World Cup Match Predictions - Final and 3rd-Place Playoff

Here are the predictions for the final of the World Cup, along with the 3rd-place playoff.

The model has gone fanatstically well throughout the World Cup - making around 30% ROI for the tournament, and even more if you were smart about which of the group games to bet on.

Probably not a lot of action betting-wise.  The Dutch are slight value as they have been throughout the tournament, so you could do a lot worse then back them to win in the 90 minutes.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Final	Netherlands	Spain	31.7%	33.9%	34.5%
3rd Place	Uruguay	Germany	18.3%	29.6%	52.1%

World Cup Match Predictions - Semi Finals

The Quarter-finals were another great result for the model - with collects on the wins by Germany, Netherlands and Spain.

So down to the last 4 now, and for the most part the model is in line with the bookmakers.  There may be an opportunity for a small bet on the draw in the Germany - Spain game, but you'll have to shop around to get good odds.

As always remember these predictions are to the end of 90 minutes.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Semi Finals	Uruguay	Netherlands	14%	26%	59%
Semi Finals	Germany	Spain	28%	33%	38%

World Cup Match Predictions - Quarter Finals

Down to the last 8 of the World Cup now, and the soccer model shows no signs of slowing down. Big bets, abd big wins, on Spain and teh Netherlands enough to see the model win 26% ROI alone on the Round of 16 games.

Keep in mind the predictions below are for the result at the end of 90 minutes

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Quarter Finals	Uruguay	Ghana	55%	28%	16%
Quarter Finals	Netherlands	Brazil	26%	33%	41%
Quarter Finals	Argentina	Germany	35%	34%	31%
Quarter Finals	Paraguay	Spain	8%	18%	74%

World Cup Match Predictions - Round of 16

Now half the teams have been eliminated, and we're down to the knockout stages.  As expected the 3rd round of games wasn't as profitable as the previous rounds - although they still broke even, and indeed if you were smart and left out dubious games like Mexico vs Uruguay, France vs South Africa and Portugal vs Brazil where the results didn't affect who went through, then you woudl have been well in front again.

The predictions below are for the games in the round of 16 - and keep in mind these predictions are for the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation time - pretty much all bookmakers will offer this market.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Round of 16	Uruguay	Korea Republic	53%	29%	18%
Round of 16	Mexico	Argentina	22%	32%	46%
Round of 16	USA	Ghana	43%	33%	24%
Round of 16	England	Germany	35%	34%	31%
Round of 16	Netherlands	Slovakia	82%	13%	5%
Round of 16	Japan	Paraguay	30%	34%	36%
Round of 16	Brazil	Chile	61%	26%	14%
Round of 16	Portugal	Spain	14%	26%	59%

World Cup Match Predictions - Round 3

Well the model has gone fantastically  so far in the World Cup - making 54% ROI on the first 32 games played, and that includes backing favourites, long-shots and the draw as well.  The graph below shows how the profits have kept coming in betting to a constant kelly bank

Below are the predictions for the round 3 games of the World Cup - though I would advise to be extremely cautious bettign on any of these games given the stage of the tournament.  Some teams are already eliminated and will liekly play some 2nd-string players.  Some teams are assured of going through and will liekly rest key players.  And then there's the case of Group A where a draw between Mexico and Uruguay will see them both through at the expense of France and hosts South Africa -and to make thing even more interesting a win by Mexico would see them top the group and avoid Argentina in the round of 16 - so really who knows what will happen tonight.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Group	Mexico	Uruguay	40%	33%	27%
Group	France	South Africa	39%	33%	28%
Group	Nigeria	Korea Republic	22%	32%	46%
Group	Greece	Argentina	11%	22%	67%
Group	Slovenia	England	11%	22%	67%
Group	USA	Algeria	65%	24%	12%
Group	Ghana	Germany	14%	26%	59%
Group	Australia	Serbia	23%	32%	45%
Group	Slovakia	Italy	10%	21%	70%
Group	Paraguay	New Zealand	63%	24%	12%
Group	Denmark	Japan	41%	33%	26%
Group	Cameroon	Netherlands	5%	12%	84%
Group	Portugal	Brazil	11%	22%	67%
Group	Korea DPR	Côte d'Ivoire	12%	23%	65%
Group	Chile	Spain	18%	29%	52%
Group	Switzerland	Honduras	46%	32%	22%

World Cup Tournament Predictions

As with the match predictions, these are better late than never.

Below I present the predictions of every team to make every stage of the World Cup.  I simulate the tournament 100,000 times, with each team's rating after every simulated match going up or down depending on the result of that game - hence if a minnow happens to progress deeply into the tournament their rating will have gone up accordingly.

