, all the top teams look to have easy games so with any luck things return to normal this week.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Birmingham City	Everton	28%	30%	42%
Chelsea	Arsenal	61%	24%	15%
Liverpool	Blackpool	80%	14%	7%
Manchester City	Newcastle United	69%	20%	11%
Stoke City	Blackburn Rovers	42%	30%	28%
Sunderland	Manchester United	11%	19%	70%
Tottenham Hotspur	Aston Villa	48%	29%	23%
West Bromwich Albion	Bolton Wanderers	48%	29%	24%
West Ham United	Fulham	38%	31%	31%
Wigan Athletic	Wolverhampton Wanderers	42%	30%	28%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 6 Predictions

Not a lot to report in the EPL - tipped 5 from 10 results last week which was par for the course.

A few bets on the home teams this week are looming, particularly Liverpool and Birmingham

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Arsenal	West Bromwich Albion	81%	13%	6%
Birmingham City	Wigan Athletic	57%	26%	17%
Blackpool	Blackburn Rovers	35%	31%	34%
Bolton Wanderers	Manchester United	10%	18%	72%
Fulham	Everton	32%	31%	37%
Liverpool	Sunderland	76%	16%	8%
Manchester City	Chelsea	20%	27%	54%
Newcastle United	Stoke City	45%	29%	26%
West Ham United	Tottenham Hotspur	26%	29%	45%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Aston Villa	27%	30%	43%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 4 Predictions

The previous round prior to the international break saw 5 of 10 games predicted correctly, pretty much par for the course according to footytips. No bets at all last round, so nothing to report there.

This week sees no real surprises, a small bet on Arsenal perhaps although at short odds so not really much action this week.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Arsenal	Bolton Wanderers	81%	13%	6%
Birmingham City	Liverpool	20%	27%	53%
Everton	Manchester United	22%	28%	49%
Fulham	Wolverhampton Wanderers	55%	26%	19%
Manchester City	Blackburn Rovers	60%	24%	16%
Newcastle United	Blackpool	54%	27%	19%
Stoke City	Aston Villa	30%	30%	40%
West Bromwich Albion	Tottenham Hotspur	26%	30%	44%
West Ham United	Chelsea	9%	17%	74%
Wigan Athletic	Sunderland	40%	30%	30%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 3 Predictions

A pretty average week in EPL tipping, getting 5 of the games right and losing both the bets on Everton and West Ham.  Still, with 10 tips so far for the year we're already sitting in the top 15% on footytips, and that will only improve as the season progresses.

Not much to get excited about this week - I've tipped all the favourites, and for the first time in a long time there's no games suggested for me to bet on.  Probably not such a bad thing that from time to time my model is pretty close to what the bookies are saying.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Aston Villa	Everton	41%	30%	29%
Blackburn Rovers	Arsenal	20%	27%	53%
Blackpool	Fulham	35%	31%	35%
Bolton Wanderers	Birmingham City	43%	30%	27%
Chelsea	Stoke City	87%	9%	4%
Liverpool	West Bromwich Albion	78%	15%	7%
Manchester United	West Ham United	88%	9%	4%
Sunderland	Manchester City	25%	29%	46%
Tottenham Hotspur	Wigan Athletic	75%	16%	8%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Newcastle United	44%	30%	27%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 2 Predictions

Apologies for not  posting my picks for the first week of the EPL - for the record we had 5 correct tips when the average on footytips was 4.5.

This week the only real curve-ball is we've tipped Liverpool to win away to Manchester City - I still don't rate City as high as the bookies, they'll need to start putting in some decent consistent performances against clubs like Liverpool before I do.

Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
Arsenal	Blackpool	83%	11%	5%
Birmingham City	Blackburn Rovers	40%	30%	30%
Everton	Wolverhampton Wanderers	72%	18%	10%
Fulham	Manchester United	13%	21%	66%
Manchester City	Liverpool	32%	31%	37%
Newcastle United	Aston Villa	25%	29%	46%
Stoke City	Tottenham Hotspur	29%	30%	41%
West Bromwich Albion	Sunderland	45%	29%	25%
West Ham United	Bolton Wanderers	49%	29%	23%
Wigan Athletic	Chelsea	7%	14%	78%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 31 Predictions

Last week saw us tip 7 from 11 and move up to 457th place overall on the footytips ladder.

