AFL 2010 Season - Round 5 Predictions

Another disastrous week last round, only getting 3 tips right again.  This has seen us revisit the model and tweak it's settings so that it's less dependant on the players selected and moreso on the overall team's form - this would have seen us land 7 tips last week instead of the 3, and 21 overall for the season so far - so I'm happy to go with that.

And thankfully this week we're tipping all the favourites.  We'll probably have a couple of small bets on Melbourne and Carlton which I'm happy enough with - otherwise no surprises at all.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Prob 1	Prob 2
Western Bulldogs	Adelaide	Telstra Dome	80%	19%
Sydney	West Coast	SCG	84%	16%
Melbourne	Brisbane	MCG	41%	57%
Port Adelaide	St Kilda	AAMI Stadium	29%	69%
Collingwood	Essendon	MCG	66%	32%
Hawthorn	North Melbourne	Aurora Stadium	69%	29%
Fremantle	Richmond	Subiaco	80%	19%
Carlton	Geelong	MCG	34%	65%

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 5 Predictions

A decent week last week saw us get 5 of the 7 tips correct, and also good away bets on the line on the Lions and Sharks.  A couple of long shots managed to win in the Reds and Cheetahs, but these things are expected from time to time.

A lot of close games this week, at least as far as my predictions go.  It looks like we'll be betting on a lot of away teams with the line at this stage - I'm happy with that because as previous work has shown these are the most profitable bets to be had in Super 14s.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Home Prob	Away Prob
12/03/2010	Chiefs	Crusaders	49%	48%
12/03/2010	Waratahs	Lions	91%	8%
13/03/2010	Brumbies	Sharks	55%	42%
13/03/2010	Bulls	Highlanders	89%	10%
13/03/2010	Stormers	Hurricanes	47%	50%
13/03/2010	Reds	W Force	49%	47%

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 5 Predictions

Another very nice week on the tipping last week, getting 7 out of the 10 results correctly.  Currently sitting on 61% tipping success for the season, higher than I'd expected to be, so if we can keep this rate up I'll be more than happy.  A break-even week on the betting no thanks to betting on Arsenal away at Manchester City who are on the rise.

A couple of really interesting games this week - Chelsea and Manchester United at home to up and coming teams Tottenham and Manchester City - the games made even more interesting given they are both local derbies.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
19/09/2009	Arsenal	Wigan Athletic	82%	12%	6%
19/09/2009	Aston Villa	Portsmouth	66%	21%	13%
19/09/2009	Bolton Wanderers	Stoke City	46%	29%	25%
19/09/2009	Burnley	Sunderland	46%	29%	25%
19/09/2009	Everton	Blackburn Rovers	62%	23%	15%
19/09/2009	Hull City	Birmingham City	38%	30%	32%
19/09/2009	West Ham United	Liverpool	15%	24%	61%
19/09/2009	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Fulham	34%	31%	36%
20/09/2009	Chelsea	Tottenham Hotspur	78%	15%	7%
20/09/2009	Manchester United	Manchester City	80%	13%	7%

Total tips for the season: 28 from 46 (61%)
Return on Investment for the season: +14%

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 5 Predictions

Round 4 highlighted that form counts for nothing in the A-League, with undefeated Gold Coast losing away to Newcastle, and Melbourne losing away to lowly Perth. Still, the Newcastle win came on the back of a large suggested bet on them, so happy to trade-off some tips for profit.

Following are the Round 5 predictions - it's worth noting that the Central Coast vs Perth game is held in somewhat neutral Canberra. To my knowledge there hasn't been a neutral venue in the A-League before, hence I can't properly model what happens at a neutral venue. I've been able to tweek parameters though as though there is no home ground advantage, so we'll see how we go. For what it's worth, Central Coast would have been rated 46% had it been held at their home ground.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
3/09/2009	Melbourne Victory	Newcastle Jets	Telstra Dome	49%	25%	26%
4/09/2009	New Zealand	Adelaide United	Westpac Stadium	37%	27%	36%
4/09/2009	Central Coast Mariners	Perth Glory	Canberra Stadium	40%	27%	34%
5/09/2009	Gold Coast	Sydney FC	Skilled Park	42%	26%	32%
5/09/2009	North Queensland	Queensland Roar	Dairy Farmers Stadium	35%	27%	39%

Total tips for the season: 9 from 20 (45%)