Friday, August 21, 2009

AFL 2009 Season - Round 21 Predictions

Murphy's Law still kicking around - only managing to tip 3 winners last week, combined with the 2.5 winners from round 19, when the lowest round I had prior to making these tips public was 4.

Anyway we soldier on, though looking at the first game has cause to make me nervous, having the Western Bulldogs as an 85% chance against Geelong - mainly due to the profile of players selected. The player-based aspect of the model will be getting a serious overall in the off-season, but as it stands it is sitting on 111 tips so far, so hopefully this game is an exception rather than the rule. This game aside, the other predictions look quite reasonable.

Team 1Team 2VenuePr 1Pr 2
Western BulldogsGeelongTelstra Dome84.9% 14.0%
CarltonMelbourneTelstra Dome87.2% 11.9%
AdelaideWest CoastAAMI Stadium89.1% 10.2%
BrisbanePort AdelaideGabba65.8% 32.4%
RichmondHawthornMCG20.3% 78.3%
St KildaNorth MelbourneTelstra Dome92.3% 7.1%
CollingwoodSydneyMCG72.2% 26.2%
FremantleEssendonSubiaco53.5% 44.5%

Total tips for the season: 111 from 160 (69.4%)

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