This week sees the model agreeing with the bookmakers in just about every game - last night we actually would have had a small bet on Essendon so good signs there. A couple of potential bets include Brisbane at home tonight against Collingwood, and Freo at home tomorrow against North Melbourne.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Venue | Prob 1 | Prob 2 |
| Essendon | Western Bulldogs | Telstra Dome | 29% | 70% |
| Geelong | Melbourne | Skilled Stadium | 70% | 29% |
| Port Adelaide | Richmond | AAMI Stadium | 80% | 19% |
| Brisbane | Collingwood | Gabba | 37% | 62% |
| St Kilda | Adelaide | Telstra Dome | 83% | 16% |
| Hawthorn | Sydney | MCG | 74% | 25% |
| Carlton | West Coast | Telstra Dome | 73% | 25% |
| Fremantle | North Melbourne | Subiaco | 93% | 7% |
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