Without going into too much detail, the entire season is simulated thousands of times. The ratings assigned to each team are updated based on the results of each game - so if a lower ranked team wins more games than expected, it's ranking throughout the simulation will increase to reflect this - and the converse for a higher ranked team.
Not too many surprises here, things look reasonably similar to last year. One point worth discussing is Manchester City - they've made quite a few off-season signings so the bookies rate them a lot better than I do. As my model is team based (as opposed to player based), all we can do is sit back and see if their performance follows the hype. If they start doing well their ratings will soon reflect this.
When comparing these probabilities against the bookies odds, it looks as though Manchester United and Chelsea are actually the only teams showing value - it doesn't often happen that the favourites in these types of markets end up being the value bets, but there you go.
Anyway I'll update this table as the season goes on and compare back to this original table to see how close or far these predictions were.
| Team | Points | Pr Win |
| Manchester United | 87.7 | 40.5% |
| Chelsea | 86.7 | 34.8% |
| Liverpool | 83.9 | 22.0% |
| Arsenal | 78.3 | 8.3% |
| Everton | 64.9 | 0.5% |
| Aston Villa | 58.1 | 0.1% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 53.4 | 0.0% |
| Manchester City | 49.3 | 0.0% |
| Fulham | 47.9 | 0.0% |
| West Ham United | 46.4 | 0.0% |
| Blackburn Rovers | 46.5 | 0.0% |
| Portsmouth | 43.6 | 0.0% |
| Bolton Wanderers | 42.5 | 0.0% |
| Stoke City | 40.3 | 0.0% |
| Wigan Athletic | 39.4 | 0.0% |
| Birmingham City | 38.4 | 0.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 38.2 | 0.0% |
| Burnley | 36.7 | 0.0% |
| Sunderland | 35.2 | 0.0% |
| Hull City | 32.4 | 0.0% |
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