AFL 2009 Season - Round 20 Predictions

Well Murphy's Law of tipping came to the fore in the AFL last week - all season the model had not tipped less than 4 tips in a week, but publish them online and sure enough I only get 2.5 correct for the round - the biggest disappointment of course tipping Western Bulldogs as a 97% chance to win and having them lose - to paraphrase The Simpsons, when you're right 97% of the time, you're wrong 3% of the time.

Still, despite having a relatively big bet on the Western Bulldogs (at $1.08!) I was able to turn a nice profit thanks to good wins by supposed underdogs in Carlton, St Kilda and Fremantle. Had Essondon not lost a big lead to end up drawing after the siren then the profit would have been even higher.

So here are the model's predictions for Round 20 of the AFL. A couple of surprising probs throwing up big overlays, mainly due to the team's selected for this week. Best of luck to those following.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr 1	Pr 2
Hawthorn	Adelaide	MCG	78.7%	20.0%
Richmond	Collingwood	MCG	22.2%	76.3%
West Coast	North Melbourne	Subiaco	57.2%	40.7%
Brisbane	Western Bulldogs	Gabba	29.2%	69.0%
Sydney	Geelong	ANZ Stadium	55.4%	42.5%
Melbourne	Fremantle	MCG	16.7%	82.1%
Port Adelaide	Carlton	AAMI Stadium	65.6%	32.6%
Essendon	St Kilda	Telstra Dome	22.5%	76.0%

Total tips for the season: 108 from 152 (71.1%)