AFL 2009 Season - Round 22 Predictions

Finally a good week for the AFL tips since I started publishing them - tipping 7 out of 8 correct games, the game I missed being 1st place St Kilda losing to 13th placed North Melbourne. Still, some of the unusual predictions the model threw up were justified, the Western Bulldogs over Geelong in particular.

So here are the final tips for the home-and-away matches for the year, quite a few 50/50 propositions, and again it has tipped the Western Bulldogs as huge favourites in a game the bookies have Collingwood as slight favourites.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr 1	Pr 2
West Coast	Richmond	Subiaco	50.2%	47.7%
Geelong	Fremantle	Skilled Stadium	64.3%	33.8%
Hawthorn	Essendon	MCG	52.4%	45.5%
Carlton	Adelaide	Telstra Dome	45.8%	52.1%
Sydney	Brisbane	SCG	70.1%	28.2%
Port Adelaide	North Melbourne	AAMI Stadium	71.9%	26.5%
Melbourne	St Kilda	MCG	2.3%	97.5%
Collingwood	Western Bulldogs	Telstra Dome	14.4%	84.5%

Total tips for the season: 118 from 168 (70.2%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 3 Predictions

A decent week last weekend for the EPL model, correctly tipping 6 out of 10 results. The season tally is sitting on 54%, just a smidge below where we'd like to be to challenge for the top spot at
http://www.footytips.com.au/

Tipping just the one away team this week, Liverpool at Bolton. The only concern this round looks to be tipping Pompey over Man City - it's still too early in for the model to pick up on any inherent gain in form Man City have.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
29/08/2009	Blackburn Rovers	West Ham United	43%	30%	28%
30/08/2009	Bolton Wanderers	Liverpool	13%	21%	66%
30/08/2009	Chelsea	Burnley	88%	8%	4%
30/08/2009	Manchester United	Arsenal	54%	26%	19%
30/08/2009	Stoke City	Sunderland	51%	28%	22%
30/08/2009	Tottenham Hotspur	Birmingham City	65%	22%	13%
30/08/2009	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Hull City	53%	27%	20%
30/08/2009	Aston Villa	Fulham	56%	26%	18%
31/08/2009	Everton	Wigan Athletic	68%	20%	12%
31/08/2009	Portsmouth	Manchester City	36%	30%	33%

Total tips for the season: 14 from 26 (54%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 4 Predictions

The A-League model threw up 2 winners for the week, so we've dipped below 50% again for the season so far. Only one small bet for the week on Central Coast against Sydney was denied when they missed a last minute penalty.

Tipping a couple of away teams this week which is always a good sign - moreso that one of those teams is the Gold Coast, signs that the model has picked up on their form after only 3 games.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
28/08/2009	Adelaide United	North Queensland	Hindmarsh Stadium	47%	26%	27%
28/08/2009	Perth Glory	Melbourne Victory	Members Equity Stadium	31%	26%	42%
29/08/2009	Queensland Roar	Central Coast Mariners	Suncorp Stadium	47%	26%	28%
30/08/2009	Newcastle Jets	Gold Coast	EnergyAustralia Stadium	36%	27%	37%
30/08/2009	Sydney FC	New Zealand	Sydney Football Stadium	49%	25%	26%

Total tips for the season: 7 from 15 (46.7%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 2 Predictions - Part 2

The model performed quite well in the midweek games, tipping 4 out of 6 results correctly - taking the season tally to 8 correct predictions from 16 games - meaning as with the A-League we have reached the 50% mark, from which we should only improve.

A bit of analysis has come up with what seems to be a profitable betting strategy for the EPL model. Basically for teams playing at home, if they are rated at least 25% chance to win, and have a 15% overlay, then this becomes a bet. For away teams, provided they are at least a 30% chance to win, then any advantage over the bookmaker becomes a bet. It is rare to bet on a drawn outcome given, so the best advice would be to just leave these alone. For more information on how to calculate if an advantage over the bookie exists, and to work out an optimal amount to bet, refer to my earlier posts on the Kelly betting criteria.

