EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 18 Predictions

While we only managed 5 winners for last week, this was good enough to be in the top 4% for the week on on footytips,and moved us into overall 202nd spot.  Our recent good form on the bet has continued with wins to Villa and Manchester United making up for the Everton non-result.

This week there's nothing out of the ordinary - smallish bets on Liverpool and Blackburn at home which should be rather safe.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Arsenal	Stoke City	77%	15%	8%
Birmingham City	Newcastle United	47%	29%	24%
Blackburn Rovers	West Ham United	58%	25%	17%
Blackpool	Tottenham Hotspur	25%	29%	46%
Chelsea	Manchester United	42%	30%	28%
Liverpool	Fulham	70%	19%	11%
Manchester City	Everton	51%	28%	21%
Sunderland	Bolton Wanderers	48%	29%	23%
West Bromwich Albion	Wolverhampton Wanderers	53%	27%	20%
Wigan Athletic	Aston Villa	26%	30%	44%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 17 Predictions

Tipping 6 winners last week saw us jump about 25 places in the top 1% of all tippers on footytips.  For the first time in a while we made a decent return for the week with bets on Blackburn and Man City saluting.

Not many surprises this week - if anything I think Chelsea looks like a good bet in a London derby

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Aston Villa	West Bromwich Albion	59%	25%	16%
Bolton Wanderers	Blackburn Rovers	41%	30%	29%
Everton	Wigan Athletic	73%	17%	9%
Fulham	Sunderland	45%	29%	25%
Manchester United	Arsenal	58%	25%	17%
Newcastle United	Liverpool	20%	27%	52%
Stoke City	Blackpool	56%	26%	18%
Tottenham Hotspur	Chelsea	25%	29%	46%
West Ham United	Manchester City	23%	29%	48%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Birmingham City	38%	31%	31%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 16 Predictions

EPL tipping has gone quite well in the hiatus, we know sit in the top 1% of all tippers on footytips. From memory we've never been so high on the ladder so early into the season - hopefully we can keep this up and really aim high by the end of the season.

No surprises this week in the tips - in fact comparing our probs with the bookie prices there is very little difference - so no bets at all this week.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Aston Villa	West Bromwich Albion	62%	23%	15%
Bolton Wanderers	Blackburn Rovers	43%	30%	27%
Everton	Wigan Athletic	73%	17%	9%
Fulham	Sunderland	47%	29%	24%
Manchester United	Arsenal	58%	25%	17%
Newcastle United	Liverpool	22%	28%	50%
Stoke City	Blackpool	55%	26%	18%
Tottenham Hotspur	Chelsea	25%	29%	46%
West Ham United	Manchester City	24%	29%	46%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Birmingham City	39%	30%	30%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 12 Predictions

As with the A-League, it was a sub-standard performance in the EPL last week - only managing to get 4 of 10 games correct - yet that was still good enough for the top 14% for the week, and still top 3% overall on footytips.

 Not many surprises this week, and the only bet being a big one on Chelsea at small odds to beat Sunderland. And I wouldn't mind at all if that bet lost.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Aston Villa	Manchester United	19%	27%	54%
Chelsea	Sunderland	86%	10%	4%
Everton	Arsenal	33%	31%	36%
Manchester City	Birmingham City	68%	21%	12%
Newcastle United	Fulham	43%	30%	27%
Stoke City	Liverpool	21%	28%	51%
Tottenham Hotspur	Blackburn Rovers	57%	25%	17%
West Ham United	Blackpool	49%	28%	23%
Wigan Athletic	West Bromwich Albion	39%	31%	31%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Bolton Wanderers	39%	30%	30%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 10 Predictions

Last week was more or less and average week, getting 6 or the 10 tips correct.  As it stood the suggested bets of Chelsea and Liverpool both won, I should have stuck by the model it seems.

