Thursday, August 20, 2009

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 3 Predictions

A decent week of tipping in week 2, tipping all home teams and having 3 of them win. That brings the season average up to 50% so far - if we can stay above that figure for the rest of the season I'll be happy.

A bit of analysis has shown that there is some consistent profit to be made by betting on home teams where the probability of winning is less than 55%, yet still have an advantage over the bookie (see earlier posts regarding the Kelly betting method for further discussions on this). Having said that, I'd avoid betting on games involving Gold Coast or North Queensland for a while yet until their ratings stabilise somewhat.

For the first time this season the model has thrown up a tip on an away team. The home team dominance a testament to the fact that given then fickle nature of form in the A-League, even a slim case of home-team advantage will win out.

DateTeam 1Team 2VenuePr T1Pr DrawPr T2
21/08/2009Adelaide UnitedGold CoastHindmarsh Stadium43% 26% 31%
22/08/2009Central Coast MarinersSydney FCBluetongue Stadium40% 27% 33%
22/08/2009North QueenslandMelbourne VictoryDairy Farmers Stadium36% 27% 38%
23/08/2009Queensland RoarNew ZealandSuncorp Stadium51% 25% 24%
23/08/2009Perth GloryNewcastle JetsMembers Equity Stadium37% 27% 36%

Total tips for the season: 5 from 10 (50%)

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