Friday, August 14, 2009

AFL 2009 Season - Round 20 Predictions

Well Murphy's Law of tipping came to the fore in the AFL last week - all season the model had not tipped less than 4 tips in a week, but publish them online and sure enough I only get 2.5 correct for the round - the biggest disappointment of course tipping Western Bulldogs as a 97% chance to win and having them lose - to paraphrase The Simpsons, when you're right 97% of the time, you're wrong 3% of the time.

Still, despite having a relatively big bet on the Western Bulldogs (at $1.08!) I was able to turn a nice profit thanks to good wins by supposed underdogs in Carlton, St Kilda and Fremantle. Had Essondon not lost a big lead to end up drawing after the siren then the profit would have been even higher.

So here are the model's predictions for Round 20 of the AFL. A couple of surprising probs throwing up big overlays, mainly due to the team's selected for this week. Best of luck to those following.

Team 1Team 2VenuePr 1Pr 2
HawthornAdelaideMCG78.7% 20.0%
RichmondCollingwoodMCG22.2% 76.3%
West CoastNorth MelbourneSubiaco57.2% 40.7%
BrisbaneWestern BulldogsGabba29.2% 69.0%
SydneyGeelongANZ Stadium55.4% 42.5%
MelbourneFremantleMCG16.7% 82.1%
Port AdelaideCarltonAAMI Stadium65.6% 32.6%
EssendonSt KildaTelstra Dome22.5% 76.0%

Total tips for the season: 108 from 152 (71.1%)

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