This week certainly doesn't do much for my confidence, with the model tipping outsiders in Essendon, North Melbourne and richmond, and also tipping Adelaide by a huge margin in a game the bookies have 50/50. Still, massive profits were made last year on rounds like this, so let's hope nothing as changed since then!
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Venue | Prob 1 | Prob 2 |
| West Coast | Essendon | Subiaco | 47% | 51% |
| North Melbourne | Sydney | Telstra Dome | 57% | 42% |
| Adelaide | Carlton | AAMI Stadium | 86% | 14% |
| Collingwood | Hawthorn | MCG | 60% | 38% |
| Brisbane | Western Bulldogs | Gabba | 27% | 71% |
| Richmond | Melbourne | MCG | 51% | 48% |
| Geelong | Port Adelaide | Skilled Stadium | 96% | 3% |
| St Kilda | Fremantle | Telstra Dome | 72% | 27% |
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