Wednesday, August 12, 2009

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 1 Predictions

The time has come to put up up the first lot of match predictions for the 2009/10 season of the English Premier League.

This EPL model has performed extremely well in the past - for the 2008/09 season a model was built using data from the 5 seasons prior and applied to 08/09 season - resulting in 214 correct tips, out of 380 games for a success rate of 56.3%. - this figure might not sound like much for those more used to AFL / NRL-type tipping, but consider in soccer there are 3 possible outcomes to tip from.

To put this in perspective, last year on the tipping website there were 33,400 people in the EPL tipping comp for last season. As yet I cannot find the number of tips the winner ended up on, but 2nd place finished on 212 tips - so there's every chance this model on 214 tips would have finished on top.

Of course the other measure of this model's success is profitability. Betting on all teams with an overlay (an advantage over the bookies price) saw a Return on Investment of 13%, a pretty good figure in anyone's books. However if a couple of simple filters are applied then this figure jumps to 36%, which is simply outstanding.

Of course talk is cheap, it's easy to boast about how the model has gone in the past - if this season's figures come close to last year's I'll be more than happy. So without further delay here are my picks for the first week of the Premier League.

DateHome TeamAway TeamPr HomePr DrawPr Away
15/08/2009Aston VillaWigan Athletic 65% 22% 13%
15/08/2009Blackburn RoversManchester City 43% 30% 28%
15/08/2009Bolton WanderersSunderland 54% 27% 19%
15/08/2009ChelseaHull City 91% 7% 3%
15/08/2009EvertonArsenal 32% 30% 38%
15/08/2009PortsmouthFulham 41% 30% 29%
15/08/2009Stoke CityBurnley 50% 28% 22%
15/08/2009Wolverhampton WanderersWest Ham United 37% 30% 33%
16/08/2009Manchester UnitedBirmingham City 88% 8% 4%
16/08/2009Tottenham HotspurLiverpool 18% 26% 56%

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