Shown below is the probability of every team to top their group, qualify for the round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, final, and win the World Cup.  I'll update these as often as I remember to, but please note when I have said these predictions were last updated.

Current Prior to games on Monday 5th July

Group A	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Mexico	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
France	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Uruguay	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	22.7%	28.1%	8.8%
South Africa	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group B	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Argentina	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Korea Republic	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Greece	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Nigeria	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group C	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
England	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
USA	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Slovenia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Algeria	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group D	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Germany	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	33.8%	44.9%	23.6%
Serbia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Australia	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Ghana	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group E	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Netherlands	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	14.5%	71.9%	36.7%
Denmark	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Japan	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Cameroon	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group F	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Italy	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Paraguay	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Slovakia	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
New Zealand	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group G	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Brazil	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Portugal	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Côte d'Ivoire	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Korea DPR	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Group H	Top Group	Make Knockout Stage	Make Quarter Finals	Make Semi Finals	Win 3rd Place	Make Final	Win Final
Spain	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	29.1%	55.1%	30.9%
Chile	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Switzerland	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Honduras	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

World Cup Match Predictions

A little late I'll admit, but better late than never.  I'd recently gone over how my predictions for the World Cup matches would have gone and was blown away - I'd be in front to the tune of 80% ROI so far - had I bet from the start.  Sadly I only started better as of last night - but still great wins to Greece over Nigeria and Mexico over France have shown some material profit.  Also previously wins to South Korea over Greece, Slovenia over Algeria, Japan over Cameroon and New Zealand's opening draw have seen the profitability of the model sky-rocket.


As they say though, talk is cheap.  So without further ado here are my predictions for the group matches of the world cup.  The matches in yellow below will changes slightly depending on the results of each team's previous game - and this will be updated in time.

Stage	Team 1	Team 2	Pr Team 1	Pr Draw	Pr Team 2
Group	South Africa	Mexico	23%	32%	45%
Group	Uruguay	France	31%	34%	35%
Group	Argentina	Nigeria	64%	24%	12%
Group	Korea Republic	Greece	49%	31%	20%
Group	England	USA	58%	27%	15%
Group	Algeria	Slovenia	17%	28%	55%
Group	Germany	Australia	65%	23%	12%
Group	Serbia	Ghana	39%	33%	27%
Group	Netherlands	Denmark	74%	18%	8%
Group	Japan	Cameroon	39%	33%	28%
Group	Italy	Paraguay	52%	30%	18%
Group	New Zealand	Slovakia	23%	32%	45%
Group	Côte d'Ivoire	Portugal	23%	32%	45%
Group	Brazil	Korea DPR	93%	5%	2%
Group	Honduras	Chile	16%	28%	57%
Group	Spain	Switzerland	79%	15%	6%
Group	South Africa	Uruguay	28%	34%	38%
Group	France	Mexico	29%	34%	37%
Group	Greece	Nigeria	31%	34%	36%
Group	Argentina	Korea Republic	50%	30%	19%
Group	Germany	Serbia	59%	27%	15%
Group	Slovenia	USA	21%	31%	48%
Group	England	Algeria	86%	10%	4%
Group	Ghana	Australia	33%	34%	33%
Group	Netherlands	Japan	77%	16%	7%
Group	Cameroon	Denmark	24%	33%	43%
Group	Slovakia	Paraguay	20%	30%	50%
Group	Italy	New Zealand	79%	15%	6%
Group	Brazil	Côte d'Ivoire	78%	16%	6%
Group	Portugal	Korea DPR	75%	18%	8%
Group	Chile	Switzerland	46%	32%	22%
Group	Spain	Honduras	79%	15%	6%
Group	France	South Africa	45%	32%	23%
Group	Nigeria	Korea Republic	22%	32%	46%
Group	Greece	Argentina	11%	23%	67%
Group	Slovenia	England	9%	20%	72%
Group	USA	Algeria	69%	21%	10%
Group	Ghana	Germany	11%	23%	65%
Group	Australia	Serbia	28%	33%	39%
Group	Slovakia	Italy	10%	21%	69%
Group	Paraguay	New Zealand	62%	25%	13%
Group	Denmark	Japan	37%	34%	29%
Group	Cameroon	Netherlands	5%	14%	81%
Group	Portugal	Brazil	10%	22%	68%
Group	Korea DPR	Côte d'Ivoire	12%	24%	64%
Group	Chile	Spain	17%	29%	54%
Group	Switzerland	Honduras	48%	31%	21%