Here are my Brownlow predictions for this year. Bit of a strange one this year as I more or less only rate 2 players any chance to win it - Swan and Ablett.
This year I've got 50 individual player stats at my disposal, for every player in every game. Obviously not all of these stats will come into the model but it is a big increase in previous years where I had maybe a dozen stats.
If you download the link below it should open a spreadsheet with the usual Brownlow betting options available - overall winners, number of winners, winning numbers of votes, top votegetter in the team, and various head to head and group betting options. With a lot more effort then it would seem it takes, I've been able to provide - for every player in every game - their chance of polling 3, 2 or 1 votes - which obviously leads to their expected votes per game, and also the chance that player receives any votes. With this you can narrow down to certain players, and on the night track to see if they are ahead or behind expectations - potentially useful for those who want to bet in-play.
Like I say, never before has my model come up with only 2 possibilities, though I've looked game by game and seem pretty happy with what the model is coming up with. I'm pretty hesitant to release these because of this situation, but my model has been pretty good in the past - as always though I can't stress highly enough that these predictions should at best be used as a guide, and certainly not the be all and end all in terms of placing your own Brownlow bets.
So how has the model gone in the past? Pretty good if I say so myself. Last year I rated Ablett a $1.33 chance - much shorter than the $3 available on the day. There's also a lot of value to be found in the exotic options - for example last year I rated Winderlich a $5.80 chance to win Essendon's count, big value seeing as I was able to snap up $34 on the day - even though he ended up sharing the honours with Jobe Watson, it was still a great result.
Anyway have a browse and if there's any queries please let me know. Also if there are any other betting options you'd like to see let me know too and I'll do my best to update the sheet.
2010 Brownlow Medal Predictions
Showing posts with label Medal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Medal. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Thursday, September 24, 2009
AFL 2009 Season - Brownlow Medal Results
An extremely successful year was had this year betting on the Brownlow medal courtesy of the predictions released on this site - thanks of course to Gary Ablett winning at odds of $3 (at least when I placed my bet), massive value when I rated him a 75% chance to win. The only real downside was Dane Swan not polling as well as I - and most other people expected - this took out a few multiple bets I'd placed, but nonetheless a multitude of other bets out there more than made up for this.
A list of all the bets that returned a profit are listed here:
A couple of missed opportunities were there as well - the first was Jonathan Brown to finish in the top 5 overall. I rated him 5th in my predictions, which is exactly where he placed at massive odds of $18.
Another was Dane Swan - he was paying $1.03 to top Collingwood's votes, whereas I rated him 91% chance, so under the odds - this represented a very nice laying opportunity where you could have taken on someone else's massive bet for a very minor risk - ie if you took $1,000 of someone's money, you would have only risked paying out $30 had Dane Swan topped Collingwood. Turns out he didn't, so you would have pocketed the $1,000.
Still it was a very successful event overall, and in the days since I've come across a plethora of detailed player statistics that should only improve the model and it's results. And as always, if not well we still have a model that is extremely capable.
So the only piece of AFL prediction left for the year will be the grand final, which I'll upload after the final team selections are announced. At this stage on team form alone I'd rateGeelong
A list of all the bets that returned a profit are listed here:
- Gary Ablett to win - 75% @ $3
- Jimmy Bartel to top group comprised of Cooney, B Harvey, Deledio, Jobe Watson and Scott Thompson - 21% @ $7.5
- Bernie Vince to top group comprised of Adam Selwood, Rich, Akermanis, Hodge and Hasleby - 66% @ $2
- Fevola to top group comprised of Koschitzke, Franklin, LeCras, Pavlich and Tredrea - 75% @ $3
- Vince to top
- Brown to top
- Winderlich to top Essendon - 17% @ $34
- Pavlich to top Fremantle - 57% @ $4
- Ablett to top
- LeCras to top West Coast - 34% @ 3.25
A couple of missed opportunities were there as well - the first was Jonathan Brown to finish in the top 5 overall. I rated him 5th in my predictions, which is exactly where he placed at massive odds of $18.
Another was Dane Swan - he was paying $1.03 to top Collingwood's votes, whereas I rated him 91% chance, so under the odds - this represented a very nice laying opportunity where you could have taken on someone else's massive bet for a very minor risk - ie if you took $1,000 of someone's money, you would have only risked paying out $30 had Dane Swan topped Collingwood. Turns out he didn't, so you would have pocketed the $1,000.