A mammoth week of games, we 4 games played yesterday morning andanother 10 before the week is out.  No major suprprises here, the only real eyebrow raiser is Aston villa being rated so poorly against Chelsea, but it seems to be in line with what the bookmakers are showing so what can you do?

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
24/03/2010	Aston Villa	Sunderland	70%	19%	11%
24/03/2010	Manchester City	Everton	41%	30%	29%
24/03/2010	Portsmouth	Chelsea	9%	17%	74%
27/03/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Birmingham City	47%	29%	24%
27/03/2010	Birmingham City	Arsenal	14%	22%	64%
27/03/2010	Chelsea	Aston Villa	72%	18%	10%
27/03/2010	Hull City	Fulham	26%	29%	44%
27/03/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Portsmouth	72%	18%	10%
27/03/2010	West Ham United	Stoke City	45%	29%	25%
27/03/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Everton	20%	27%	53%
27/03/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Manchester United	9%	17%	74%
27/03/2010	Burnley	Blackburn Rovers	31%	30%	38%
28/03/2010	Liverpool	Sunderland	81%	13%	6%
29/03/2010	Manchester City	Wigan Athletic	68%	20%	12%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 30 Predictions

Last week we tipped 7 from 11 results correct, but despite the better than expected return we drop slightly to 574th place overall on the footytips ladder.

This week sees another 11 games with West Ham and Wolverhampton playing a catch-up game mid week.  Should I remember beforehandthen I'll update the predictions for this game after the weekend.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
20/03/2010	Aston Villa	Wolverhampton Wanderers	74%	17%	9%
20/03/2010	Everton	Bolton Wanderers	70%	19%	11%
20/03/2010	Portsmouth	Hull City	54%	27%	20%
20/03/2010	Stoke City	Tottenham Hotspur	28%	30%	42%
20/03/2010	Sunderland	Birmingham City	39%	30%	31%
20/03/2010	Wigan Athletic	Burnley	51%	28%	22%
20/03/2010	Arsenal	West Ham United	81%	13%	6%
21/03/2010	Manchester United	Liverpool	58%	25%	17%
21/03/2010	Fulham	Manchester City	37%	30%	33%
21/03/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Chelsea	11%	20%	69%
23/03/2010	West Ham United	Wolverhampton Wanderers	56%	26%	18%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Finals Week 4 Predictions - Grand Final

We managed to get the result correct in last week's Sydney - Wellington preliminary final, and the result saw us move up 1 spot to 46th overall on footytips.

So this week sees the grand final, and the 4th time in succession that Melbourne's opponent in the A-League happens to be Sydney, surely a record.  As expected we tip Melbourne due to the home-field advantage, but keep in mind these predictions are for the result at the end of 90 minutes.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
20/03/2010	Melbourne	Sydney FC	Etihad Stadium	46%	26%	28%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Finals Week 3 Predictions

Last week we managed to get both results correct, thanks to Wellington winning in extra-time.  This result moves us up to 47th place overall on the footytips ladder.

So this week sees the preliminary final between Sydney and Wellington, the winner going through to Melbourne next week to play the Victory in the season decider.  Keep in mind that the predictions below are for the result at the end of 90 minutes.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
13/03/2010	Sydney FC	New Zealand	Sydney Football Stadium	51%	25%	25%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 29 Predictions

We went worse than expected last week, only getting 4 of the 8 results correct and slipping to about 500th on the footytips ladder.

This week sees 11 games, with Wigan and Aston Villa playing a catch-up game mid-week.  I'll update the probs for this game after the weekend matches.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
13/02/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Blackburn Rovers	63%	23%	14%
13/02/2010	Birmingham City	Everton	27%	30%	43%
13/02/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Wigan Athletic	46%	29%	25%
13/02/2010	Burnley	Wolverhampton Wanderers	44%	30%	27%
13/02/2010	Chelsea	West Ham United	84%	11%	5%
13/02/2010	Stoke City	Aston Villa	27%	30%	44%
13/02/2010	Hull City	Arsenal	9%	16%	75%
14/02/2010	Manchester United	Fulham	81%	13%	6%
14/02/2010	Sunderland	Manchester City	26%	29%	45%
15/02/2010	Liverpool	Portsmouth	82%	12%	6%
16/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Aston Villa	22%	28%	50%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Finals Week 2 Predictions

Despite the fact that two of the matches in the first week of the finals ended up in draws at the end of 90 minutes, footytips credits the winner of a penalty shoot-out with the result, hence we managed to get to of the results correct and moved up to 62nd place overall, probably helped by those above me who didn't bother submitting tips for the finals.