No surprises this week, it appears a pretty obvious round for tipping.  A few bets have been thrown up though - namely on Aston Villa, Everton, Fulham, and Manchester United.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Arsenal	West Ham United	82%	12%	6%
Aston Villa	Birmingham City	62%	23%	14%
Blackburn Rovers	Chelsea	12%	21%	67%
Blackpool	West Bromwich Albion	39%	31%	31%
Bolton Wanderers	Liverpool	21%	28%	51%
Everton	Stoke City	67%	21%	12%
Fulham	Wigan Athletic	59%	25%	16%
Manchester United	Tottenham Hotspur	73%	18%	10%
Newcastle United	Sunderland	44%	30%	26%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Manchester City	22%	28%	49%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 9 Predictions

Last week we got 5 of the results correct, the 5 we missed all being draws.  So even though we lost one on Manchetser United's draw, we managed to tip everton at home against a flatering Liverpool.  We managed to place in the top 8% for the week and 10% overall on footytips.

No real surprises this week - I've tipped Arsernal away to Manchester City in what should eb the match of the round.  A couple of small bets on Chelsea and Liverpool which I might leave alone, due to the small odds in Chelsea's game and the undertainty around Liverpool.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T
Birmingham City	Blackpool	51%	28%	21%
Chelsea	Wolverhampton Wanderers	90%	7%	3%
Liverpool	Blackburn Rovers	68%	20%	12%
Manchester City	Arsenal	34%	31%	36%
Stoke City	Manchester United	12%	21%	67%
Sunderland	Aston Villa	31%	31%	39%
Tottenham Hotspur	Everton	44%	30%	26%
West Bromwich Albion	Fulham	42%	30%	28%
West Ham United	Newcastle United	47%	29%	24%
Wigan Athletic	Bolton Wanderers	39%	30%	31%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 8 Predictions

A pretty good week last week, tipping 6 winners - missing out on the 3 draws and Liverpool's shock loss at home to Blackpool.  Against a footytips average of 4.3 this was good enough for the top 4% of the week.  Unfortunately Liverpool's loss hurt us in the hip pocket as well, though wins to Man City and Chelsea went some way to minimize the damage.

 No real surprises this week, or bets either - except I rate Manchester United a lot better than the bookies do (even though they're only offering $1.30) - so a decent bet on them which should hopefully hold up.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Arsenal	Birmingham City	79%	14%	7%
Aston Villa	Chelsea	18%	26%	57%
Blackburn Rovers	Sunderland	53%	27%	20%
Blackpool	Manchester City	23%	28%	49%
Bolton Wanderers	Stoke City	43%	30%	27%
Everton	Liverpool	39%	30%	31%
Fulham	Tottenham Hotspur	34%	31%	36%
Manchester United	West Bromwich Albion	86%	10%	4%
Newcastle United	Wigan Athletic	53%	27%	20%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	West Ham United	43%	30%	27%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 7 Predictions

Well, last week was officially the worst week I've had since I started tipping the EPL - managing only 1 from 10 tips correct. When Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool all fail to win then you know you're in trouble.  Still, the average on footytips was only 1.6 so it wasn't a complete disaster.

No real surprises this week, all the top teams look to have easy games so with any luck things return to normal this week.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Birmingham City	Everton	28%	30%	42%
Chelsea	Arsenal	61%	24%	15%
Liverpool	Blackpool	80%	14%	7%
Manchester City	Newcastle United	69%	20%	11%
Stoke City	Blackburn Rovers	42%	30%	28%
Sunderland	Manchester United	11%	19%	70%
Tottenham Hotspur	Aston Villa	48%	29%	23%
West Bromwich Albion	Bolton Wanderers	48%	29%	24%
West Ham United	Fulham	38%	31%	31%
Wigan Athletic	Wolverhampton Wanderers	42%	30%	28%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 6 Predictions

Not a lot to report in the EPL - tipped 5 from 10 results last week which was par for the course.

A few bets on the home teams this week are looming, particularly Liverpool and Birmingham

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Arsenal	West Bromwich Albion	81%	13%	6%
Birmingham City	Wigan Athletic	57%	26%	17%
Blackpool	Blackburn Rovers	35%	31%	34%
Bolton Wanderers	Manchester United	10%	18%	72%
Fulham	Everton	32%	31%	37%
Liverpool	Sunderland	76%	16%	8%
Manchester City	Chelsea	20%	27%	54%
Newcastle United	Stoke City	45%	29%	26%
West Ham United	Tottenham Hotspur	26%	29%	45%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Aston Villa	27%	30%	43%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 4 Predictions

The previous round prior to the international break saw 5 of 10 games predicted correctly, pretty much par for the course according to footytips. No bets at all last round, so nothing to report there.

