Thursday, August 12, 2010

EPL 2010-11 Season Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming English Premier League season.

The predictions come about through simulating the entire fixture for the upcoming season 100,000 times, based on ratings that are updated after each game.  Ratings at the start of the season are based on those at the end of last season - so things like off-season signings and pre-season form aren't taken into account.

Again it looks as though Chelsea and Manchester United are the only value for winning the Premiership - this was the case at the start of last season, and before too Long these were pretty safe bets.

Isolating a few other teams - Manchester City and Tottenham I've predicted to not go as well as last year, whereas the Merseysiders in Liverpool and Everton I've lobbed as going better.  Indeed, a quick guide to the points I expect teams to get is pretty close to the average they received in the last two season, so in a sense I expect a sort of regression to the mean rather than sustained improvement.  Tottenham improved 20 points last season, whereas Liverpool dipped 20 points - it's more than likely these teams will not keep those rates going this season.

That Manchester City are third favourite for the Premiership I find laughable - they finished 20 points behind winners Chelsea, and I'd find it impressive if they were able to bridge that gap in the space of one season.  Still, I suppose stranger things have happened.

TeamPointsPr Win Pr Win (Excl Big 4)
Chelsea88.5 45.4%N/A
Manchester United87.8 41.1%N/A
Arsenal77.4 7.5%N/A
Liverpool74.9 4.8%N/A
Everton65.30.6% 35.9%
Tottenham Hotspur61.5 0.3%21.8%
Aston Villa60.8 0.2%19.5%
Manchester City60 0.2%17.3%
Blackburn Rovers47.2 0.0%1.8%
Fulham45.40.0% 1.2%
Stoke City43.1 0.0%0.7%
Birmingham City41.5 0.0%0.5%
West Ham United40.4 0.0%0.3%
Sunderland39.1 0.0%0.3%
Newcastle United38.1 0.0%0.2%
West Bromwich Albion38 0.0%0.2%
Bolton Wanderers37.9 0.0%0.2%
Wolverhampton Wanderers36.6 0.0%0.1%
Wigan Athletic34.4 0.0%0.1%
Blackpool32.4 0.0%0.0%

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