EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 2 Predictions - Part 2

The model performed quite well in the midweek games, tipping 4 out of 6 results correctly - taking the season tally to 8 correct predictions from 16 games - meaning as with the A-League we have reached the 50% mark, from which we should only improve.

A bit of analysis has come up with what seems to be a profitable betting strategy for the EPL model. Basically for teams playing at home, if they are rated at least 25% chance to win, and have a 15% overlay, then this becomes a bet. For away teams, provided they are at least a 30% chance to win, then any advantage over the bookmaker becomes a bet. It is rare to bet on a drawn outcome given, so the best advice would be to just leave these alone. For more information on how to calculate if an advantage over the bookie exists, and to work out an optimal amount to bet, refer to my earlier posts on the Kelly betting criteria.

So without further ado here are the games for the upcoming weekend of English Premier League matches.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
23/08/2009	Arsenal	Portsmouth	81%	13%	6%
23/08/2009	Birmingham City	Stoke City	44%	30%	27%
23/08/2009	Hull City	Bolton Wanderers	35%	31%	34%
23/08/2009	Manchester City	Wolverhampton Wanderers	58%	25%	17%
23/08/2009	Sunderland	Blackburn Rovers	36%	31%	34%
23/08/2009	Wigan Athletic	Manchester United	10%	18%	73%
23/08/2009	Burnley	Everton	21%	27%	51%
24/08/2009	Fulham	Chelsea	13%	22%	65%
24/08/2009	West Ham United	Tottenham Hotspur	38%	30%	32%
24/08/2009	Liverpool	Aston Villa	73%	17%	9%

Total tips for the season: 8 from 16 (50%)