This week sees no real surprises, a small bet on Arsenal perhaps although at short odds so not really much action this week.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Arsenal	Bolton Wanderers	81%	13%	6%
Birmingham City	Liverpool	20%	27%	53%
Everton	Manchester United	22%	28%	49%
Fulham	Wolverhampton Wanderers	55%	26%	19%
Manchester City	Blackburn Rovers	60%	24%	16%
Newcastle United	Blackpool	54%	27%	19%
Stoke City	Aston Villa	30%	30%	40%
West Bromwich Albion	Tottenham Hotspur	26%	30%	44%
West Ham United	Chelsea	9%	17%	74%
Wigan Athletic	Sunderland	40%	30%	30%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 3 Predictions

A pretty average week in EPL tipping, getting 5 of the games right and losing both the bets on Everton and West Ham.  Still, with 10 tips so far for the year we're already sitting in the top 15% on footytips, and that will only improve as the season progresses.

Not much to get excited about this week - I've tipped all the favourites, and for the first time in a long time there's no games suggested for me to bet on.  Probably not such a bad thing that from time to time my model is pretty close to what the bookies are saying.

Team 1	Team 2	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
Aston Villa	Everton	41%	30%	29%
Blackburn Rovers	Arsenal	20%	27%	53%
Blackpool	Fulham	35%	31%	35%
Bolton Wanderers	Birmingham City	43%	30%	27%
Chelsea	Stoke City	87%	9%	4%
Liverpool	West Bromwich Albion	78%	15%	7%
Manchester United	West Ham United	88%	9%	4%
Sunderland	Manchester City	25%	29%	46%
Tottenham Hotspur	Wigan Athletic	75%	16%	8%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Newcastle United	44%	30%	27%

EPL 2010/11 Season - Week 2 Predictions

Apologies for not  posting my picks for the first week of the EPL - for the record we had 5 correct tips when the average on footytips was 4.5.

This week the only real curve-ball is we've tipped Liverpool to win away to Manchester City - I still don't rate City as high as the bookies, they'll need to start putting in some decent consistent performances against clubs like Liverpool before I do.

Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
Arsenal	Blackpool	83%	11%	5%
Birmingham City	Blackburn Rovers	40%	30%	30%
Everton	Wolverhampton Wanderers	72%	18%	10%
Fulham	Manchester United	13%	21%	66%
Manchester City	Liverpool	32%	31%	37%
Newcastle United	Aston Villa	25%	29%	46%
Stoke City	Tottenham Hotspur	29%	30%	41%
West Bromwich Albion	Sunderland	45%	29%	25%
West Ham United	Bolton Wanderers	49%	29%	23%
Wigan Athletic	Chelsea	7%	14%	78%

EPL 2010-11 Season Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming English Premier League season.

The predictions come about through simulating the entire fixture for the upcoming season 100,000 times, based on ratings that are updated after each game.  Ratings at the start of the season are based on those at the end of last season - so things like off-season signings and pre-season form aren't taken into account.

Again it looks as though Chelsea and Manchester United are the only value for winning the Premiership - this was the case at the start of last season, and before too Long these were pretty safe bets.

Isolating a few other teams - Manchester City and Tottenham I've predicted to not go as well as last year, whereas the Merseysiders in Liverpool and Everton I've lobbed as going better.  Indeed, a quick guide to the points I expect teams to get is pretty close to the average they received in the last two season, so in a sense I expect a sort of regression to the mean rather than sustained improvement.  Tottenham improved 20 points last season, whereas Liverpool dipped 20 points - it's more than likely these teams will not keep those rates going this season.

That Manchester City are third favourite for the Premiership I find laughable - they finished 20 points behind winners Chelsea, and I'd find it impressive if they were able to bridge that gap in the space of one season.  Still, I suppose stranger things have happened.

