Friday, September 4, 2009

AFL 2009 Season - Finals Week 1 Predictions

5 tips in Round 22 to round off the home-and-away season, for a final figure of 123 tips (69.9%) overall which is quite respectable for a start-up model.  As I mentioned in the season review we should only see this figure to increase when I improve the model in the off-season.

In the meantime here are my predictions for week 1 of the finals series.  No surprises for 3 of games, obviously the Cats vs Dogs game is an eye-opener with the Dogs rated so high.  Again this is down to the profile of players selected, a couple of nuances in certain players profiles sees the massive probability here.  We rated the Dogs highly in their last two game against more fancied opposition and they managed to win these, so again will be interesting to see how this game pans out.  For the record I don't think I'll be betting heavily on this game, or indeed through the finals.
Team 1Team 2 VenuePr 1Pr 2
AdelaideEssendonAAMI Stadium  79.3%  19.4% 
GeelongWestern BulldogsMCG  7.9%  91.4% 
BrisbaneCarltonGabba  78.2%  20.4% 
St KildaCollingwoodMCG  68.7%  29.6% 

Total tips for the season: 123 from 176 (69.9%)
Total tips for finals: N/A

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