Wednesday, August 5, 2009

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 1 Predictions

Here are my first lot of predictions, for Round 1 of the Australian A-League 2009/10 Season. Apologies for the formatting, it took me ages just to get it looking this good.

A few points worth considering regarding the A-League model in general:

  • The new teams of Gold Coast and North Queensland are rated as an average team as they enter the league - that is, there will be better and worse rated teams than these two at the start of this season. As they play more games their ratings will update accordingly and more accurately reflect where they sit with regards to other teams, so be aware of this for the first few rounds
  • In general the home ground advantage isn't as significant as it would be in say the English Premier League.
  • There is a lot more variability in the A-league than more well-established leagues. It's rare for teams to perform consisently well throughout the season - and moreso from season-to-season. Take Melbourne for example - in the four seasons so far they have finished 7th, winner, 5th and winner again. Newcastle won in 2008 yet finished last in 2009.
  • Given this, it's proven hard to make a profit betting on the A-League. Analysis has shown that only betting on home teams with a significant edge over the bookmaker's price was profitable last season

As the season goes on I'll update how many games have been tipped correctly and try and compare against any expert tipsters who publish there selections. I'm a bit wary of posting odds and betting results as like I've said A-League is just to volatile to bet on at the moment.

DateTeam 1Team 2VenueProb T1Prob DrawProb T2
Thu, Aug 06, 2009Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast MarinersTelstra Dome, Melbourne51.2% 24.7% 24.1%
Fri, Aug 07, 2009Adelaide UnitedPerth GloryHindmarsh Stadium49.9% 25.0% 25.0%
Sat, Aug 08, 2009North QueenslandSydney FCDairy Farmers Stadium43.0% 26.4% 30.7%
Sat, Aug 08, 2009Queensland RoarGold CoastSuncorp Stadium47.9% 25.5% 26.6%
Sun, Aug 09, 2009Newcastle JetsNew ZealandEnergyAustralia Stadium43.7% 26.3% 30.0%

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