Team	Points	Pr Win	Pr Win (Excl Big 4)
Chelsea	88.5	45.4%	N/A
Manchester United	87.8	41.1%	N/A
Arsenal	77.4	7.5%	N/A
Liverpool	74.9	4.8%	N/A
Everton	65.3	0.6%	35.9%
Tottenham Hotspur	61.5	0.3%	21.8%
Aston Villa	60.8	0.2%	19.5%
Manchester City	60	0.2%	17.3%
Blackburn Rovers	47.2	0.0%	1.8%
Fulham	45.4	0.0%	1.2%
Stoke City	43.1	0.0%	0.7%
Birmingham City	41.5	0.0%	0.5%
West Ham United	40.4	0.0%	0.3%
Sunderland	39.1	0.0%	0.3%
Newcastle United	38.1	0.0%	0.2%
West Bromwich Albion	38	0.0%	0.2%
Bolton Wanderers	37.9	0.0%	0.2%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	36.6	0.0%	0.1%
Wigan Athletic	34.4	0.0%	0.1%
Blackpool	32.4	0.0%	0.0%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 31 Predictions

Last week saw us tip 7 from 11 and move up to 457th place overall on the footytips ladder.

A mammoth week of games, we 4 games played yesterday morning andanother 10 before the week is out.  No major suprprises here, the only real eyebrow raiser is Aston villa being rated so poorly against Chelsea, but it seems to be in line with what the bookmakers are showing so what can you do?

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
24/03/2010	Aston Villa	Sunderland	70%	19%	11%
24/03/2010	Manchester City	Everton	41%	30%	29%
24/03/2010	Portsmouth	Chelsea	9%	17%	74%
27/03/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Birmingham City	47%	29%	24%
27/03/2010	Birmingham City	Arsenal	14%	22%	64%
27/03/2010	Chelsea	Aston Villa	72%	18%	10%
27/03/2010	Hull City	Fulham	26%	29%	44%
27/03/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Portsmouth	72%	18%	10%
27/03/2010	West Ham United	Stoke City	45%	29%	25%
27/03/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Everton	20%	27%	53%
27/03/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Manchester United	9%	17%	74%
27/03/2010	Burnley	Blackburn Rovers	31%	30%	38%
28/03/2010	Liverpool	Sunderland	81%	13%	6%
29/03/2010	Manchester City	Wigan Athletic	68%	20%	12%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 30 Predictions

Last week we tipped 7 from 11 results correct, but despite the better than expected return we drop slightly to 574th place overall on the footytips ladder.

This week sees another 11 games with West Ham and Wolverhampton playing a catch-up game mid week.  Should I remember beforehandthen I'll update the predictions for this game after the weekend.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
20/03/2010	Aston Villa	Wolverhampton Wanderers	74%	17%	9%
20/03/2010	Everton	Bolton Wanderers	70%	19%	11%
20/03/2010	Portsmouth	Hull City	54%	27%	20%
20/03/2010	Stoke City	Tottenham Hotspur	28%	30%	42%
20/03/2010	Sunderland	Birmingham City	39%	30%	31%
20/03/2010	Wigan Athletic	Burnley	51%	28%	22%
20/03/2010	Arsenal	West Ham United	81%	13%	6%
21/03/2010	Manchester United	Liverpool	58%	25%	17%
21/03/2010	Fulham	Manchester City	37%	30%	33%
21/03/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Chelsea	11%	20%	69%
23/03/2010	West Ham United	Wolverhampton Wanderers	56%	26%	18%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 29 Predictions

We went worse than expected last week, only getting 4 of the 8 results correct and slipping to about 500th on the footytips ladder.

This week sees 11 games, with Wigan and Aston Villa playing a catch-up game mid-week.  I'll update the probs for this game after the weekend matches.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
13/02/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Blackburn Rovers	63%	23%	14%
13/02/2010	Birmingham City	Everton	27%	30%	43%
13/02/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Wigan Athletic	46%	29%	25%
13/02/2010	Burnley	Wolverhampton Wanderers	44%	30%	27%
13/02/2010	Chelsea	West Ham United	84%	11%	5%
13/02/2010	Stoke City	Aston Villa	27%	30%	44%
13/02/2010	Hull City	Arsenal	9%	16%	75%
14/02/2010	Manchester United	Fulham	81%	13%	6%
14/02/2010	Sunderland	Manchester City	26%	29%	45%
15/02/2010	Liverpool	Portsmouth	82%	12%	6%
16/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Aston Villa	22%	28%	50%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 28 Predictions

A pretty good week last week in the EPL in tipping 6 from 9.  Unfortunately for some stupid reason I didn't enetr in my tip of Liverpool to beat Blackburn, meaning we didn't get the point for it - so officially on footytips I'm ranked 468th though in reality I should be a little higher.

