Wednesday, August 5, 2009



If you found this site then you must like free money almost as much as I do.

Over the years I've developed models predicting outcomes various sports - with AFL, soccer and horse racing being the most prominent. I've finally decided to create this website and publish the predictions that have been profitable over the years, with the aim to track how are faring going forward.

I currently have models for the English Premier League and the Hyundai A-League, as well as the AFL which I'll aim to publish before each round of matches, along with odds for these matches and where possible suggested bets. As rounds are completed then I'll update the results for the week along with any profits / losses, as well as keep a running total throughout the season.

Also each year I come out with Brownlow predictions - from the usual overall winner through to who will post the most votes for each club. These have found varying degrees of success over the years - last year I rated Adam Cooney around 15% chance to win - paying $14 this equated to some good value - so I'll be posting those this year as well.

Horse racing has been something I've modelled for around 5 years now. It is difficult, though by no means impossible, to consistently make a profit from this given the myriad of factors and variables that come into each race. As the years go on I collect more and more data, and my modelling knowledge improves as well. When I feel comfortable with the long term success of the model then I'll post my predictions here as well, with the aim to post on a daily basis as the final fields are announced.

The modelling process I've recently developed for AFL and soccer can be reasonably easily translated through to other sports. My short term aim is to get models up and running for the NRL as well as the major US sports. Tennis modelling is also a long term aim – I see this as a huge market given there are matches almost every day of the year, and as it is a one-on-one match up – as opposed to team based with many influencing factors - I feel this has great potential for modelling and hopefully for profiting in the long term.

Anyway enough of the introductions. Given the A-League season kicks off tomorrow night I’ll put my predictions up shortly. EPL kicks off on the weekend so those predictions will appear before then as well. And once the AFL teams are announced for the weekend (yes, the players that are picked are factored into the AFL model) then they will be published. Stay tuned!

No comments:

Post a Comment