Friday, February 12, 2010

Super 14 2010 Season - Round 1 Predictions

The Super 14 season starts tonight, so time to start publishing my predictions.  Last year I posted some analysis here on how well the model had gone, and also left some suggestions as too how I'd update the model.  Well it's fair to say it was a productive summer, because I haven't touched the model since then.

Still, the model as it was then seemed to be firing off some very nice profits, keeping two things in mind.  Firstly, betting on away teams turned out more profitable then betting on home teams, and secondly it seemed to take a couple of weeks for the model to find its feet before consistent profits started.

On that last point, a couple of off-season changes won't automatically be reflected in the model, especially for these Round 1 predictions.  The Western Force for example have been heavily hit by injuries and players leaving, so likely their odds below aren't a true reflection of their ability just yet.

DateHome Team Away TeamHome ProbAway Prob
12/02/2010Blues Hurricanes46%50%
12/02/2010W Force Brumbies49%47%
13/02/2010Cheetahs Bulls20%78%
13/02/2010Crusaders Highlanders89%10%
13/02/2010Reds Waratahs22%76%
14/02/2010Lions Stormers36%61%
14/02/2010Sharks Chiefs65%33%

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