It seems like a week of catch-up game as there are games everyday spread from Saturday through to Wednesday. 

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
6/03/2010	Arsenal	Burnley	87%	9%	4%
6/03/2010	West Ham United	Bolton Wanderers	53%	27%	22%
6/03/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Manchester United	8%	15%	77%
7/03/2010	Everton	Hull City	77%	15%	8%
8/03/2010	Wigan Athletic	Liverpool	12%	22%	67%
9/03/2010	Portsmouth	Birmingham City	40%	30%	30%
9/03/2010	Sunderland	Bolton Wanderers	43%	30%	27%
10/03/2010	Burnley	Stoke City	34%	31%	35%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 27 Predictions

Last week we tipped as expected, getting 7 of the 12 results correct, and drop slightly on the footytips ladder to 420th overall. 

This week saw a mid-week game which Manchester United won easily as expected, and 8 games over the weekend.  The only real surprise being how high we rate Chelsea over Man City, though the bookmakers have priced them pretty close to how I rate them.  Also Fulham I've tipped over Sunderland, who are well favoured with the bookies.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
23/02/2010	Manchester United	West Ham United	83%	11%	5%
27/02/2010	Birmingham City	Wigan Athletic	52%	27%	21%
27/02/2010	Bolton Wanderers	Wolverhampton Wanderers	50%	28%	22%
27/02/2010	Burnley	Portsmouth	41%	30%	29%
27/02/2010	Chelsea	Manchester City	78%	15%	7%
27/02/2010	Stoke City	Arsenal	15%	24%	61%
28/02/2010	Liverpool	Blackburn Rovers	78%	15%	7%
28/02/2010	Sunderland	Fulham	31%	30%	38%
28/02/2010	Tottenham Hotspur	Everton	43%	30%	28%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 26 Predictions

EDIT - weekend matches now updated after mid-week games

Last week we tipped slightly worse than expected, getting 5 of the 10 results correct - yet we moved up slightly to 387th overall on footytips.

this weeks sees 12 games overall, with a couple of mid-week fixtures scheduled for games postponed earlier in the season - we'll update the weekend predictions after the mid-week games have been played.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
16/02/2010	Stoke City	Manchester City	32%	30%	37%
17/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Bolton Wanderers	45%	29%	26%
20/02/2010	Arsenal	Sunderland	85%	11%	5%
20/02/2010	Everton	Manchester United	21%	27%	52%
20/02/2010	Portsmouth	Stoke City	41%	30%	29%
20/02/2010	West Ham United	Hull City	60%	24%	16%
20/02/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Chelsea	8%	15%	78%
21/02/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Bolton Wanderers	50%	28%	22%
21/02/2010	Aston Villa	Burnley	74%	17%	9%
21/02/2010	Fulham	Birmingham City	53%	27%	20%
21/02/2010	Manchester City	Liverpool	25%	29%	46%
21/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Tottenham Hotspur	26%	29%	45%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 25 Predictions

Apologies for missing the overnight games, I had no idea they were on til late at night.  For the record we had 2 of the overnight games tipped correctly.

Last week we tipped pretty much on average, getting 6 of the 11 games correct and holding level on footytips.

The remaining games this week seem fairly straightforward - perhaps surprising that everton are rated as high as they are - we'll soon find out.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
9/02/2010	Manchester City	Bolton Wanderers	63%	23%	14%
9/02/2010	Fulham	Burnley	62%	23%	15%
9/02/2010	Portsmouth	Sunderland	48%	28%	23%
9/02/2010	Wigan Athletic	Stoke City	41%	30%	29%
10/02/2010	Arsenal	Liverpool	46%	29%	25%
10/02/2010	West Ham United	Birmingham City	45%	29%	25%
10/02/2010	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Tottenham Hotspur	22%	28%	51%
10/02/2010	Aston Villa	Manchester United	21%	27%	52%
10/02/2010	Blackburn Rovers	Hull City	58%	25%	17%
10/02/2010	Everton	Chelsea	19%	26%	55%