Thursday, August 6, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season Predictions

Following are my predictions on how I expect the English Premier League season to pan out.

Without going into too much detail, the entire season is simulated thousands of times. The ratings assigned to each team are updated based on the results of each game - so if a lower ranked team wins more games than expected, it's ranking throughout the simulation will increase to reflect this - and the converse for a higher ranked team.

Not too many surprises here, things look reasonably similar to last year. One point worth discussing is Manchester City - they've made quite a few off-season signings so the bookies rate them a lot better than I do. As my model is team based (as opposed to player based), all we can do is sit back and see if their performance follows the hype. If they start doing well their ratings will soon reflect this.

When comparing these probabilities against the bookies odds, it looks as though Manchester United and Chelsea are actually the only teams showing value - it doesn't often happen that the favourites in these types of markets end up being the value bets, but there you go.

Anyway I'll update this table as the season goes on and compare back to this original table to see how close or far these predictions were.

TeamPointsPr Win
Manchester United 87.7 40.5%
Chelsea 86.7 34.8%
Liverpool 83.9 22.0%
Arsenal 78.3 8.3%
Everton 64.9 0.5%
Aston Villa 58.1 0.1%
Tottenham Hotspur 53.4 0.0%
Manchester City 49.3 0.0%
Fulham 47.9 0.0%
West Ham United 46.4 0.0%
Blackburn Rovers 46.5 0.0%
Portsmouth 43.6 0.0%
Bolton Wanderers 42.5 0.0%
Stoke City 40.3 0.0%
Wigan Athletic 39.4 0.0%
Birmingham City 38.4 0.0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers 38.2 0.0%
Burnley 36.7 0.0%
Sunderland 35.2 0.0%
Hull City 32.4 0.0%

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