So from here on in it's do-or-die, but keep in mind these predictions are only relevant for the result at the end of 90 minuites.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
07/03/2010	New Zealand	Newcastle Jets	Westpac Stadium	42%	26%	32%
07/03/2010	Sydney FC	Melbourne Victory	Sydney Football Stadium	37%	27%	36%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 28 Predictions

A pretty good week last week in the EPL in tipping 6 from 9.  Unfortunately for some stupid reason I didn't enetr in my tip of Liverpool to beat Blackburn, meaning we didn't get the point for it - so officially on footytips I'm ranked 468th though in reality I should be a little higher.

It seems like a week of catch-up game as there are games everyday spread from Saturday through to Wednesday. 

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
6/03/2010	Arsenal	Burnley	87%	9%	4%
6/03/2010	West Ham United	Bolton Wanderers	53%	27%	22%
6/03/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Manchester United	8%	15%	77%
7/03/2010	Everton	Hull City	77%	15%	8%
8/03/2010	Wigan Athletic	Liverpool	12%	22%	67%
9/03/2010	Portsmouth	Birmingham City	40%	30%	30%
9/03/2010	Sunderland	Bolton Wanderers	43%	30%	27%
10/03/2010	Burnley	Stoke City	34%	31%	35%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 27 Predictions

Last week we tipped as expected, getting 7 of the 12 results correct, and drop slightly on the footytips ladder to 420th overall. 

This week saw a mid-week game which Manchester United won easily as expected, and 8 games over the weekend.  The only real surprise being how high we rate Chelsea over Man City, though the bookmakers have priced them pretty close to how I rate them.  Also Fulham I've tipped over Sunderland, who are well favoured with the bookies.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
23/02/2010	Manchester United	West Ham United	83%	11%	5%
27/02/2010	Birmingham City	Wigan Athletic	52%	27%	21%
27/02/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Wolverhampton Wanderers	50%	28%	22%
27/02/2010	Burnley	Portsmouth	41%	30%	29%
27/02/2010	Chelsea	Manchester City	78%	15%	7%
27/02/2010	Stoke City	Arsenal	15%	24%	61%
28/02/2010	Liverpool	Blackburn Rovers	78%	15%	7%
28/02/2010	Sunderland	Fulham	31%	30%	38%
28/02/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Everton	43%	30%	28%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Finals Week 1 Predictions

Another great week for tipping in the A-League, again getting 4 of the 5 results correct.  We missed out on tipping the Newcastle vs Adelaide game, but we rated Adelaide above the odds so the bet we had on them more than makes up for missing the tip.

So with that we finish the regular season in 81st place overall on footytips, out of the 31,000+ A-Aleague tippers, managing to get just over 49% of the tips correct - which highlights how I've said all along how hard it is to tip correct results, but at least we're doing it better than the vast majority of other tippers.

So onwards to the finals.  As I mentioend in the previous A-League post, the model is built only on regular season games - as such it won't take into account any nuances that occur in finals matches (particularly those played over 2 legs), and in any case they will only predict the result at the end of 90 minutes - not at teh end of extra time.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
16/02/2010	Melbourne Victory	Sydney FC	Etihad Stadium	47%	26%	28%
20/02/2010	Gold Coast	Newcastle Jets	Skilled Park	48%	25%	27%
21/02/2010	New Zealand	Perth Glory	Westpac Stadium	42%	26%	31%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 26 Predictions

EDIT - weekend matches now updated after mid-week games

Last week we tipped slightly worse than expected, getting 5 of the 10 results correct - yet we moved up slightly to 387th overall on footytips.

this weeks sees 12 games overall, with a couple of mid-week fixtures scheduled for games postponed earlier in the season - we'll update the weekend predictions after the mid-week games have been played.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
16/02/2010	Stoke City	Manchester City	32%	30%	37%
17/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Bolton Wanderers	45%	29%	26%
20/02/2010	Arsenal	Sunderland	85%	11%	5%
20/02/2010	Everton	Manchester United	21%	27%	52%
20/02/2010	Portsmouth	Stoke City	41%	30%	29%
20/02/2010	West Ham United	Hull City	60%	24%	16%
20/02/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Chelsea	8%	15%	78%
21/02/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Bolton Wanderers	50%	28%	22%
21/02/2010	Aston Villa	Burnley	74%	17%	9%
21/02/2010	Fulham	Birmingham City	53%	27%	20%
21/02/2010	Manchester City	Liverpool	25%	29%	46%
21/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Tottenham Hotspur	26%	29%	45%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 26 Predictions

Another great week on the A-League - managing to get 4 of the 5 results correct and move up to 149th place overall on footytips. Also a great week for the betting, getting big results on Central Coast, Adelaide and Wellington.