Still it was a very successful event overall, and in the days since I've come across a plethora of detailed player statistics that should only improve the model and it's results. And as always, if not well we still have a model that is extremely capable.
So the only piece of AFL prediction left for the year will be the grand final, which I'll upload after the final team selections are announced. At this stage on team form alone I'd rate
Monday, September 21, 2009
AFL 2009 Season - Brownlow Medal Predictions
Every year for the past few years I've compiled Brownlow Medal predictions with reasonable success. Every game I rate each player on their chance to get 3, 2, or 1 votes - then based on these probabilities I simulate the season 30,000 times in order to find the average number of votes for each player over the whole season, and their respective chance to win the medal.
A variety of statistics are fed into the Brownlow Model - for example, each player's kicks, marks, handballs, goals, inside 50's and even the number of free kicks they give away are found to be significant predictors of how many votes they will receive. However the two most significant predictors are the margin your team wins by, and how many Supercoach points you receive in a game. The latter is by far the major pointer to how well a player is likely to poll, and explains why I rate Gary Ablett so highly this year, as he has by far amassed the most Supercoach points per game played.
Given that the entire season is simulated, it enables me to produce a variety predictions, not just who will win the league. Other stats I've produced include the likelihood of there being multiple winners, how many votes the winner is likely to poll, various head to head and group propositions, and who is likely to poll the most votes for each of the teams.
One point worth noting - these predictions are all based on cold, hard, observable statistics. There's no accounting for other reasons a player might poll well - such as being based in the midfield, having blonde hair, or being named Adam Goodes for example. All other things being equal, a midfielder kicking for goals will likely poll higher than a forward kicking 4 goals.
So here are the predictions for this year - if there is anything else you'd like to see let me know and I should be able to work it out. For what it's worth I rated last year's winner Adam Cooney a 15% chance to win - he paid $14 so this represents close to double what I rated him, good value indeed
Click on the link to download a spreadsheet of advanced predictions
2009 Brownlow Medal Predictions
A variety of statistics are fed into the Brownlow Model - for example, each player's kicks, marks, handballs, goals, inside 50's and even the number of free kicks they give away are found to be significant predictors of how many votes they will receive. However the two most significant predictors are the margin your team wins by, and how many Supercoach points you receive in a game. The latter is by far the major pointer to how well a player is likely to poll, and explains why I rate Gary Ablett so highly this year, as he has by far amassed the most Supercoach points per game played.
Given that the entire season is simulated, it enables me to produce a variety predictions, not just who will win the league. Other stats I've produced include the likelihood of there being multiple winners, how many votes the winner is likely to poll, various head to head and group propositions, and who is likely to poll the most votes for each of the teams.
One point worth noting - these predictions are all based on cold, hard, observable statistics. There's no accounting for other reasons a player might poll well - such as being based in the midfield, having blonde hair, or being named Adam Goodes for example. All other things being equal, a midfielder kicking for goals will likely poll higher than a forward kicking 4 goals.
So here are the predictions for this year - if there is anything else you'd like to see let me know and I should be able to work it out. For what it's worth I rated last year's winner Adam Cooney a 15% chance to win - he paid $14 so this represents close to double what I rated him, good value indeed
Click on the link to download a spreadsheet of advanced predictions
2009 Brownlow Medal Predictions
| Player | Avg Votes | % Chance |
| Gary Ablett | 26.8 | 75.08% |
| Dane Swan | 22.4 | 21.93% |
| Nick Dal Santo | 18.2 | 4.84% |
| Leigh Montagna | 17.8 | 3.56% |
| Jonathan Brown | 15.9 | 0.85% |
| Brendon Goddard | 14.1 | 0.64% |
| Paul Chapman | 15.1 | 0.38% |
| Alan Didak | 14.4 | 0.27% |
| Lenny Hayes | 12.3 | 0.19% |
| Chris Judd | 12.4 | 0.18% |
| Nick Riewoldt | 12.1 | 0.17% |
| Marc Murphy | 11.5 | 0.13% |
| Adam Goodes | 12.5 | 0.06% |
| Bernie Vince | 10.6 | 0.05% |
| Brendan Fevola | 12.4 | 0.03% |
| Luke Power | 10.2 | 0.03% |
| Matthew Boyd | 9.5 | 0.03% |
| Joel Selwood | 10.0 | 0.02% |
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