So without further ado here are the games for the upcoming weekend of English Premier League matches.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
23/08/2009	Arsenal	Portsmouth	81%	13%	6%
23/08/2009	Birmingham City	Stoke City	44%	30%	27%
23/08/2009	Hull City	Bolton Wanderers	35%	31%	34%
23/08/2009	Manchester City	Wolverhampton Wanderers	58%	25%	17%
23/08/2009	Sunderland	Blackburn Rovers	36%	31%	34%
23/08/2009	Wigan Athletic	Manchester United	10%	18%	73%
23/08/2009	Burnley	Everton	21%	27%	51%
24/08/2009	Fulham	Chelsea	13%	22%	65%
24/08/2009	West Ham United	Tottenham Hotspur	38%	30%	32%
24/08/2009	Liverpool	Aston Villa	73%	17%	9%

Total tips for the season: 8 from 16 (50%)

AFL 2009 Season - Round 21 Predictions

Murphy's Law still kicking around - only managing to tip 3 winners last week, combined with the 2.5 winners from round 19, when the lowest round I had prior to making these tips public was 4.

Anyway we soldier on, though looking at the first game has cause to make me nervous, having the Western Bulldogs as an 85% chance against Geelong - mainly due to the profile of players selected. The player-based aspect of the model will be getting a serious overall in the off-season, but as it stands it is sitting on 111 tips so far, so hopefully this game is an exception rather than the rule. This game aside, the other predictions look quite reasonable.

Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr 1	Pr 2
Western Bulldogs	Geelong	Telstra Dome	84.9%	14.0%
Carlton	Melbourne	Telstra Dome	87.2%	11.9%
Adelaide	West Coast	AAMI Stadium	89.1%	10.2%
Brisbane	Port Adelaide	Gabba	65.8%	32.4%
Richmond	Hawthorn	MCG	20.3%	78.3%
St Kilda	North Melbourne	Telstra Dome	92.3%	7.1%
Collingwood	Sydney	MCG	72.2%	26.2%
Fremantle	Essendon	Subiaco	53.5%	44.5%

Total tips for the season: 111 from 160 (69.4%)

A-League 2009/10 Season - Round 3 Predictions

A decent week of tipping in week 2, tipping all home teams and having 3 of them win. That brings the season average up to 50% so far - if we can stay above that figure for the rest of the season I'll be happy.

A bit of analysis has shown that there is some consistent profit to be made by betting on home teams where the probability of winning is less than 55%, yet still have an advantage over the bookie (see earlier posts regarding the Kelly betting method for further discussions on this). Having said that, I'd avoid betting on games involving Gold Coast or North Queensland for a while yet until their ratings stabilise somewhat.

For the first time this season the model has thrown up a tip on an away team. The home team dominance a testament to the fact that given then fickle nature of form in the A-League, even a slim case of home-team advantage will win out.

Date	Team 1	Team 2	Venue	Pr T1	Pr Draw	Pr T2
21/08/2009	Adelaide United	Gold Coast	Hindmarsh Stadium	43%	26%	31%
22/08/2009	Central Coast Mariners	Sydney FC	Bluetongue Stadium	40%	27%	33%
22/08/2009	North Queensland	Melbourne Victory	Dairy Farmers Stadium	36%	27%	38%
23/08/2009	Queensland Roar	New Zealand	Suncorp Stadium	51%	25%	24%
23/08/2009	Perth Glory	Newcastle Jets	Members Equity Stadium	37%	27%	36%

Total tips for the season: 5 from 10 (50%)

EPL 2009/10 Season - Week 2 Predictions

An average start to the 2009-10 Premier League season, only managing to correctly tip 4 out of 10 winners - even more average when you consider that there were no draws involved. The two teams that have supposedly improved in the off-season, Tottenham and Manchester City, both recorded impressive wins so as mentioend previously if these teams keep doing well then the model will react to this before too long.

Most teams are involved in mid-week game so here they are - no real surprises here.

Date	Home Team	Away Team	Pr Home	Pr Draw	Pr Away
18/08/2009	Sunderland	Chelsea	8%	16%	76%
18/08/2009	Wigan Athletic	Wolverhampton Wanderers	49%	28%	23%
19/08/2009	Birmingham City	Portsmouth	41%	30%	29%
19/08/2009	Burnley	Manchester United	8%	15%	77%
19/08/2009	Hull City	Tottenham Hotspur	24%	29%	47%
19/08/2009	Liverpool	Stoke City	84%	11%	5%

Total tips for the season: 4 from 10 (40%)