Wednesday, September 2, 2009

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 5 Predictions

Round 4 highlighted that form counts for nothing in the A-League, with undefeated Gold Coast losing away to Newcastle, and Melbourne losing away to lowly Perth. Still, the Newcastle win came on the back of a large suggested bet on them, so happy to trade-off some tips for profit.

Following are the Round 5 predictions - it's worth noting that the Central Coast vs Perth game is held in somewhat neutral Canberra. To my knowledge there hasn't been a neutral venue in the A-League before, hence I can't properly model what happens at a neutral venue. I've been able to tweek parameters though as though there is no home ground advantage, so we'll see how we go. For what it's worth, Central Coast would have been rated 46% had it been held at their home ground.

DateTeam 1Team 2VenuePr T1Pr DrawPr T2
3/09/2009Melbourne VictoryNewcastle JetsTelstra Dome49% 25% 26%
4/09/2009New ZealandAdelaide UnitedWestpac Stadium37% 27% 36%
4/09/2009Central Coast MarinersPerth GloryCanberra Stadium40% 27% 34%
5/09/2009Gold CoastSydney FCSkilled Park42% 26% 32%
5/09/2009North QueenslandQueensland RoarDairy Farmers Stadium35% 27% 39%

Total tips for the season: 9 from 20 (45%)

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