Hopefully a good week this week will see us finish the regular season in the top 100 overall out of 31,000+ tippers, a pretty good result for league that is notoriously hard to predict.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
12/02/2010	New Zealand	Central Coast Mariners	Westpac Stadium	41%	27%	33%
12/02/2010	Newcastle Jets	Adelaide United	EnergyAustralia Stadium	42%	26%	31%
13/02/2010	Perth Glory	Queensland Roar	Members Equity Stadium	38%	27%	36%
13/02/2010	North Queensland	Gold Coast	Dairy Farmers Stadium	37%	27%	36%
14/02/2010	Sydney FC	Melbourne Victory	Sydney Football Stadium	37%	27%	36%

I'll still be providing tips through the finals but with the caveat that my model is only built on games from the regular season - and as such are only useful in predicting the result at the end of 90 minutes.

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 25 Predictions

Apologies for missing the overnight games, I had no idea they were on til late at night.  For the record we had 2 of the overnight games tipped correctly.

Last week we tipped pretty much on average, getting 6 of the 11 games correct and holding level on footytips.

The remaining games this week seem fairly straightforward - perhaps surprising that everton are rated as high as they are - we'll soon find out.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
9/02/2010	Manchester City	Bolton Wanderers	63%	23%	14%
9/02/2010	Fulham	Burnley	62%	23%	15%
9/02/2010	Portsmouth	Sunderland	48%	28%	23%
9/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Stoke City	41%	30%	29%
10/02/2010	Arsenal	Liverpool	46%	29%	25%
10/02/2010	West Ham United	Birmingham City	45%	29%	25%
10/02/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Tottenham Hotspur	22%	28%	51%
10/02/2010	Aston Villa	Manchester United	21%	27%	52%
10/02/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Hull City	58%	25%	17%
10/02/2010	Everton	Chelsea	19%	26%	55%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 25 Predictions

An extremely good week last week in the A-League - tipping 4 of the 5 results correctly and only narrowly missing out on a clean-sweep as we'd tipped Melbourne instead of North Queensland by the narrowest or margins.  The result sees us move from 387th to 216th on the overall ladder on footytips.

This week we've gone with all the home teams, and also bet on every game for the first time this year - the teams backed are North Queensland, Central Coast, Adelaide, Perth and Wellington. 

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
5/02/2010	Melbourne Victory	North Queensland	Etihad Stadium	54%	24%	22%
6/02/2010	Central Coast Mariners	Newcastle Jets	Bluetongue Stadium	40%	27%	33%
6/02/2010	Adelaide United	Queensland Roar	Hindmarsh Stadium	38%	27%	35%
7/02/2010	Sydney FC	Perth Glory	Parramatta Stadium	50%	25%	25%
7/02/2010	Gold Coast	New Zealand	Skilled Park	52%	24%	24%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 24 Predictions

A pretty poor round, only managing to get 4 of the 11 results correct and sliding to 373rd place on footytips.  For some reason the Hull - Chelsea Tuesday game took over the place of the originally scheduled West Ham - Wolverhampton game - no great concern though as it ended in a draw so we wouldn't have got that tip regardless.

This week sees another 11 games played starting with Fulham against Pompey overnight.  Hopefully a week to bounce back and make up for some of the lost ground.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
3/02/2010	Fulham	Portsmouth	56%	26%	18%
6/02/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Fulham	37%	30%	33%
6/02/2010	Burnley	West Ham United	34%	31%	35%
6/02/2010	Hull City	Manchester City	22%	28%	51%
6/02/2010	Liverpool	Everton	64%	22%	14%
6/02/2010	Manchester United	Portsmouth	88%	8%	4%
6/02/2010	Stoke City	Blackburn Rovers	43%	30%	27%
6/02/2010	Sunderland	Wigan Athletic	44%	30%	27%
6/02/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Aston Villa	44%	29%	26%
7/02/2010	Birmingham City	Wolverhampton Wanderers	56%	26%	18%
7/02/2010	Chelsea	Arsenal	56%	26%	18%