Friday, August 21, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 2 Predictions - Part 2

The model performed quite well in the midweek games, tipping 4 out of 6 results correctly - taking the season tally to 8 correct predictions from 16 games - meaning as with the A-League we have reached the 50% mark, from which we should only improve.

A bit of analysis has come up with what seems to be a profitable betting strategy for the EPL model. Basically for teams playing at home, if they are rated at least 25% chance to win, and have a 15% overlay, then this becomes a bet. For away teams, provided they are at least a 30% chance to win, then any advantage over the bookmaker becomes a bet. It is rare to bet on a drawn outcome given, so the best advice would be to just leave these alone. For more information on how to calculate if an advantage over the bookie exists, and to work out an optimal amount to bet, refer to my earlier posts on the Kelly betting criteria.

So without further ado here are the games for the upcoming weekend of English Premier League matches.
DateHome TeamAway TeamPr HomePr DrawPr Away
23/08/2009ArsenalPortsmouth81% 13% 6%
23/08/2009Birmingham CityStoke City44% 30% 27%
23/08/2009Hull CityBolton Wanderers35% 31% 34%
23/08/2009Manchester CityWolverhampton Wanderers58% 25% 17%
23/08/2009SunderlandBlackburn Rovers36% 31% 34%
23/08/2009Wigan AthleticManchester United10% 18% 73%
23/08/2009BurnleyEverton21% 27% 51%
24/08/2009FulhamChelsea13% 22% 65%
24/08/2009West Ham UnitedTottenham Hotspur38% 30% 32%
24/08/2009LiverpoolAston Villa73% 17% 9%

Total tips for the season: 8 from 16 (50%)

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