Wednesday, September 15, 2010

AFL 2010 Season - Brownlow Medal Predictions

Here are my Brownlow predictions for this year. Bit of a strange one this year as I more or less only rate 2 players any chance to win it - Swan and Ablett.

This year I've got 50 individual player stats at my disposal, for every player in every game. Obviously not all of these stats will come into the model but it is a big increase in previous years where I had maybe a dozen stats.

If you download the link below it should open a spreadsheet with the usual Brownlow betting options available - overall winners, number of winners, winning numbers of votes, top votegetter in the team, and various head to head and group betting options. With a lot more effort then it would seem it takes, I've been able to provide - for every player in every game - their chance of polling 3, 2 or 1 votes - which obviously leads to their expected votes per game, and also the chance that player receives any votes. With this you can narrow down to certain players, and on the night track to see if they are ahead or behind expectations - potentially useful for those who want to bet in-play.

Like I say, never before has my model come up with only 2 possibilities, though I've looked game by game and seem pretty happy with what the model is coming up with. I'm pretty hesitant to release these because of this situation, but my model has been pretty good in the past - as always though I can't stress highly enough that these predictions should at best be used as a guide, and certainly not the be all and end all in terms of placing your own Brownlow bets.

So how has the model gone in the past? Pretty good if I say so myself. Last year I rated Ablett a $1.33 chance - much shorter than the $3 available on the day. There's also a lot of value to be found in the exotic options - for example last year I rated Winderlich a $5.80 chance to win Essendon's count, big value seeing as I was able to snap up $34 on the day - even though he ended up sharing the honours with Jobe Watson, it was still a great result.

Anyway have a browse and if there's any queries please let me know. Also if there are any other betting options you'd like to see let me know too and I'll do my best to update the sheet.

2010 Brownlow Medal Predictions

Player Exp Votes% Chance
Dane Swan - CW32.5 50.2%
Gary Ablett - GE32.3 49.5%
Luke Hodge - HW19.0Daylight
Leigh Montagna - SK18.3Daylight
Matthew Boyd - WB17.3Daylight
Chris Judd - CA16.2Daylight
Brent Harvey - KA15.7Daylight
Brendon Goddard - SK15.2 Daylight
Paul Chapman - GE13.9Daylight
Michael Barlow - FR13.6Daylight
Jonathan Brown - BL13.2Daylight
Scott Thompson - AD12.4Daylight
Joel Selwood - GE11.9Daylight
Aaron Sandilands - FR11.3 Daylight
Matthew Pavlich - FR11.2 Daylight
Adam Cooney - WB11.0Daylight
Adam Goodes - SY10.9Daylight
Lance Franklin - HW10.8Daylight
Scott Pendlebury - CW10.6 Daylight
Nick Dal Santo - SK10.6Daylight
Andrew Swallow - KA10.2Daylight
Kieren Jack - SY10.2Daylight
Jobe Watson - ES10.0Daylight

1 comment:

  1. Hi Mate,

    I can't download your spreadsheet are you able to give me a quick snapshot of your best bets for the team votes